Cheikh Loucoubar

Chains of transmission and control of Ebola virus disease in Conakry, Guinea, in 2014: an observational study

BACKGROUND An epidemic of Ebola virus disease of unprecedented size continues in parts of west Africa. For the first time, large urban centres such as Conakry, the capital of Guinea, are affected. We did an observational study of patients with Ebola virus disease in three regions of Guinea, including Conakry, aiming to map the routes of transmission and assess the effect of interventions. METHODS Between Feb 10, 2014, and Aug 25, 2014, we obtained data from the linelist of all confirmed and probable cases in Guinea (as of Sept 16, 2014), a laboratory database of information about patients, and interviews with patients and their families and neighbours. With this information, we mapped chains of transmission, identified which setting infections most probably originated from (community, hospitals, or funerals), and computed the context-specific and overall reproduction numbers. FINDINGS Of 193 confirmed and probable cases of Ebola virus disease reported in Conakry, Boffa, and Télimélé, 152 (79%) were positioned in chains of transmission. Health-care workers contributed little to transmission. In March, 2014, individuals with Ebola virus disease who were not health-care workers infected a mean of 2·3 people (95% CI 1·6-3·2): 1·4 (0·9-2·2) in the community, 0·4 (0·1-0·9) in hospitals, and 0·5 (0·2-1·0) at funerals. After the implementation of infection control in April, the reproduction number in hospitals and at funerals reduced to lower than 0·1. In the community, the reproduction number dropped by 50% for patients that were admitted to hospital, but remained unchanged for those that were not. In March, hospital transmissions constituted 35% (seven of 20) of all transmissions and funeral transmissions constituted 15% (three); but from April to the end of the study period, they constituted only 9% (11 of 128) and 4% (five), respectively. 82% (119 of 145) of transmission occurred in the community and 72% (105) between family members. Our simulations show that a 10% increase in hospital admissions could have reduced the length of chains by 26% (95% CI 4-45). INTERPRETATION In Conakry, interventions had the potential to stop the epidemic, but reintroductions of the disease and poor cooperation of a few families led to prolonged low-level spread, showing the challenges of Ebola virus disease control in large urban centres. Monitoring of chains of transmission is crucial to assess and optimise local control strategies for Ebola virus disease. FUNDING Labex IBEID, Reacting, PREDEMICS, NIGMS MIDAS initiative, Institut Pasteur de Dakar.

Development and deployment of a rapid recombinase polymerase amplification Ebola virus detection assay in Guinea in 2015.

In the absence of a vaccine or specific treatments for Ebola virus disease (EVD), early identification of cases is crucial for the control of EVD epidemics. We evaluated a new extraction kit (SpeedXtract (SE), Qiagen) on sera and swabs in combination with an improved diagnostic reverse transcription recombinase polymerase amplification assay for the detection of Ebola virus (EBOV-RT-RPA). The performance of combined extraction and detection was best for swabs. Sensitivity and specificity of the combined SE and EBOV-RT-RPA were tested in a mobile laboratory consisting of a mobile glovebox and a Diagnostics-in-a-Suitcase powered by a battery and solar panel, deployed to Matoto Conakry, Guinea as part of the reinforced surveillance strategy in April 2015 to reach the goal of zero cases. The EBOV-RT-RPA was evaluated in comparison to two real-time PCR assays. Of 928 post-mortem swabs, 120 tested positive, and the combined SE and EBOV-RT-RPA yielded a sensitivity and specificity of 100% in reference to one real-time RT-PCR assay. Another widely used real-time RT-PCR was much less sensitive than expected. Results were provided very fast within 30 to 60 min, and the field deployment of the mobile laboratory helped improve burial management and community engagement.

Vector Competence of Culex neavei and Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culicidae) from Senegal for Lineages 1, 2, Koutango and a Putative New Lineage of West Nile Virus

West Nile virus (WN virus) is one of the most widespread arbovirus and exhibits a great genetic diversity with 8 lineages, at least 4 (1, 2, Koutango, and putative new) are present in Africa. In West Africa, Culex neavei and Culex quinquefasciatus are considered as potential vectors for WN virus transmission in sylvatic or urban context. We analyzed the vector competence of these Culex species from Senegal for African lineages and envelope proteins sequences of viral strains used. We showed that lineage 1 is transmitted by both Culex mosquitoes, whereas the putative new lineage 8 is transmitted only by Cx. neavei. Our findings suggest that genetic variability can affect vector competence and depend on mosquito. However, when considering the infective life rate, the mosquito population seems to be inefficient for WN virus transmission in the field and could explain the low impact of WN virus in Africa.

Rift Valley Fever Outbreak, Southern Mauritania, 2012

Rift Valley Fever Outbreak, Mauritania, 2012

An exhaustive, non-euclidean, non-parametric data mining tool for unraveling the complexity of biological systems--novel insights into malaria.

Complex, high-dimensional data sets pose significant analytical challenges in the post-genomic era. Such data sets are not exclusive to genetic analyses and are also pertinent to epidemiology. There has been considerable effort to develop hypothesis-free data mining and machine learning methodologies. However, current methodologies lack exhaustivity and general applicability. Here we use a novel non-parametric, non-euclidean data mining tool, HyperCube®, to explore exhaustively a complex epidemiological malaria data set by searching for over density of events in m-dimensional space. Hotspots of over density correspond to strings of variables, rules, that determine, in this case, the occurrence of Plasmodium falciparum clinical malaria episodes. The data set contained 46,837 outcome events from 1,653 individuals and 34 explanatory variables. The best predictive rule contained 1,689 events from 148 individuals and was defined as: individuals present during 1992–2003, aged 1–5 years old, having hemoglobin AA, and having had previous Plasmodium malariae malaria parasite infection ≤10 times. These individuals had 3.71 times more P. falciparum clinical malaria episodes than the general population. We validated the rule in two different cohorts. We compared and contrasted the HyperCube® rule with the rules using variables identified by both traditional statistical methods and non-parametric regression tree methods. In addition, we tried all possible sub-stratified quantitative variables. No other model with equal or greater representativity gave a higher Relative Risk. Although three of the four variables in the rule were intuitive, the effect of number of P. malariae episodes was not. HyperCube® efficiently sub-stratified quantitative variables to optimize the rule and was able to identify interactions among the variables, tasks not easy to perform using standard data mining methods. Search of local over density in m-dimensional space, explained by easily interpretable rules, is thus seemingly ideal for generating hypotheses for large datasets to unravel the complexity inherent in biological systems.

High number of previous Plasmodium falciparum clinical episodes increases risk of future episodes in a sub-group of individuals.

There exists great disparity in the number of clinical P. falciparum episodes among children of the same age and living in similar conditions. The epidemiological determinants of such disparity are unclear. We used a data-mining approach to explore a nineteen-year longitudinal malaria cohort study dataset from Senegal and identify variables associated with increased risk of malaria episodes. These were then verified using classical statistics and replicated in a second cohort. In addition to age, we identified a novel high-risk group of children in whom the history of P. falciparum clinical episodes greatly increased risk of further episodes. Age and a high number of previous falciparum clinical episodes not only play major roles in explaining the risk of P. falciparum episodes but also are risk factors for different groups of people. Combined, they explain the majority of falciparum clinical attacks. Contrary to what is widely believed, clinical immunity to P. falciparum does not de facto occur following many P. falciparum clinical episodes. There exist a sub-group of children who suffer repeated clinical episodes. In addition to posing an important challenge for population stratification during clinical trials, this sub-group disproportionally contributes to the disease burden and may necessitate specific prevention and control measures.

Serological signatures of declining exposure following intensification of integrated malaria control in two rural Senegalese communities

Recent control scale-up has reduced malaria in many areas but new tools are needed to monitor further progress, including indicators of decreasing exposure to parasite infection. Although serology is considered a promising approach in this regard, the serological impact of control interventions has been so far studied using indirect quantification of exposure. Cohort surveys concomitantly recording entomological and malariometric indices have been conducted in two Senegalese settings where supervised control intensification implemented in 2006 shifted malaria from historically holoendemic in Dielmo and mesoendemic in Ndiop to hypoendemic in both settings by 2013. We analyse here serological signatures of declining transmission using archived blood samples. Responses against ten pre-erythrocytic and erythrocytic antigens from Plasmodium falciparum and P. malariae alongside an Anopheles gambiae salivary gland antigen were analysed. Cross-sectional surveys conducted before (2002) and after (2013) control intensification showed a major impact of control intensification in both settings. The age-associated prevalence, magnitude and breadth of the IgG responses to all antigens were village-specific in 2002. In 2013, remarkably similar patterns were observed in both villages, with marginal responses against all parasite antigens in the 0-5y children and reduced responses in all previously seropositive age groups. Waning of humoral responses of individuals who were immune at the time of control intensification was studied from 2006 to 2013 using yearly samplings. Longitudinal data were analysed using the Cochran-Armittage trend test and an age-related reversible catalytic conversion model. This showed that the antigen-specific antibody declines were more rapid in older children than adults. There was a strong association of antibody decline with the declining entomological inoculation rate. We thus identified serological markers of declining exposure to malaria parasites that should help future monitoring of progress towards malaria elimination.

Longitudinal analysis of antibody responses in symptomatic malaria cases do not mirror parasite transmission in peri-urban area of Cote d’Ivoire between 2010 and 2013

Background In the agenda towards malaria eradication, assessment of both malaria exposure and efficacy of anti-vectorial and therapeutic strategies is a key component of management and the follow-up of field interventions. The simultaneous use of several antigens (Ags) as serological markers has the potential for accurate evaluation of malaria exposure. Here we aimed to measure the longitudinal evolution of the background levels of immunity in an urban setting in confirmed clinical cases of malaria. Methods A retrospective serological cross-sectional study on was carried out using 234 samples taken from 2010 to 2013 in peri-urban sentinel facility of Cote d’Ivoire. Antibody responses to recombinant proteins or BSA-peptides, 8 Plasmodium falciparum (PfAMA1, PfMSP4, PfMSP1, PfEMP1-DBL1α1-PF13, PfLSA1-41, PfLSA3-NR2, PfGLURP and PfCSP), one P. malariae (PmCSP) and one Anopheles gambiae salivary (gSG6-P1) antigens were measured using magnetic bead-based multiplex immunoassay (MBA). Total anti- P. falciparum IgG responses against schizont lysate from african 07/03 strain (adapted to culture) and 3D7 strain was measured by ELISA. Results High prevalence (7–93%) and levels of antibody responses to most of the antigens were evidenced. However, analysis showed only marginal decreasing trend of Ab responses from 2010 to 2013 that did not parallel the reduction of clinical malaria prevalence following the implementation of intervention in this area. There was a significant inverse correlation between Ab responses and parasitaemia (P<10−3, rho = 0.3). The particular recruitment of asymptomatic individuals in 2011 underlined a high background level of immunity almost equivalent to symptomatic patients, possibly obscuring observable yearly variations. Conclusion The use of cross-sectional clinical malaria surveys and MBA can help to identify endemic sites where control measures have unequal impact providing relevant information about population immunity and possible decrease of transmission. However, when immunity is substantially boosted despite observable clinical decline, a larger cohort including asymptomatic recruitment is needed to monitor the impact of control measures on level of immunity.

Asthma and atopic dermatitis are associated with increased risk of clinical Plasmodium falciparum malaria

Objectives To assess the impact of atopy and allergy on the risk of clinical malaria. Design A clinical and immunological allergy cross-sectional survey in a birth cohort of 175 children from 1 month to 14 years of age followed for up to 15 years in a longitudinal open cohort study of malaria in Senegal. Malaria incidence data were available for 143 of these children (aged 4 months to 14 years of age) for up to 15 years. Mixed-model regression analysis was used to determine the impact of allergy status on malaria incidence, adjusting for age, gender, sickle-cell trait and force of infection. Main outcome measures Asthma, allergic rhinoconjunctivitis and atopic dermatitis status, the number of clinical Plasmodium falciparum malaria episodes since birth and associated parasite density. Results 12% of the children were classified as asthmatic and 10% as having atopic dermatitis. These groups had respectively a twofold (OR 2.12 95%; CI 1.46 to 3.08; p=8×10−5) and threefold (OR 3.15; 1.56 to 6.33; p=1.3×10−3) increase in the risk of clinical P falciparum malaria once older than the age of peak incidence of clinical malaria (3–4 years of age). They also presented with higher P falciparum parasite densities (asthma: mean 105.3 parasites/μL±SE 41.0 vs 51.3±9.7; p=6.2×10−3. Atopic dermatitis: 135.4±70.7 vs 52.3±11.0; p=0.014). There was no effect of allergy on the number of non-malaria clinical presentations. Individuals with allergic rhinoconjunctivitis did not have an increased risk of clinical malaria nor any difference in parasite densities. Conclusions These results demonstrate that asthma and atopic dermatitis delay the development of clinical immunity to P falciparum. Despite the encouraging decrease in malaria incidence rates in Africa, a significant concern is the extent to which the increase in allergy will exacerbate the burden of malaria. Given the demonstrated antiparasitic effect of antihistamines, administration to atopic children will likely reduce the burden of clinical malaria in these children, increase the efficacy of first-line treatment antimalarials and alleviate the non-infectious consequences of atopy.

Biological and phylogenetic characteristics of West African lineages of West Nile virus

The West Nile virus (WNV), isolated in 1937, is an arbovirus (arthropod-borne virus) that infects thousands of people each year. Despite its burden on global health, little is known about the virus’ biological and evolutionary dynamics. As several lineages are endemic in West Africa, we obtained the complete polyprotein sequence from three isolates from the early 1990s, each representing a different lineage. We then investigated differences in growth behavior and pathogenicity for four distinct West African lineages in arthropod (Ap61) and primate (Vero) cell lines, and in mice. We found that genetic differences, as well as viral-host interactions, could play a role in the biological properties in different WNV isolates in vitro, such as: (i) genome replication, (ii) protein translation, (iii) particle release, and (iv) virulence. Our findings demonstrate the endemic diversity of West African WNV strains and support future investigations into (i) the nature of WNV emergence, (ii) neurological tropism, and (iii) host adaptation.