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Dive into the research topics where Christopher Kadow is active.

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Featured researches published by Christopher Kadow.


Geophysical Research Letters | 2015

Decadal hindcasts initialized using observed surface wind stress: Evaluation and prediction out to 2024

Malte Thoma; Richard J. Greatbatch; Christopher Kadow; R. Gerdes

We use surface air temperature to evaluate the decadal forecast skill of the fully coupled Max Planck Institut Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) initialized using only surface wind stress applied to the ocean component of the model (Modini: Model initialization by partially coupled spin-up). Our analysis shows that the greenhouse gas forcing alone results in a significant forecast skill on the 2–5 and 6–9 year range even for uninitialized hindcasts. For the first forecast year, the forecast skill of Modini is generally comparable with previous initialization procedures applied to MPI-ESM. But only Modini is able to generate a significant skill (correlation) in the tropical Pacific for a 2–5 year (and to a lesser extent for a 6–9 year) hindcast. Modini is also better able to capture the observed hiatus in global warming in hindcast mode than the other methods. Finally, we present forecasts for 2015 and the average of years 2016–2019 and 2020–2024, predicting an end to the hiatus.


Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society | 2016

MiKlip - a National Research Project on Decadal Climate Prediction

Jochem Marotzke; Wolfgang A. Müller; F. S. E. Vamborg; Paul Becker; Ulrich Cubasch; Hendrik Feldmann; Frank Kaspar; C. Kottmeier; Camille Marini; Iuliia Polkova; Kerstin Prömmel; Henning W. Rust; Detlef Stammer; Uwe Ulbrich; Christopher Kadow; Armin Köhl; Jürgen Kröger; Tim Kruschke; Joaquim G. Pinto; Holger Pohlmann; Mark Reyers; Marc Schröder; Frank Sienz; Claudia Timmreck; Markus Ziese

AbstractMittelfristige Klimaprognose (MiKlip), an 8-yr German national research project on decadal climate prediction, is organized around a global prediction system comprising the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) together with an initialization procedure and a model evaluation system. This paper summarizes the lessons learned from MiKlip so far; some are purely scientific, others concern strategies and structures of research that target future operational use.Three prediction system generations have been constructed, characterized by alternative initialization strategies; the later generations show a marked improvement in hindcast skill for surface temperature. Hindcast skill is also identified for multiyear-mean European summer surface temperatures, extratropical cyclone tracks, the quasi-biennial oscillation, and ocean carbon uptake, among others. Regionalization maintains or slightly enhances the skill in European surface temperature inherited from the global model and also displays h...


Geophysical Research Letters | 2016

The impact of stratospheric volcanic aerosol on decadal‐scale climate predictions

Claudia Timmreck; Holger Pohlmann; Sebastian Illing; Christopher Kadow

To understand the impact of volcanic aerosol on multiyear seasonal and decadal climate predictions, we performed Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5-type hindcasts without volcanic aerosol using the German Mittelfristige Klimaprognosen prediction system and compared them to the corresponding simulations including aerosols. Our results show that volcanic aerosol significantly affects the prediction skill for global mean surface air temperature in the first five years after strong volcanic eruptions. Also, on the regional scale a volcanic imprint on decadal-scale variability is detectable. Neglecting volcanic aerosol leads to a reduced prediction skill over the tropical and subtropical Atlantic, Indic, and west Pacific but to an improvement over the tropical east Pacific, where the model has in general no skill. Multiseasonal differences in the skill for seasonal mean temperatures are evident over Continental Europe with significant skill loss due to neglection of volcanic aerosol in boreal winter over central Europe, Scandinavia and over southeastern Europe, and the East Mediterranean in boreal summer.


Tellus A | 2014

Evaluating decadal predictions of northern hemispheric cyclone frequencies

Tim Kruschke; Henning W. Rust; Christopher Kadow; Gregor C. Leckebusch; Uwe Ulbrich

Mid-latitudinal cyclones are a key factor for understanding regional anomalies in primary meteorological parameters such as temperature or precipitation. Extreme cyclones can produce notable impacts on human society and economy, for example, by causing enormous economic losses through wind damage. Based on 41 annually initialised (1961–2001) hindcast ensembles, this study evaluates the ability of a single-model decadal forecast system (MPI-ESM-LR) to provide skilful probabilistic three-category forecasts (enhanced, normal or decreased) of winter (ONDJFM) extra-tropical cyclone frequency over the Northern Hemisphere with lead times from 1 yr up to a decade. It is shown that these predictions exhibit some significant skill, mainly for lead times of 2–5 yr, especially over the North Atlantic and Pacific. Skill for intense cyclones is generally higher than for all detected systems. A comparison of decadal hindcasts from two different initialisation techniques indicates that initialising from reanalysis fields yields slightly better results for the first forecast winter (month 10–15), while initialisation based on an assimilation experiment provides better skill for lead times between 2 and 5 yr. The reasons and mechanisms behind this predictive skill are subject to future work. Preliminary analyses suggest a strong relationship of the models skill over the North Atlantic with the ability to predict upper ocean temperatures modulating lower troposphere baroclinicity for the respective area and time scales.


Earth System Dynamics Discussions | 2017

Seasonal prediction skill of East Asian summer monsoon in CMIP5-Models

Bo Huang; Ulrich Cubasch; Christopher Kadow

7 The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is an important part of the global climate system 8 and plays a vital role in the Asian climate. Its sub-seasonal-to-seasonal predictability is a 9 long-standing issue within the monsoon scientist community. In this study, we analyse the 10 seasonal (with six months lead time) prediction skill of the EASM rainfall and its associated 11 general circulation in non-initialised and initialised simulations for the years 1979-2005 12 performed by six prediction systems (i.e., the BCC-CSM1-1, the CanCM4, the GFDL13 CM2p1, the HadCM3, the MIROC5 and the MPI-ESM-LR) from the Coupled Model 14 Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP 5). We find that the simulation of the zonal wind is 15 significantly improved in initialised simulations compared to non-initialized simulations. 16 Based on the knowledge that zonal wind indices can be used as potential predictors for the 17 EASM, we selected an EASM index based upon the zonal wind for further analysis. The 18 assessment show that the GFDL-CM2p1 and the MIROC5 add prediction skill in simulating 19 the EASM index with initialisation, the BCC-CSM1-1, the CanCM4, and the MPI-ESM-LR 20 change the skill insignificantly, and the HadCM3 indicates a decreased skill score. The 21 different response to the initialisation can be traced back to the ability of the models to 22 capture the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation)-EASM coupled mode, particularly the 23 Southern Oscillation-EASM coupled mode. In summary, we find that the GFDL-CM2p1 and 24 the MIROC5 are capable to predict the EASM on a seasonal time-scale after initialisation. 25


Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems | 2017

Decadal climate predictions improved by ocean ensemble dispersion filtering

Christopher Kadow; Sebastian Illing; Igor Kröner; Uwe Ulbrich; Ulrich Cubasch

Decadal predictions by Earth system models aim to capture the state and phase of the climate several years in advance. Atmosphere-ocean interaction plays an important role for such climate forecasts. While short-term weather forecasts represent an initial value problem and long-term climate projections represent a boundary condition problem, the decadal climate prediction falls in-between these two timescales. In recent years, more precise initialization techniques of coupled Earth system models and increased ensemble sizes have improved decadal predictions. However, climate models in general start losing the initialized signal and its predictive skill from one forecast year to the next. Here we show that the climate prediction skill of an Earth system model can be improved by a shift of the ocean state towards the ensemble mean of its individual members at seasonal intervals. We found that this procedure, called ensemble dispersion filter, results in more accurate results than the standard decadal prediction. Global mean and regional temperature, precipitation, and winter cyclone predictions show an increased skill up to 5 years ahead. Furthermore, the novel technique outperforms predictions with larger ensembles and higher resolution. Our results demonstrate how decadal climate predictions benefit from ocean ensemble dispersion filtering towards the ensemble mean.


Geophysical Research Letters | 2013

Improved forecast skill in the tropics in the new MiKlip decadal climate predictions

Holger Pohlmann; Wolfgang A. Müller; K. Kulkarni; M. Kameswarrao; Daniela Matei; F. S. E. Vamborg; Christopher Kadow; Sebastian Illing; Jochem Marotzke


Meteorologische Zeitschrift | 2016

Probabilistic evaluation of decadal prediction skill regarding Northern Hemisphere winter storms

Tim Kruschke; Henning W. Rust; Christopher Kadow; Wolfgang A. Müller; Holger Pohlmann; Gregor C. Leckebusch; Uwe Ulbrich


Meteorologische Zeitschrift | 2016

Evaluation of forecasts by accuracy and spread in the MiKlip decadal climate prediction system

Christopher Kadow; Sebastian Illing; Oliver Kunst; Henning W. Rust; Holger Pohlmann; Wolfgang A. Müller; Ulrich Cubasch


Journal of open research software | 2014

MurCSS: A Tool for Standardized Evaluation of Decadal Hindcast Systems

Sebastian Illing; Christopher Kadow; Kunst Oliver; Ulrich Cubasch

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Ulrich Cubasch

Free University of Berlin

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Uwe Ulbrich

Free University of Berlin

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Henning W. Rust

Free University of Berlin

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Tim Kruschke

Free University of Berlin

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