Cuiling Xu

Risk Factors for Severe Illness with 2009 Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) Virus Infection in China

BACKGROUND Data on risk factors for severe outcomes from 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus infection are limited outside of developed countries. METHODS We reviewed medical charts to collect data from patients hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed 2009 H1N1 infection who were identified across China during the period from September 2009 through February 2010, and we analyzed potential risk factors associated with severe illness (defined as illness requiring intensive care unit admission or resulting in death). RESULTS Among 9966 case patients, the prevalence of chronic medical conditions (33% vs 14%), pregnancy (15% vs 7%), or obesity (19% vs 14%) was significantly higher in those patients with severe illness than it was in those with less severe disease. In multivariable analyses, among nonpregnant case patients aged ≥ 2 years, having a chronic medical condition significantly increased the risk of severe outcome among all age groups, and obesity was a risk factor among those <60 years of age. The risk of severe illness among pregnant case patients was significantly higher for those in the second and third trimesters. The risk of severe illness was increased when oseltamivir treatment was initiated ≥ 5 days after illness onset (odds ratio, 1.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-1.67). For persons <60 years of age, the prevalence of obesity among case patients with severe illness was significantly greater than it was among those without severe illness or among the general population. CONCLUSIONS Risk factors for severe 2009 H1N1 illness in China were similar to those observed in developed countries, but there was a lower prevalence of chronic medical conditions and a lower prevalence of obesity. Obesity was a risk factor among case patients < 60 years of age. Early initiation of oseltamivir treatment was most beneficial, and there was an increased risk of severe disease when treatment was started ≥ 5 days after illness onset.

Clinical Characteristics of 26 Human Cases of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A (H5N1) Virus Infection in China

Background While human cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) virus infection continue to increase globally, available clinical data on H5N1 cases are limited. We conducted a retrospective study of 26 confirmed human H5N1 cases identified through surveillance in China from October 2005 through April 2008. Methodology/Principal Findings Data were collected from hospital medical records of H5N1 cases and analyzed. The median age was 29 years (range 6–62) and 58% were female. Many H5N1 cases reported fever (92%) and cough (58%) at illness onset, and had lower respiratory findings of tachypnea and dyspnea at admission. All cases progressed rapidly to bilateral pneumonia. Clinical complications included acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS, 81%), cardiac failure (50%), elevated aminotransaminases (43%), and renal dysfunction (17%). Fatal cases had a lower median nadir platelet count (64.5×109 cells/L vs 93.0×109 cells/L, p = 0.02), higher median peak lactic dehydrogenase (LDH) level (1982.5 U/L vs 1230.0 U/L, p = 0.001), higher percentage of ARDS (94% [n = 16] vs 56% [n = 5], p = 0.034) and more frequent cardiac failure (71% [n = 12] vs 11% [n = 1], p = 0.011) than nonfatal cases. A higher proportion of patients who received antiviral drugs survived compared to untreated (67% [8/12] vs 7% [1/14], p = 0.003). Conclusions/Significance The clinical course of Chinese H5N1 cases is characterized by fever and cough initially, with rapid progression to lower respiratory disease. Decreased platelet count, elevated LDH level, ARDS and cardiac failure were associated with fatal outcomes. Clinical management of H5N1 cases should be standardized in China to include early antiviral treatment for suspected H5N1 cases.

Indications that Live Poultry Markets are a Major Source of Human H5N1 Influenza Virus Infection in China

ABSTRACT Human infections of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus have continued to occur in China without corresponding outbreaks in poultry, and there is little conclusive evidence of the source of these infections. Seeking to identify the source of the human infections, we sequenced 31 H5N1 viruses isolated from humans in China (2005 to 2010). We found a number of viral genotypes, not all of which have similar known avian virus counterparts. Guided by patient questionnaire data, we also obtained environmental samples from live poultry markets and dwellings frequented by six individuals prior to disease onset (2008 and 2009). H5N1 viruses were isolated from 4 of the 6 live poultry markets sampled. In each case, the genetic sequences of the environmental and corresponding human isolates were highly similar, demonstrating a link between human infection and live poultry markets. Therefore, infection control measures in live poultry markets are likely to reduce human H5N1 infection in China.

Monitoring Avian Influenza A(H7N9) Virus through National Influenza- like Illness Surveillance, China

In China during March 4–April 28, 2013, avian influenza A(H7N9) virus testing was performed on 20,739 specimens from patients with influenza-like illness in 10 provinces with confirmed human cases: 6 (0.03%) were positive, and increased numbers of unsubtypeable influenza-positive specimens were not seen. Careful monitoring and rapid characterization of influenza A(H7N9) and other influenza viruses remain critical.

Human Influenza A (H5N1) Cases, Urban Areas of People’s Republic of China, 2005–2006

We investigated potential sources of infection for 6 confirmed influenza A (H5N1) patients who resided in urban areas of People’s Republic of China. None had known exposure to sick poultry or poultry that died from illness, but all had visited wet poultry markets before illness.

Genetic tuning of the novel avian influenza A(H7N9) virus during interspecies transmission, China, 2013

A novel avian influenza A(H7N9) virus causing human infection emerged in February 2013 in China. To elucidate the mechanism of interspecies transmission, we compared the signature amino acids of avian influenza A(H7N9) viruses from human and non-human hosts and analysed the reassortants of 146 influenza A(H7N9) viruses with full genome sequences. We propose a genetic tuning procedure with continuous amino acid substitutions and reassorting that mediates host adaptation and interspecies transmission. When the early influenza A(H7N9) virus, containing ancestor haemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) genes similar to A/Shanghai/05 virus, circulated in waterfowl and transmitted to terrestrial poultry, it acquired an NA stalk deletion at amino acid positions 69 to 73. Then, receptor binding preference was tuned to increase the affinity to human-like receptors through HA G186V and Q226L mutations in terrestrial poultry. Additional mammalian adaptations such as PB2 E627K were selected in humans. The continual reassortation between H7N9 and H9N2 viruses resulted in multiple genotypes for further host adaptation. When we analysed a potential association of mutations and reassortants with clinical outcome, only the PB2 E627K mutation slightly increased the case fatality rate. Genetic tuning may create opportunities for further adaptation of influenza A(H7N9) and its potential to cause a pandemic.

The Seroprevalence of Pandemic Influenza H1N1 (2009) Virus in China

Background Mainland China experienced pandemic influenza H1N1 (2009) virus (pH1N1) with peak activity during November-December 2009. To understand the geographic extent, risk factors, and attack rate of pH1N1 infection in China we conducted a nationwide serological survey to determine the prevalence of antibodies to pH1N1. Methodology/Principal Findings Stored serum samples (n = 2,379) collected during 2006-2008 were used to estimate baseline serum reactogenicity to pH1N1. In January 2010, we used a multistage-stratified random sampling method to select 50,111 subjects who met eligibility criteria and collected serum samples and administered a standardized questionnaire. Antibody response to pH1N1 was measured using haemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay and the weighted seroprevalence was calculated using the Taylor series linearization method. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to examine risk factors for pH1N1 seropositivity. Baseline seroprevalence of pH1N1 antibody (HI titer ≥40) was 1.2%. The weighted seroprevalence of pH1N1 among the Chinese population was 21.5%(vaccinated: 62.0%; unvaccinated: 17.1%). Among unvaccinated participants, those aged 6-15 years (32.9%) and 16-24 years (30.3%) had higher seroprevalence compared with participants aged 25–59 years (10.7%) and ≥60 years (9.9%, P<0.0001). Children in kindergarten and students had higher odds of seropositivity than children in family care (OR: 1.36 and 2.05, respectively). We estimated that 207.7 million individuals (15.9%) experienced pH1N1 infection in China. Conclusions/Significance The Chinese population had low pre-existing immunity to pH1N1 and experienced a relatively high attack rate in 2009 of this virus. We recommend routine control measures such as vaccination to reduce transmission and spread of seasonal and pandemic influenza viruses.

Review Article: The Fraction of Influenza Virus Infections That Are Asymptomatic: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Background: The fraction of persons with influenza virus infection, who do not report any signs or symptoms throughout the course of infection is referred to as the asymptomatic fraction. Methods: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of published estimates of the asymptomatic fraction of influenza virus infections. We found that estimates of the asymptomatic fraction were reported from two different types of studies: first, outbreak investigations with short-term follow-up of potentially exposed persons and virologic confirmation of infections; second, studies conducted across epidemics typically evaluating rates of acute respiratory illness among persons with serologic evidence of infection, in some cases adjusting for background rates of illness from other causes. Results: Most point estimates from studies of outbreak investigations fell in the range 4%–28% with low heterogeneity (I2 = 0%) with a pooled mean of 16% (95% confidence interval = 13%, 19%). Estimates from the studies conducted across epidemics without adjustment were very heterogeneous (point estimates 0%–100%; I 2 = 97%), while estimates from studies that adjusted for background illnesses were more consistent with point estimates in the range 65%–85% and moderate heterogeneity (I2 = 58%). Variation in estimates could be partially explained by differences in study design and analysis, and inclusion of mild symptomatic illnesses as asymptomatic in some studies. Conclusions: Estimates of the asymptomatic fraction are affected by the study design, and the definitions of infection and symptomatic illness. Considerable differences between the asymptomatic fraction of infections confirmed by virologic versus serologic testing may indicate fundamental differences in the interpretation of these two indicators.

The Fraction of Influenza Virus Infections That Are Asymptomatic: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Background: The fraction of persons with influenza virus infection, who do not report any signs or symptoms throughout the course of infection is referred to as the asymptomatic fraction. Methods: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of published estimates of the asymptomatic fraction of influenza virus infections. We found that estimates of the asymptomatic fraction were reported from two different types of studies: first, outbreak investigations with short-term follow-up of potentially exposed persons and virologic confirmation of infections; second, studies conducted across epidemics typically evaluating rates of acute respiratory illness among persons with serologic evidence of infection, in some cases adjusting for background rates of illness from other causes. Results: Most point estimates from studies of outbreak investigations fell in the range 4%–28% with low heterogeneity (I2 = 0%) with a pooled mean of 16% (95% confidence interval = 13%, 19%). Estimates from the studies conducted across epidemics without adjustment were very heterogeneous (point estimates 0%–100%; I 2 = 97%), while estimates from studies that adjusted for background illnesses were more consistent with point estimates in the range 65%–85% and moderate heterogeneity (I2 = 58%). Variation in estimates could be partially explained by differences in study design and analysis, and inclusion of mild symptomatic illnesses as asymptomatic in some studies. Conclusions: Estimates of the asymptomatic fraction are affected by the study design, and the definitions of infection and symptomatic illness. Considerable differences between the asymptomatic fraction of infections confirmed by virologic versus serologic testing may indicate fundamental differences in the interpretation of these two indicators.

Geographic Divisions and Modeling of Virological Data on Seasonal Influenza in the Chinese Mainland during the 2006–2009 Monitoring Years

Background Seasonal influenza epidemics occur annually with bimodality in southern China and unimodality in northern China. Regional differences exist in surveillance data collected by the National Influenza Surveillance Network of the Chinese mainland. Qualitative and quantitative analyses on the spatiotemporal rules of the influenza viruss activities are needed to lay the foundation for the surveillance, prevention and control of seasonal influenza. Methods The peak performance analysis and Fourier harmonic extraction methods were used to explore the spatiotemporal characteristics of the seasonal influenza virus activity and to obtain geographic divisions. In the first method, the concept of quality control was introduced and robust estimators were chosen to make the results more convincing. The dominant Fourier harmonics of the provincial time series were extracted in the second method, and the VARiable CLUSter (VARCLUS) procedure was used to variably cluster the extracted results. On the basis of the above geographic division results, three typical districts were selected and corresponding sinusoidal models were applied to fit the time series of the virological data. Results The predominant virus during every peak is visible from the bar charts of the virological data. The results of the two methods that were used to obtain the geographic divisions have some consistencies with each other and with the virus activity mechanism. Quantitative models were established for three typical districts: the south1 district, including Guangdong, Guangxi, Jiangxi and Fujian; the south2 district, including Hunan, Hubei, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang; and the north district, including the 14 northern provinces except Qinghai. The sinusoidal fitting models showed that the south1 district had strong annual periodicity with strong winter peaks and weak summer peaks. The south2 district had strong semi-annual periodicity with similarly strong summer and winter peaks, and the north district had strong annual periodicity with only winter peaks.