Daniel M. Mitchell

The Influence of Stratospheric Vortex Displacements and Splits on Surface Climate

AbstractA strong link exists between stratospheric variability and anomalous weather patterns at the earth’s surface. Specifically, during extreme variability of the Arctic polar vortex termed a “weak vortex event,” anomalies can descend from the upper stratosphere to the surface on time scales of weeks. Subsequently the outbreak of cold-air events have been noted in high northern latitudes, as well as a quadrupole pattern in surface temperature over the Atlantic and western European sectors, but it is currently not understood why certain events descend to the surface while others do not. This study compares a new classification technique of weak vortex events, based on the distribution of potential vorticity, with that of an existing technique and demonstrates that the subdivision of such events into vortex displacements and vortex splits has important implications for tropospheric weather patterns on weekly to monthly time scales. Using reanalysis data it is found that vortex splitting events are correl...

Characterizing the Variability and Extremes of the Stratospheric Polar Vortices Using 2D Moment Analysis

AbstractThe mean state, variability, and extreme variability of the stratospheric polar vortices, with an emphasis on the Northern Hemisphere (NH) vortex, are examined using two-dimensional moment analysis and extreme value theory (EVT). The use of moments as an analysis tool gives rise to information about the vortex area, centroid latitude, aspect ratio, and kurtosis. The application of EVT to these moment-derived quantities allows the extreme variability of the vortex to be assessed. The data used for this study are 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) potential vorticity fields on interpolated isentropic surfaces that range from 450 to 1450 K.Analyses show that the most extreme vortex variability occurs most commonly in late January and early February, consistent with when most planetary wave driving from the troposphere is observed. Composites around sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events reveal that the moment diagnostics evolve in statistically different ways between vortex splitting events and vort...

The Effect of Climate Change on the Variability of the Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric Polar Vortex

AbstractWith extreme variability of the Arctic polar vortex being a key link for stratosphere–troposphere influences, its evolution into the twenty-first century is important for projections of changing surface climate in response to greenhouse gases. Variability of the stratospheric vortex is examined using a state-of-the-art climate model and a suite of specifically developed vortex diagnostics. The model has a fully coupled ocean and a fully resolved stratosphere. Analysis of the standard stratospheric zonal mean wind diagnostic shows no significant increase over the twenty-first century in the number of major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) from its historical value of 0.7 events per decade, although the monthly distribution of SSWs does vary, with events becoming more evenly dispersed throughout the winter. However, further analyses using geometric-based vortex diagnostics show that the vortex mean state becomes weaker, and the vortex centroid is climatologically more equatorward by up to 2.5°, ...

Emergence of heat extremes attributable to anthropogenic influences

Climate scientists have demonstrated that a substantial fraction of the probability of numerous recent extreme events may be attributed to human-induced climate change. However, it is likely that for temperature extremes occurring over previous decades a fraction of their probability was attributable to anthropogenic influences. We identify the first record-breaking warm summers and years for which a discernible contribution can be attributed to human influence. We find a significant human contribution to the probability of record-breaking global temperature events as early as the 1930s. Since then, all the last 16 record-breaking hot years globally had an anthropogenic contribution to their probability of occurrence. Aerosol-induced cooling delays the timing of a significant human contribution to record-breaking events in some regions. Without human-induced climate change recent hot summers and years would be very unlikely to have occurred.

On the Linearity of Local and Regional Temperature Changes from 1.5 degrees C to 2 degrees C of Global Warming

AbstractGiven the Paris Agreement it is imperative there is greater understanding of the consequences of limiting global warming to the target 1.5° and 2°C levels above preindustrial conditions. It...

The stratopause evolution during different types of sudden stratospheric warming event

Recent work has shown that the vertical structure of the Arctic polar vortex during different types of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events can be very distinctive. Specifically, SSWs can be classified into polar vortex displacement events or polar vortex splitting events. This paper aims to study the Arctic stratosphere during such events, with a focus on the stratopause using the Modern Era-Restrospective analysis for Research and Applications reanalysis data set. The reanalysis dataset is compared against two independent satellite reconstructions for validation purposes. During vortex displacement events, the stratopause temperature and pressure exhibit a wave-1 structure and are in quadrature whereas during vortex splitting events they exhibit a wave-2 structure. For both types of SSW the temperature anomalies at the stratopause are shown to be generated by ageostrophic vertical motions. Transformed Eulerian mean diagnostics are used to show differences in the planetary wave activity between displacement and splitting events. The convergence of Eliassen-Palm flux, which leads to SSWs is longer for displacement events and a persistent mesospheric Eliassen-Palm flux divergence can be observed about 20 days after displacement events. Finally, although this work focuses on the stratopause at high latitudes, associated observations of the equatorial middle atmosphere are also examined to explore links between the equator and polar evolution during SSWs.