David Blair

Interacting Factors Driving a Major Loss of Large Trees with Cavities in a Forest Ecosystem

Large trees with cavities provide critical ecological functions in forests worldwide, including vital nesting and denning resources for many species. However, many ecosystems are experiencing increasingly rapid loss of large trees or a failure to recruit new large trees or both. We quantify this problem in a globally iconic ecosystem in southeastern Australia – forests dominated by the worlds tallest angiosperms, Mountain Ash (Eucalyptus regnans). Tree, stand and landscape-level factors influencing the death and collapse of large living cavity trees and the decay and collapse of dead trees with cavities are documented using a suite of long-term datasets gathered between 1983 and 2011. The historical rate of tree mortality on unburned sites between 1997 and 2011 was >14% with a mortality spike in the driest period (2006–2009). Following a major wildfire in 2009, 79% of large living trees with cavities died and 57–100% of large dead trees were destroyed on burned sites. Repeated measurements between 1997 and 2011 revealed no recruitment of any new large trees with cavities on any of our unburned or burned sites. Transition probability matrices of large trees with cavities through increasingly decayed condition states projects a severe shortage of large trees with cavities by 2039 that will continue until at least 2067. This large cavity tree crisis in Mountain Ash forests is a product of: (1) the prolonged time required (>120 years) for initiation of cavities; and (2) repeated past wildfires and widespread logging operations. These latter factors have resulted in all landscapes being dominated by stands ≤72 years and just 1.16% of forest being unburned and unlogged. We discuss how the features that make Mountain Ash forests vulnerable to a decline in large tree abundance are shared with many forest types worldwide.

An Empirical Assessment and Comparison of Species-Based and Habitat-Based Surrogates: A Case Study of Forest Vertebrates and Large Old Trees

A holy grail of conservation is to find simple but reliable measures of environmental change to guide management. For example, particular species or particular habitat attributes are often used as proxies for the abundance or diversity of a subset of other taxa. However, the efficacy of such kinds of species-based surrogates and habitat-based surrogates is rarely assessed, nor are different kinds of surrogates compared in terms of their relative effectiveness. We use 30-year datasets on arboreal marsupials and vegetation structure to quantify the effectiveness of: (1) the abundance of a particular species of arboreal marsupial as a species-based surrogate for other arboreal marsupial taxa, (2) hollow-bearing tree abundance as a habitat-based surrogate for arboreal marsupial abundance, and (3) a combination of species- and habitat-based surrogates. We also quantify the robustness of species-based and habitat-based surrogates over time. We then use the same approach to model overall species richness of arboreal marsupials. We show that a species-based surrogate can appear to be a valid surrogate until a habitat-based surrogate is co-examined, after which the effectiveness of the former is lost. The addition of a species-based surrogate to a habitat-based surrogate made little difference in explaining arboreal marsupial abundance, but altered the co-occurrence relationship between species. Hence, there was limited value in simultaneously using a combination of kinds of surrogates. The habitat-based surrogate also generally performed significantly better and was easier and less costly to gather than the species-based surrogate. We found that over 30 years of study, the relationships which underpinned the habitat-based surrogate generally remained positive but variable over time. Our work highlights why it is important to compare the effectiveness of different broad classes of surrogates and identify situations when either species- or habitat-based surrogates are likely to be superior.

The Effects of Wildfire on Mortality and Resources for an Arboreal Marsupial: Resilience to Fire Events but Susceptibility to Fire Regime Change

Background Big environmental disturbances have big ecological effects, yet these are not always what we might expect. Understanding the proximate effects of major disturbances, such as severe wildfires, on individuals, populations and habitats will be essential for understanding how predicted future increases in the frequency of such disturbances will affect ecosystems. However, researchers rarely have access to data from immediately before and after such events. Here we report on the effects of a severe and extensive forest wildfire on mortality, reproductive output and availability of key shelter resources for an arboreal marsupial. We also investigated the behavioural response of individuals to changed shelter resource availability in the post-fire environment. Methodology/Principal Findings We fitted proximity-logging radiotransmitters to mountain brushtail possums (Trichosurus cunninghami) before, during and after the 2009 wildfires in Victoria, Australia. Surprisingly, we detected no mortality associated with the fire, and despite a significant post-fire decrease in the proportion of females carrying pouch young in the burnt area, there was no short-term post-fire population decline. The major consequence of this fire for mountain brushtail possums was the loss of over 80% of hollow-bearing trees. The types of trees preferred as shelter sites (highly decayed dead standing trees) were those most likely to collapse after fire. Individuals adapted to resource decline by being more flexible in resource selection after the fire, but not by increased resource sharing. Conclusions/Significance Despite short-term demographic resilience and behavioural adaptation following this fire, the major loss of decayed hollow trees suggests the increased frequency of stand-replacing wildfires predicted under climate change will pose major challenges for shelter resource availability for hollow-dependent fauna. Hollow-bearing trees are typically biological legacies of previous forest generations in post-fire regrowth forests but will cease to be recruited to future regrowth forests if the interval between severe fires becomes too rapid for hollow formation.

Managing temperate forests for carbon storage: impacts of logging versus forest protection on carbon stocks

Management of native forests offers opportunities to store more carbon in the land sector through two main activities. Emissions to the atmosphere can be avoided by ceasing logging. Removals of arbon dioxide from the atmosphere can be increased by allowing forests to continue growing. However, the relative benefits for carbon storage of managing native forests for wood production versus protection are contested. Additionally, the potential for carbon storage is impacted upon by disturbance events, such as wildfire, that alter the amount and longevity of carbon stocks. Using a case study of montane ash forests in southeastern Australia, we demonstrated that the total biomass carbon stock in logged forest was 55% of the stock in old growth forest. Total biomass included above- and belowground, living and dead. Biomass carbon stock was calculated spatially as an average across the landscape, accounting for variation in environmental conditions and forest age distribution. Reduction in carbon stock in logged forest was due to 66% of the initial biomass being made into products with short lifetimes (,3 years), and to the lower average age of logged forest (,50 years compared with 100 years in old growth forest). Only 4% of the initial carbon stock in the native forest was converted to sawn timber products with lifetimes of 30-90 years. Carbon stocks are depleted in a harvested forest system compared with an old growth forest, even when storage in wood products and landfill are included. We estimated that continued logging under current plans represented a loss of 5.56 Tg C over 5 years in the area logged (824 km2), compared with a potential gain of 5.18-6.05 TgC over 5 years by allowing continued growth across the montane ash forest region (2326 km2). Avoiding emissions by not logging native forests and allowing them to continue growing is therefore an important form of carbon sequestration. The mitigation value of forest management options of protection versus logging should be assessed in terms of the amount, longevity and resilience of the carbon stored in the forest, rather than the annual rate of carbon uptake.

Principles and practices for biodiversity conservation and restoration forestry: a 30 year case study on the Victorian montane ash forests and the critically endangered Leadbeater's Possum

We present a detailed case study of conservation and restoration of the Australian arboreal marsupial Leadbeaters Possum (Gymnobelideus leadbeateri) and its Mountain Ash forest habitat to illustrate the important intersection between forest restoration principles and the general principles for forest biodiversity conservation. Mountain Ash forests have been extensively modified through a century of intensive logging, recurrent wildfires and post-fire salvage logging. These disturbances have led to a reduction in old growth forest to 1/30th-1/60th of the extent of historical levels, a rapid collapse followed by a prolonged (≯30-year) shortage of populations of hollow-bearing trees throughout the Mountain Ash forests (which are critical habitat elements for many species of cavity-dependent vertebrates), and an increased risk of re-burning of landscapes dominated by young, regrowth forest. The consequences of the severe decline and consequent ‘temporary extinction’ of large old trees will be the potential g...

Adaptive responses and disruptive effects: how major wildfire influences kinship-based social interactions in a forest marsupial

Environmental disturbance is predicted to play a key role in the evolution of animal social behaviour. This is because disturbance affects key factors underlying social systems, such as demography, resource availability and genetic structure. However, because natural disturbances are unpredictable there is little information on their effects on social behaviour in wild populations. Here, we investigated how a major wildfire affected cooperation (sharing of hollow trees) by a hollow‐dependent marsupial. We based two alternative social predictions on the impacts of fire on population density, genetic structure and resources. We predicted an adaptive social response from previous work showing that kin selection in den‐sharing develops as competition for den resources increases. Thus, kin selection should occur in burnt areas because the fire caused loss of the majority of hollow‐bearing trees, but no detectable mortality. Alternatively, fire may have a disruptive social effect, whereby postfire home range‐shifts ‘neutralize’ fine‐scale genetic structure, thereby removing opportunities for kin selection between neighbours. Both predictions occurred: the disruptive social effect in burnt habitat and the adaptive social response in adjacent unburnt habitat. The latter followed a massive demographic influx to unburnt ‘refuge’ habitat that increased competition for dens, leading to a density‐related kin selection response. Our results show remarkable short‐term plasticity of animal social behaviour and demonstrate how the social effects of disturbance extend into undisturbed habitat owing to landscape‐scale demographic shifts. We predicted long‐term changes in kinship‐based cooperative behaviour resulting from the genetic and resource impacts of forecast changes to fire regimes in these forests.

Accounting for Biomass Carbon Stock Change Due to Wildfire in Temperate Forest Landscapes in Australia

Carbon stock change due to forest management and disturbance must be accounted for in UNFCCC national inventory reports and for signatories to the Kyoto Protocol. Impacts of disturbance on greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories are important for many countries with large forest estates prone to wildfires. Our objective was to measure changes in carbon stocks due to short-term combustion and to simulate longer-term carbon stock dynamics resulting from redistribution among biomass components following wildfire. We studied the impacts of a wildfire in 2009 that burnt temperate forest of tall, wet eucalypts in south-eastern Australia. Biomass combusted ranged from 40 to 58 tC ha−1, which represented 6–7% and 9–14% in low- and high-severity fire, respectively, of the pre-fire total biomass carbon stock. Pre-fire total stock ranged from 400 to 1040 tC ha−1 depending on forest age and disturbance history. An estimated 3.9 TgC was emitted from the 2009 fire within the forest region, representing 8.5% of total biomass carbon stock across the landscape. Carbon losses from combustion were large over hours to days during the wildfire, but from an ecosystem dynamics perspective, the proportion of total carbon stock combusted was relatively small. Furthermore, more than half the stock losses from combustion were derived from biomass components with short lifetimes. Most biomass remained on-site, although redistributed from living to dead components. Decomposition of these components and new regeneration constituted the greatest changes in carbon stocks over ensuing decades. A critical issue for carbon accounting policy arises because the timeframes of ecological processes of carbon stock change are longer than the periods for reporting GHG inventories for national emissions reductions targets. Carbon accounts should be comprehensive of all stock changes, but reporting against targets should be based on human-induced changes in carbon stocks to incentivise mitigation activities.

Fine-scale refuges can buffer demographic and genetic processes against short-term climatic variation and disturbance: a 22-year case study of an arboreal marsupial

Ecological disturbance and climate are key drivers of temporal dynamics in the demography and genetic diversity of natural populations. Microscale refuges are known to buffer species’ persistence against environmental change, but the effects of such refuges on demographic and genetic patterns in response to short‐term environmental variation are poorly understood. We quantified demographic and genetic responses of mountain brushtail possums (Trichosurus cunninghami) to rainfall variability (1992–2013) and to a major wildfire. We hypothesized that there would be underlying differences in demographic and genetic processes between an unburnt mesic refuge and a topographically exposed zone that was burnt in 2009. Fire caused a 2‐year decrease in survival in the burnt zone, but the population grew after the fire due to immigration, leading to increased expected heterozygosity. We documented a fire‐related behavioural shift, where the rate of movement by individuals in the unburnt refuge to the burnt zone decreased after fire. Irrespective of the fire, there were long‐term differences in demographic and genetic parameters between the mesic/unburnt refuge and the nonmesic/burnt zone. Survival was high and unaffected by rainfall in the refuge, but lower and rainfall‐dependent in the nonmesic zone. Net movement of individuals was directional, from the mesic refuge to the nonmesic zone, suggesting fine‐scale source–sink dynamics. There were higher expected heterozygosity (HE) and temporal genetic stability in the refuge, but lower HE and marked temporal genetic structure in the exposed habitat, consistent with reduced generational overlap caused by elevated mortality and immigration. Thus, fine‐scale refuges can mediate the short‐term demographic and genetic effects of climate and ecological disturbance.

The need for a comprehensive reassessment of the Regional Forest Agreements in Australia

Regional Forest Agreements (RFAs) are State–Federal agreements underpinning the management of the majority of Australia’s commercially productive native forests. Introduced between 1997 and 2001, they were designed to deliver certainty to forest industries while, simultaneously, guaranteeing environmental protection, including the conservation of biodiversity. Using examples, we argue that RFAs in some jurisdictions have failed to do either. We strongly recommend a comprehensive reassessment of RFAs. This is needed to: (1) take into account significant new knowledge on forest ecology and management that has been gathered in the past 20 years, including updated prognoses for some critically endangered species; (2) better evaluate the full range of wood and non-wood products and services provided by forests; (3) accommodate new methods of forest inventory and more environmentally sensitive silvicultural systems; and (4) better account for the impacts of natural disturbances, such as fires, on the area available for logging, sustained yield, and forest ecosystem integrity per se. Without a substantial overhaul of the RFAs, there is a significant risk of undervaluing the full range of native forest values, exacerbating species declines, and permanently damaging forest ecosystems.

Can Individual and Social Patterns of Resource Use Buffer Animal Populations against Resource Decline

Species in many ecosystems are facing declines of key resources. If we are to understand and predict the effects of resource loss on natural populations, we need to understand whether and how the way animals use resources changes under resource decline. We investigated how the abundance of arboreal marsupials varies in response to a critical resource, hollow-bearing trees. Principally, we asked what mechanisms mediate the relationship between resources and abundance? Do animals use a greater or smaller proportion of the remaining resource, and is there a change in cooperative resource use (den sharing), as the availability of hollow trees declines? Analyses of data from 160 sites surveyed from 1997 to 2007 showed that hollow tree availability was positively associated with abundance of the mountain brushtail possum, the agile antechinus and the greater glider. The abundance of Leadbeater’s possum was primarily influenced by forest age. Notably, the relationship between abundance and hollow tree availability was significantly less than 1∶1 for all species. This was due primarily to a significant increase by all species in the proportional use of hollow-bearing trees where the abundance of this resource was low. The resource-sharing response was weaker and inconsistent among species. Two species, the mountain brushtail possum and the agile antechinus, showed significant but contrasting relationships between the number of animals per occupied tree and hollow tree abundance. The discrepancies between the species can be explained partly by differences in several aspects of the species’ biology, including body size, types of hollows used and social behaviour as it relates to hollow use. Our results show that individual and social aspects of resource use are not always static in response to resource availability and support the need to account for dynamic resource use patterns in predictive models of animal distribution and abundance.