Dedi Budiman Hakim

Impact of a Lower Oil Subsidy on Indonesian Macroeconomic Performance, Agricultural Sector and Poverty Incidences: A Recursive Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

Budget deficit, exchange rate fluctuation and high fuel world price provides a pressure on budget capacity to stimulate the Indonesian economy. The government has designed several fiscal policies, including reducing the fuel subsidy. The study objective is to analyse the impact of reducing fuel subsidy on macroeconomic variables, agricultural sector, and income distribution. The modification on the basic model, which is a recursive-dynamic CGE model, is made in this study. The data used in the model is of the Indonesian I-O Table 2000, The Indonesian Social Accounting Matrix 2000, National Household Survey data and parameter from some other sources. The results show that the reduction in fuel price subsidy tends to increase prices of industrial outputs that highly depend on fuel, such as transportation and fishery sectors. In contrast, the change in fuel price does not influence the price of paddy. Wage of skilled labor, land rent, and capital rent decline steadily in response to the change in fuel price. Households will lose their income following the reduction in fuel subsidy, which then decreases the welfare of households. Incomes are not evenly distributed within the society (household groups). An increased fuel price at consumer level declines the Indonesian real GDP. The government should give the compensation of reducing the fuel subsidy directly to the poor people. The compensation can also be given directly to the poor people through the development of infrastructure, which may solve some supply side bottlenecks in the economy.

The Impacts of ALMA Primary Variables on Profitability: An Empirical Study of Indonesian Banking

INTRODUCTION Indonesian Statistic Banking reported that during the period of 2001-2014 the ALMA indicators of Indonesian banking is in the proper conditions. This can be seen from the dynamic development of asset-liability structure and the integrated banking earnings structure in the behavior and performance of the banking management of which is growing rapidly. The national banking assets showed the total assets increased significantly over the period of 2001-2014. In 2001, the amount of total assets reached 1,099,699 billion, then it rose to 1,469,827 billion (2005). In 2010, the amount of total assets increased to 3,008,853 billion and by the end of 2014 it finally reached 5,615,149 billion. Furthermore, in terms of its asset structure, LAR ratio (loan to asset ratio) that describes the proportion of the volume of bank credit in the assets, which only reached 28.7% (2001), then it Vol. 8 | No. 1 ISSN: 2089-6271 8-1.indd 13 5/26/16 10:12 AM 14 International Research Journal of Business Studies vol. VIII no. 01 (2015) increased to 47.3% in 2005. In 2010, LAR ratio is at 56.9%, and at the end of 2014 it rose again to 62.8%. This indicates that the performance of banks is in the form of lending increased both in nominal and proportional, although it still needs to be improved. The non-credit productive assets proportion has a decline. In 2001, the value of non-credit productive assets reached 66.57% (from the value of total assets in current year). In 2005, it fell to 43.82%, then in 2010 it dropped again to 34.96% until at the end of 2014 it fell further to 26.32%. This indicator gives information of the allocation of financial resources from non-credits productive assets to loan. Unexpectedly, the growth of non-productive assets had an increment. The proportion of nonproductive assets in 2001 was only 4.69%, and it became 8.85% in 2005, while in 2010 declined again to 8.18%. Finally, in the end of 2014, in increased to 10.88%. This indicates in the assets growth, the national banking still needs the portfolio assets to be optimized. From the financial structure, it can be seen the TETA (the proportion of total equity in bank assets) ratio had an increment. In 2001, TETA reached 5.06% while in 2005 it increased again to 6.79%. In 2010, TETA reached 10.91%. In the end of 2014, it finally increased again to 12.86%. Then, from the point of view of funding activity, there is an increment in nominal. However, from the DTA (deposit proportion in assets) point of view, there is a decline. In 2001, DTA was at 87.06 %. In 2005, it dropped to 79.33%. In 2010, DTA reached 75.59%. Finally, in the end of 2014, TA increased to 70.23%. Meanwhile, DP2TA (proportion of second party fund of assets) had an increment. In 2001, DP2TA was at 7.87%. In 2005, it reached 13.87%. However, in 2010 it declined slightly to 13.49%. Finally, in the end of 2014, it increased again to 16.91%. This financial structure of bank condition gives the information that Indonesian banking has a good achievement of its performance in distributing the fund from surplus unit. The management of Indonesian banking also has a good achievement of its solvability. Based on the profit and loss of national banking, the total revenue (operational income) has an increment. In 2001, the total revenue was only at 152.435 billion, then in 2005 it increased to 177.377 billion. In 2010, it reached 350.873 billion and in the end of 2014 it increased to 716.452 billion. Based on the structure, the interest income still dominated the total revenue. In 2001, the II/ REV ratio (proportion of interest income of total revenue) reached 84.2%. In 2005, it dropped to 75.27%. In 2010, it decreased again to 71.69%. The other proportion of total revenue is fee based income. This indicates that Indonesian banking still depends on the primary income, which is operating income. Meanwhile fee based income still has the small role in Indonesian banking. The structure of profit shows the proportion of interest expense, overhead cost, and operating profit which are calculated by the total revenue. In 2001, IE/Rev (proportion of interest expense of total revenue) is at 59.36%, while the NIE/ Rev (proportion of non-interest expense of total revenue) is at 39.11%. The other is operating profit which was at 1.49%. In 2005 the IE/Rev dropped to 35.27% while NIE/Rev also increased to 53.04%, then the operating profit increased to 11.68%. In 2010, the IE/Rev dropped again to 29%, while NIE/ Rev increased again to 57.22%, then operating profit increased to 13.77%. In the end of 2014, IE/Rev increased to 41.01%, NIE/Rev dropped to 38.92%, operating profit increased to 20.05%. This indicates that management of banking industry can increase profit margin by utilizing the efficiency of operational expense. To maintain and protect Indonesian banking industry, Bank Indonesia as the central bank and the supervisor has the policy of banking industry future development which is stated in API (Indonesian Banking Architecture). The API programes is based on the vision to reach a healthy banking system, powerful, and efficient in order to 8-1.indd 14 5/26/16 10:12 AM 15 Sapto Jumono, Noer Azam Achsani, Dedi Budiman Hakim, Muhamad Firdaus / The Impacts of ALMA Primary Variables on Profitability / 13 32 An Empirical Study of Indonesian Banking create the financial system stability and to help the national economic growth. Nowadays, Bank Indonesia use two approaches of supervision, which are compliance based supervision and risk based supervision (RBS). The existence of the RBS approach does not mean ruling out based compliance approach, it tends to focus on enhancing surveillance systems therefore it can improve the efficiency and effectiveness of banking supervision. The management of assets and liability (ALMA) is the banking control system which aims to reach one of banking objectives which is creating stability of financial system. ALMA also becomes the main focus in every banking management. Even Bank for International Settlement (BISC) has adopted ALMA principles into CAMELS (Capital Adequacy, Assets Quality, Management Quality, Earnings, Liquidity, Sensitivity to Market Risks). CAMELS is already used on international banking industry in controlling banking system. It focuses on management control of capital, assets, profitability, liquidity, and sensitivity in facing the market volatility. If a bank does not concern about ALMA principles in its operational activity, then it is expected to have a bad performance. Applying ALMA principles in operational banking makes management can anticipate the volatility changes of level of market interest, structure of funding sources, increment of capital requirements, tighter competition, the development of information systems, the increasing role of banks, the availability of funds in the money market, changes in the composition of bank assets, the increment of performance, and increment of overhead costs. The objective of ALMA is to make the portfolio consistent, coordinated, and integrated from the side of assets and liability in order to maximize profit so the management decisions of assets and liabilities can be integrated. The ALMA dilemma or the main problem of banking management in ALMA implementation is how to solve the dilemma between liquidity and safety along with the ability of bank to increase profit. It is called liquidity safety versus earnings which is related to trust. A bank can be operated from the trust of citizen, the bigger the trust the bigger the existence of bank in the industry. The trade-off between liquidity with profitability is based on the argument than investment in shortterm funding gives the opposite effect to liquidity and profitability. Even though the investment in liquid assets can increase the liquidity, but it can not generate the profit as much as the investment in fixed assets. Then, even though the funding which comes from the liquid liabilities is cheap and more promising from the profit, but it has a higher risk. Based on this condition, the implementation of ALMA becomes a significant thing in banking operational management. If a bank does not concern on the trust development and always tends to reach higher profit, then the bank is in the state of wrong governance. The wrong banking liquidity management will make a liquidity crisis. The signs of that condition is the percentage of LDR reach 100%, becomes a money centre bank, compliance to reserve provision (should be greater), excessive credit expansion, the weakening of the management of secondary reserve, and evergreen loan. The liquidity risk is not only impacting the performance, but also affects the reputation (Jenkinson, 2008). A bank can lost the trust from depositors of the fund is not distributed on time. The bad liquidity position can make the regulators have sanctions. Therefore, the management should maintain the liquidity position to be in the right track. Akhtar (2007) stated that the liquidity risk has became the main focus and challenge for the modern bank. The tight competitiveness in attracting depositors, the product variances using technologies, those thing change the structure of 8-1.indd 15 5/26/16 10:12 AM 16 International Research Journal of Business Studies vol. VIII no. 01 (2015) funding management based on the risk. Crowe (2009) stated the bank which has the good assets quality, strong income and adequate capital, may fails if it can not maintain the liquidity. The danger of this mismanagement is the liquidity crisis. It a reputation that was built since many years prior can suddenly crumble only in a day simply because the bank is unable to meet the obligations in the maturity day. Why does this happen? Because liquidity is the trust. Liquidity management is the most fundamental thing for the banks, but top management often forgets about it because the always tends to make a large profit for the short term. From the empirical data and obs

LAJU KONVERSI LAHAN SAWAH MENJADI PERKEBUNAN SAWIT DAN FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHINYA SERTA DAMPAKNYA TERHADAP PRODUKSI PADI DI KABUPATEN KAMPAR, RIAU

The Influence of Cropping Systems and Plant Trimming on Growth and Yield of Maize and Soybean. This study aimed to determine the effect of monoculture and intercropping systems and plant trimming on growth and yield of maize and soybean as well as farm income. The experiment was conducted in rainfed lowland at Mojosari Experimental Farm, Mojokerto Regency, East Java during the late dry season in 2012. Randomized block design with nine treatments of planting systems and three replications was used in this experiment. The planting system tested were: (1) Monoculture of soybean with planting space of 40 cm x 15 cm, (2) Monoculture of maize with planting space of 75 cm x 20 cm, without trim, (3) Monoculture of maize with planting space of 75 cm x 20 cm, and trimming the leaves and stems above the cob, (4) Intercropping of soybean-maize (90/60 cm x 20 cm, without trimming), (5) Intercropping of soybean-maize (90/60 cm x 20 cm, trimming the leaves and stems above the cob), (6) Intercropping of soybean-maize (150 cm x 20 cm, without trimming), (7) Intercropping of soybean-maize (150 cm x 20 cm, trimming the leaves and stems above the cob), (8) Intercropping of soybean-maize (180/120 cm x 20 cm, without trimming), (9) intercropping of soybeans-maize (180/120 cm x 20 cm, trimming the leaves and stems above the cob). The results showed that the intercropping system affected the growth and yield of soybean and maize compared to monoculture system. The intercropping system increased the plant height, but reduced the number of pod, seed, node, branch and seed yield of soybean compared the monoculture. Plant height, cob length, cob diameter, 100 seed weight, and yield of maize in intercropping decreased compared to those of monoculture system. Based on land equivalent ratio, total yield and net income, the intercropping soybean-maize with plating space of 150 cm x 20 cm with trimming the leaves and stems above the cob would be suggested and prospective to be developed in the farmer’s fields. Key words: Soybean, maize, intercropping Penelitian bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh sistem tanam monokultur dan tumpangsari kedelai-jagung dan pemangkasan tanaman jagung terhadap pertumbuhan dan hasil tanaman serta pendapatan usahatani. Penelitian dilaksanakan di lahan sawah tadah hujan, KP. Mojosari, Kabupaten Mojokerto, Jawa Timur pada MK I 2012. Rancangan percobaan yang digunakan adalah acak kelompok dengan tiga ulangan dan sembilan perlakuan. Perlakuannya adalah sistem tanam, yaitu: (1) monokultur kedelai dengan jarak tanam 40 cm x 15 cm, (2) monokultur jagung dengan jarak tanam 75 cm x 20 cm, tanpa pangkas, (3) monokultur jagung dengan pangkas daun bawah dan batang diatas tongkol, (4) tumpangsari kedelai-jagung dengan jarak tanam 90/60 cm x 20 cm, tanpa pangkas daun, (5) tumpangsari kedelai-jagung dengan jarak tanam 90/60 cm x 20 cm dengan pangkas daun bawah dan batang diatas tongkol, (6) tumpangsari kedelai-jagung dengan jarak tanam 150 cm x 20 cm, tanpa pangkas daun, (7) tumpangsari kedelai-jagung dengan jarak tanam 150 cm x 20 cm, pangkas daun bawah dan batang diatas tongkol, (8) tumpangsari kedelai-jagung dengan jarak tanam 180/120 cm x 20 cm, tanpa pangkas daun, (9) tumpangsari kedelai-jagung dengan jarak tanam 180/120 cm x 20 cm, pangkas daun bawah dan batang diatas tongkol. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa sistem tumpangsari kedelai-jagung menyebabkan tanaman kedelai bertambah tinggi, tetapi terjadi penurunan dalam jumlah polong, jumlah biji, jumlah buku, jumlah cabang, dan hasil biji. Sistem tumpangsari juga menyebabkan terjadinya penurunan tinggi tanaman jagung, panjang tongkol, diameter tongkol, bobot 100 biji, dan hasil biji. Berdasarkan nilai LER ( Land Equivalent Ratio ), total hasil setara kedelai, dan pendapatan (keuntungan) usahatani, maka sistem tanam tumpangsari kedelai-jagung pada jarak tanam 150 cm x 20 cm dengan pemangkasan daun bawah dan batang di atas tongkol pada umur 80 hari prospektif untuk dikembangkan di lahan petani. Kata kunci: Kedelai, jagung, tumpangsariProduction and Economic Analysis of Bali Cattle Using Feed of Palm Frond During Dry Season, West Sumatera. Problems of cattle feed during dry season could be solved by additional of palm frond without adversely affected the cattle production. The aim of this research was to determine body weight gain and to conduct the economic analysis of Bali cattle which was fed palm frond during dry season. The design of the experiment was Completely Randomized Design (CRD) with four treatments and three replications in each treatment. The total of 12 Bali cattle on the age of 1,5-2 year old and the average body weight 170kg were used in this study. The treatments were R0 (grass + concentrate), R1 (grass + 3kg palm frond + concentrate), R2 (grass + 4 kg palm frond + concentrate) and R3 (grass + 5 palm frond + concentrate). Grass was given ad-libitum , while concentrate was given 1,5kg/day consisting of 40% rice brand, 14% corn, 30% palm oil meal, 7% soybean meal, 5% fish meal, 3% mineral dan 1% salt. The parameters observed were average daily gain (ADG), return over cost ratio (R/C) and net income value. The results showed that the performance of Bali cattle had significantly different (P<0,05) on average daily gain compared to other Bali cattle that was not fed palm frond. Bali cattle by R2 had average daily gain of 0.54 kg/day higher than others by R0, which had average daily gain of 0.42 kg/day. The economic analysis showed that Bali cattle by R2 had R/C of 1.39 and net income value of 3.6 times higher than those by R0 which had R/C of 1.11. Thus, it can be concluded that palm frond for Bali cattle feed could substitute grass up to 30 percent, increase farmer income and also solve the problems to find grass during dry season. Key words : Bali cattle, dry season , p alm oil frond, growth, economic analysis Masalah pakan sapi di musim kemarau yang sulit diperoleh diharapkan dapat diatasi dengan pemberian pelepah sawit tanpa menyebabkan dampak buruk terhadap produktivitas ternak. Penelitian bertujuan untuk mengetahui pertambahan bobot badan dan analisa ekonomi sapi Bali yang diberi pakan pelepah sawit pada musim kemarau. Penelitian menggunakan Rancangan Acak Lengkap (RAL) terdiri dari empat perlakuan dan tiga kali ulangan. Sebanyak 12 ekor sapi Bali jantan umur 1,5-2 tahun dengan bobot badan rata-rata 170 kg digunakan dalam penelitian ini. Sapi tersebut dibagi menjadi empat kelompok dan diberikan perlakuan pakan R0 (rumput+konsentrat), R1 (rumput+3kg pelepah sawit+konsentrat), R2 (rumput+4kg pelepah sawit+konsentrat) dan R3 (rumput+5kg pelepah sawit+konsentrat). Rumput diberikan secara ad-libitum, sedangkan konsentrat sebanyak 1,5kg/hari yang merupakan campuran dari 40% dedak halus, 14% jagung halus, 30% bungkil sawit, 7% bungkil kedelai, 5% tepung ikan, 3% ultra mineral dan 1% garam. Parameter yang diukur meliputi pertambahan bobot badan harian (PBBH), return over cost ratio (R/C) dan nilai keuntungan bersih (NKB). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan pemberian pakan pelepah sawit memberikan pengaruh yang nyata (P<0,05) terhadap pertambahan bobot badan sapi Bali. Pemberian pakan pelepah sawit R2 pada sapi Bali menghasilkan PBBH 0,54 kg/hari lebih tinggi dibanding sapi Bali yang diberikan pakan R0 tanpa pelepah sawit dengan PBBH 0,42 kg/hari. Analisis ekonomi sapi Bali yang diberi pakan pelepah sawit R2 memperlihatkan nilai R/C 1,39 dan nilai keuntungan bersih 3,6 kali lebih tinggi dibandingkan pakan tanpa pelepah sawit R0 dengan nilai R/C 1,11. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian disimpulkan bahwa pemberian pelepah sawit terhadap sapi Bali mampu menggantikan rumput hingga 30% kebutuhan konsumsi bahan kering dan bisa mengatasi masalah kesulitan memperoleh rumput di musim kemarau. Kata kunci : Sapi Bali, musim kemarau, pelepah sawit, berat badan , analisis ekonomi