E. P. L. Elias

Numerical modeling of the impact of sea-level rise on fringing coral reef hydrodynamics and sediment transport

Most climate projections suggest that sea level may rise on the order of 0.5–1.0xa0m by 2100; it is not clear, however, how fluid flow and sediment dynamics on exposed fringing reefs might change in response to this rapid sea-level rise. Coupled hydrodynamic and sediment-transport numerical modeling is consistent with recent published results that suggest that an increase in water depth on the order of 0.5–1.0xa0m on a 1–2 m deep exposed fringing reef flat would result in larger significant wave heights and setup, further elevating water depths on the reef flat. Larger waves would generate higher near-bed shear stresses, which, in turn, would result in an increase in both the size and the quantity of sediment that can be resuspended from the seabed or eroded from adjacent coastal plain deposits. Greater wave- and wind-driven currents would develop with increasing water depth, increasing the alongshore and offshore flux of water and sediment from the inner reef flat to the outer reef flat and fore reef where coral growth is typically greatest. Sediment residence time on the fringing reef flat was modeled to decrease exponentially with increasing sea-level rise as the magnitude of sea-level rise approached the mean water depth over the reef flat. The model results presented here suggest that a 0.5–1.0xa0m rise in sea level will likely increase coastal erosion, mixing and circulation, the amount of sediment resuspended, and the duration of high turbidity on exposed reef flats, resulting in decreased light availability for photosynthesis, increased sediment-induced stress on the reef ecosystem, and potentially affecting a number of other ecological processes.

Many Atolls May be Uninhabitable Within Decades Due to Climate Change.

Observations show global sea level is rising due to climate change, with the highest rates in the tropical Pacific Ocean where many of the world’s low-lying atolls are located. Sea-level rise is particularly critical for low-lying carbonate reef-lined atoll islands; these islands have limited land and water available for human habitation, water and food sources, and ecosystems that are vulnerable to inundation from sea-level rise. Here we demonstrate that sea-level rise will result in larger waves and higher wave-driven water levels along atoll islands’ shorelines than at present. Numerical model results reveal waves will synergistically interact with sea-level rise, causing twice as much land forecast to be flooded for a given value of sea-level rise than currently predicted by current models that do not take wave-driven water levels into account. Atolls with islands close to the shallow reef crest are more likely to be subjected to greater wave-induced run-up and flooding due to sea-level rise than those with deeper reef crests farther from the islands’ shorelines. It appears that many atoll islands will be flooded annually, salinizing the limited freshwater resources and thus likely forcing inhabitants to abandon their islands in decades, not centuries, as previously thought.

Validation of a coupled wave-flow model in a high-energy setting: The mouth of the Columbia River

[1]xa0A monthlong time series of wave, current, salinity, and suspended-sediment measurements was made at five sites on a transect across the Mouth of Columbia River (MCR). These data were used to calibrate and evaluate the performance of a coupled hydrodynamic and wave model for the MCR based on the Delft3D modeling system. The MCR is a dynamic estuary inlet in which tidal currents, river discharge, and wave-driven currents are all important. Model tuning consisted primarily of spatial adjustments to bottom drag coefficients. In combination with (near-) default parameter settings, the MCR model application is able to simulate the dominant features in the tidal flow, salinity and wavefields observed in field measurements. The wave-orbital averaged method for representing the current velocity profile in the wave model is considered the most realistic for the MCR. The hydrodynamic model is particularly effective in reproducing the observed vertical residual and temporal variations in current structure. Density gradients introduce the observed and modeled reversal of the mean flow at the bed and augment mean and peak flow in the upper half of the water column. This implies that sediment transport during calmer summer conditions is controlled by density stratification and is likely net landward due to the reversal of flow near the bed. The correspondence between observed and modeled hydrodynamics makes this application a tool to investigate hydrodynamics and associated sediment transport.

A survey of benthic sediment contaminants in reaches of the Columbia River Estuary based on channel sedimentation characteristics

While previous studies have documented contaminants in fish, sediments, water, and wildlife, few specifics are known about the spatial distribution of contaminants in the Columbia River Estuary (CRE). Our study goal was to characterize sediment contaminant detections and concentrations in reaches of the CRE that were concurrently being sampled to assess contaminants in water, invertebrates, fish, and osprey (Pandion haliaetus) eggs. Our objectives were to develop a survey design based on sedimentation characteristics and then assess whether sediment grain size, total organic carbon (TOC), and contaminant concentrations and detections varied between areas with different sedimentation characteristics. We used a sediment transport model to predict sedimentation characteristics of three 16km river reaches in the CRE. We then compartmentalized the modeled change in bed mass after a two week simulation to define sampling strata with depositional, stable, or erosional conditions. We collected and analyzed bottom sediments to assess whether substrate composition, organic matter composition, and contaminant concentrations and detections varied among strata within and between the reaches. We observed differences in grain size fractions between strata within and between reaches. We found that the fine sediment fraction was positively correlated with TOC. Contaminant concentrations were statistically different between depositional vs. erosional strata for the industrial compounds, personal care products and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons class (Indus-PCP-PAH). We also observed significant differences between strata in the number of detections of Indus-PCP-PAH (depositional vs. erosional; stable vs. erosional) and for the flame retardants, polychlorinated biphenyls, and pesticides class (depositional vs. erosional, depositional vs. stable). When we estimated mean contaminant concentrations by reach, we observed higher contaminant concentrations in the furthest downstream reach with a decreasing trend in the two upstream reaches. Contaminant survey designs that account for sedimentation characteristics could increase the probability that sampling is allocated to areas likely to be contaminated.

Modeling fine-scale coral larval dispersal and interisland connectivity to help designate mutually-supporting coral reef marine protected areas: Insights from Maui Nui, Hawaii

Connectivity among individual marine protected areas (MPAs) is one of the most important considerations in the design of integrated MPA networks. To provide such information for managers in Hawaii, USA, a numerical circulation model was developed to determine the role of ocean currents in transporting coral larvae from natal reefs throughout the high volcanic islands of the Maui Nui island complex in the southeastern Hawaiian Archipelago. Spatially- and temporally-varying wind, wave, and circulation model outputs were used to drive a km-scale, 3-dimensional, physics-based circulation model for Maui Nui. The model was calibrated and validated using satellite-tracked ocean surface current drifters deployed during coral-spawning conditions, then used to simulate the movement of the larvae of the dominant reef-building coral, Porites compressa, from 17 reefs during 8 spawning events in 2010-2013. These simulations make it possible to investigate not only the general dispersal patterns from individual coral reefs, but also how anomalous conditions during individual spawning events can result in large deviations from those general patterns. These data also help identify those reefs that are dominated by self-seeding and those where self-seeding is limited to determine their relative susceptibility to stressors and potential roadblocks to recovery. Overall, the numerical model results indicate that many of the coral reefs in Maui Nui seed reefs on adjacent islands, demonstrating the interconnected nature of the coral reefs in Maui Nui and providing a key component of the scientific underpinning essential for the design of a mutually supportive network of MPAs to enhance conservation of coral reefs.

A numerical model investigation of the formation and persistence of an erosion hotspot

A Delft3D-SWAN coupled flow and wave model was constructed for the San Francisco Bight with high-resolution at 7 km-long Ocean Beach, a high-energy beach located immediately south of the Golden Gate, the sole entrance to San Francisco Bay. The model was used to investigate tidal and waveinduced flows, basic forcing terms, and potential sediment transport in an area in the southern portion of Ocean Beach that has eroded significantly over the last several decades. The model predicted flow patterns that were favorable for sediment removal from the area and net erosion from the surf-zone. Analysis of the forcing terms driving surf-zone flows revealed that wave refraction over an exposed wastewater outfall pipe between the 12 and 15 m isobaths introduces a perturbation in the wave field that results in erosion-causing flows. Modeled erosion agreed well with five years of topographic survey data from the area.

The influence of sea-level rise on fringing reef sediment dynamics: field observations and numerical modeling

While most climate projections suggest that sea level may rise on the order of 0.5-1.0 m by 2100, it is not clear how fluid flow and sediment transport on fringing reefs might change in response to this rapid sea-level rise. Field observations and numerical modeling suggest that an increase in water depth on the order of 0.5-1.0 m on a fringing reef flat would result in larger significant wave heights and wave-driven shear stresses, which, in turn, would result in an increase in both the size and quantity of sediment that can be resuspended from the seabed or eroded from coastal plain deposits. Greater waveand wind-driven currents would develop on the reef flat with increasing water depth, increasing the offshore flux of water and sediment from the inner reef flat to the outer reef flat and fore reef where coral growth is typically greatest.