Elvanio Costa de Souza

Agroindústria canavieira e crescimento econômico local

This study analyses the impacts on the economic growth of Cidade Gaucha, in Parana state, caused by the Usaciga plant installation. Regional development approaches, related to the role of technical interlinks and of the industry over the process of local growth, were used as theoretical reference. Primary data were given by the company and secondary data, gathered from IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) and from Ipardes (Parana Institute of Economic and Social Development). As a result, the Usaciga generates 2.195 direct jobs currently. The company and, as a consequence, the income growth in the city, has stimulated activities that supply the local demand. Therefore, Cidade Gaucha showed a population growth (urban and total) higher than the one registered in the Northwestern region of Parana from 1980 to 2000. At the same time, the loss in rural population was less expressive in Cidade Gaucha. On the other hand, the regional focus only on the sugarcane agro industry concerns. Current problems caused by the regional specialization in coffee production, which happened in the past, confirm the mistake in this kind of strategy.

Irrigação como estratégia de adaptação de pequenos agricultores às mudanças climáticas: aspectos econômicos

This paper aims to analyze whether Brazilian smallholder farmers who adopt irrigation methods would be more resilient to climate change when compared to smallholders producing rainfed crops. We developed a treatment effects model, based in the Propensity Score Matching technique, which can explain irrigation adoption and net revenues simultaneously. Temperature and precipitation projections for 2010-2099 were used considering different climate scenarios according to the 4th Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Results confirmed the efficiency of irrigation as an adaptive strategy. For all simulation scenarios, land values of irrigators are, on average, approximately twice the value of rainfed smallholders. It can be concluded that there is need of public policies focused on developing strategies to cope with global warming effects in the agricultural sector. Moreover, given the importance of irrigation adoption as an adaptive measure, it is needed to encourage the expansion of credit lines for irrigation investments, especially for less capitalized farmers.

Impacto das mudanças climáticas sobre a leishmaniose no Brasil

This paper sought to assess how climate change will affect the proliferation of leishmaniasis in Brazil in three time frames: 2010-2039, 2040-2079 and 2080-2100, and with two climate change scenarios. The relation of temperature, precipitation and the number of hospital admissions due to leishmaniasis was estimated and projections were made using these results. Results show that precipitation has a strong relation with leishmaniasis incidence and projections show that by the end of the twenty-first century there will be a 15% growth in the annual number of hospital admissions due to leishmaniasis in Brazil, compared to the base scenario (1992-2002). In regional terms, projections indicate growth in every region, with the exception of the Mid-West. The highest relative growth will be in the South of the country, while the highest increase in absolute terms will be observed in the Northeast region. In general, the incidence of leishmaniasis will grow in Brazil due to climate change.This paper sought to assess how climate change will affect the proliferation of leishmaniasis in Brazil in three time frames: 2010-2039, 2040-2079 and 2080-2100, and with two climate change scenarios. The relation of temperature, precipitation and the number of hospital admissions due to leishmaniasis was estimated and projections were made using these results. Results show that precipitation has a strong relation with leishmaniasis incidence and projections show that by the end of the twenty-first century there will be a 15% growth in the annual number of hospital admissions due to leishmaniasis in Brazil, compared to the base scenario (1992-2002). In regional terms, projections indicate growth in every region, with the exception of the Mid-West. The highest relative growth will be in the South of the country, while the highest increase in absolute terms will be observed in the Northeast region. In general, the incidence of leishmaniasis will grow in Brazil due to climate change.

CONDIÇÃO DE OCUPAÇÃO E INFORMALIDADE NO MERCADO DE TRABALHO BRASILEIRO EM 2007

Entre os problemas que afetam o mercado de trabalho brasileiro, a informalidade merece destaque, pois atinge cerca de 50% da populacao economicamente ativa. Este artigo procurou identificar quais fatores exercem maior influencia sobre a condicao de ocupacao de um individuo brasileiro economicamente ativo de 16 anos ou mais de idade. Para tal, utilizaram-se as informacoes da Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicilios (PNAD) de 2007 e o modelo logit multinomial. A idade e a escolaridade tem efeito positivo sobre a probabilidade de uma pessoa conseguir um emprego, principalmente formal. Individuos do sexo masculino e individuos brancos ou amarelos tem mais chances de estar empregados, sobretudo formalmente. Aqueles que residem no meio rural tem menor probabilidade de estar desocupados. Morar nas regioes Nordeste e Norte aumenta a probabilidade de trabalhar informalmente.