Dênis Antônio da Cunha

A social and ecological assessment of tropical land uses at multiple scales: the Sustainable Amazon Network

Science has a critical role to play in guiding more sustainable development trajectories. Here, we present the Sustainable Amazon Network (Rede Amazônia Sustentável, RAS): a multidisciplinary research initiative involving more than 30 partner organizations working to assess both social and ecological dimensions of land-use sustainability in eastern Brazilian Amazonia. The research approach adopted by RAS offers three advantages for addressing land-use sustainability problems: (i) the collection of synchronized and co-located ecological and socioeconomic data across broad gradients of past and present human use; (ii) a nested sampling design to aid comparison of ecological and socioeconomic conditions associated with different land uses across local, landscape and regional scales; and (iii) a strong engagement with a wide variety of actors and non-research institutions. Here, we elaborate on these key features, and identify the ways in which RAS can help in highlighting those problems in most urgent need of attention, and in guiding improvements in land-use sustainability in Amazonia and elsewhere in the tropics. We also discuss some of the practical lessons, limitations and realities faced during the development of the RAS initiative so far.

Nitrogen-Use Efficiency, Nitrous Oxide Emissions, and Cereal Production in Brazil: Current Trends and Forecasts

The agriculture sector has historically been a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions into the atmosphere. Although the use of synthetic fertilizers is one of the most common widespread agricultural practices, over-fertilization can lead to negative economic and environmental consequences, such as high production costs, depletion of energy resources, and increased GHG emissions. Here, we provide an analysis to understand the evolution of cereal production and consumption of nitrogen (N) fertilizers in Brazil and to correlate N use efficiency (NUE) with economic and environmental losses as N2O emissions. Our results show that the increased consumption of N fertilizers is associated with a large decrease in NUE in recent years. The CO2 eq. of N2O emissions originating from N fertilization for cereal production were approximately 12 times higher in 2011 than in 1970, indicating that the inefficient use of N fertilizers is directly related to environmental losses. The projected N fertilizer forecasts are 2.09 and 2.37 million ton for 2015 and 2023, respectively. An increase of 0.02% per year in the projected NUE was predicted for the same time period. However, decreases in the projected CO2 eq. emissions for future years were not predicted. In a hypothetical scenario, a 2.39% increase in cereal NUE would lead to

Irrigação como estratégia de adaptação de pequenos agricultores às mudanças climáticas: aspectos econômicos

21 million savings in N fertilizer costs. Thus, increases in NUE rates would lead not only to agronomic and environmental benefits but also to economic improvement.

Impacto das mudanças climáticas sobre a leishmaniose no Brasil

This paper aims to analyze whether Brazilian smallholder farmers who adopt irrigation methods would be more resilient to climate change when compared to smallholders producing rainfed crops. We developed a treatment effects model, based in the Propensity Score Matching technique, which can explain irrigation adoption and net revenues simultaneously. Temperature and precipitation projections for 2010-2099 were used considering different climate scenarios according to the 4th Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Results confirmed the efficiency of irrigation as an adaptive strategy. For all simulation scenarios, land values of irrigators are, on average, approximately twice the value of rainfed smallholders. It can be concluded that there is need of public policies focused on developing strategies to cope with global warming effects in the agricultural sector. Moreover, given the importance of irrigation adoption as an adaptive measure, it is needed to encourage the expansion of credit lines for irrigation investments, especially for less capitalized farmers.

Sistemas Agroflorestais como Estratégia de Adaptação aos Desafios das Mudanças Climáticas no Brasil

This paper sought to assess how climate change will affect the proliferation of leishmaniasis in Brazil in three time frames: 2010-2039, 2040-2079 and 2080-2100, and with two climate change scenarios. The relation of temperature, precipitation and the number of hospital admissions due to leishmaniasis was estimated and projections were made using these results. Results show that precipitation has a strong relation with leishmaniasis incidence and projections show that by the end of the twenty-first century there will be a 15% growth in the annual number of hospital admissions due to leishmaniasis in Brazil, compared to the base scenario (1992-2002). In regional terms, projections indicate growth in every region, with the exception of the Mid-West. The highest relative growth will be in the South of the country, while the highest increase in absolute terms will be observed in the Northeast region. In general, the incidence of leishmaniasis will grow in Brazil due to climate change.This paper sought to assess how climate change will affect the proliferation of leishmaniasis in Brazil in three time frames: 2010-2039, 2040-2079 and 2080-2100, and with two climate change scenarios. The relation of temperature, precipitation and the number of hospital admissions due to leishmaniasis was estimated and projections were made using these results. Results show that precipitation has a strong relation with leishmaniasis incidence and projections show that by the end of the twenty-first century there will be a 15% growth in the annual number of hospital admissions due to leishmaniasis in Brazil, compared to the base scenario (1992-2002). In regional terms, projections indicate growth in every region, with the exception of the Mid-West. The highest relative growth will be in the South of the country, while the highest increase in absolute terms will be observed in the Northeast region. In general, the incidence of leishmaniasis will grow in Brazil due to climate change.

PODER DE MERCADO NA INDÚSTRIA DE MINERAÇÃO DE PEDRA BRITADA DA REGIÃO METROPOLITANA DE SÃO PAULO

This paper analyzes the role of agroforestry systems (AFS) as an adaptative measure to climate change in Brazil. A treatment-effects model (Propensity Score Matching) was developed. We identified the main determinants of the use of AFS and if the municipalities in which this technique is used are less vulnerable to climate change. The results showed that socioeconomic variables (land ownership, financing options, access to information and technical assistance) and agronomic variables (water resources availability and soil quality) influence the adoption of agroforestry systems in Brazilian municipalities. Climate conditions (temperature and precipitation) also play an important role in the use of these systems, which confirms their role as an adaptative strategy. It was also concluded that the AFS have the potential to improve the Brazilian agricultural performance due to the fact that the land value tends to be higher in municipalities where these systems are used. Thus, the AFS can make the agricultural sector less exposed to the negative effects of climate change in both the present and in future scenarios.

EFEITOS DAS MUDANÇAS CLIMÁTICAS NO SETOR AGRÍCOLA DO ESTADO DE MINAS GERAIS.

The objective of this study is to analyze the conduct of companies of crushed stone industry in the Metropolitan Region of Sao Paulo (MRSP), Brazil. The methodological approach is based on the New Empirical Industrial Organization (NEIO) and refers to the market power and cartel formation after the conviction of these practices. The results indicated that the industry has a small but significant market power. At the same time, the industry behavior is different from a cartel behavior. In this way, it is possible to conclude that complaints and sanctions imposed to companies that participated in the formation of the cartel in the MRSP were effective, since in the period from 2002 to 2013 there is no evidence that a cartel operates in this market.

Crédito rural como fator determinante para as exportações brasileiras de soja em grão, junho de 2000 a janeiro de 2010

Este estudo teve como objetivo analisar os efeitos das mudancas climaticas sobre o setor agricola de Minas Gerais. Metodologicamente, foi utilizado o modelo Ricardiano, que permitiu estimar como as alteracoes do clima, em diferentes localidades, poderao afetar o valor da terra dos produtores. As projecoes de mudanca climatica foram baseadas nas previsoes de temperatura e precipitacao dos cenarios A1B e A2 do Painel Intergovernamental de Mudancas Climaticas (IPCC). Em termos medios, os resultados indicaram que, em todos os periodos de simulacao, o valor da terra dos produtores mineiros podera apresentar uma pequena elevacao (de, no maximo, 0,31% em relacao ao periodo atual). Esse resultado, entretanto, nao deve gerar a falsa impressao de que a agricultura de Minas Gerais nao seria afetada pelas mudancas climaticas. Pelo contrario, quando se desagregam os resultados, verifica-se que aproximadamente 60% dos municipios poderao sofrer elevadas perdas, que poderao chegar a R

Integração e transmissão de preços no mercado internacional de café arábica

24 milhoes ja em 2020. Portanto, os formuladores de politicas devem observar atentamente as avaliacoes de impacto de modo a identificar as opcoes de adaptacao mais eficazes, sendo necessario programar acoes locais e descentralizadas, o que permitira mais flexibilidade e resultados mais beneficos localmente.

INTEGRAÇÃO ESPACIAL DO MERCADO BRASILEIRO DE BOI GORDO: UMA ANÁLISE DE CO-INTEGRAÇÃO COM THRESHOLD

Rural credit was considered an input capable of increasing the Brazilian soybean production, shifting the supply curve to the right internal and generating surplus exportable grain. The main objective of this study was to analyze the effects of rural credit in Brazilian exports of soybeans during the period June 2000 to January 2010. The theoretical support was the theory of production and export supply. The results obtained by the model error correction (VEC), indicated that rural credit was one of the most significant determinants for the evolution of Brazilian exports of soybeans, behind only the exchange rate. The credit had positive and direct relationship with the quantity supplied showing the second largest estimated coefficient of elasticity.