Alexandre Bragança Coelho

Padrão de consumo de alimentos no Brasil

Food purchasing in Brazil has undergone major changes in the last few decades caused by structural shifts such as urbanization, changes in demographic characteristics and increase in participation of women in the labor force. Therefore, it is necessary to identify thoroughly new consumption patterns of families, especially concerning determinants of food purchasing decision. The objective of this study was to understand the consumption pattern of Brazilian families for food products by means of a qualitative response variable model including eighteen food products using POF 2002/2003 data. The Probit model was chosen to estimate this decision. Estimation results showed that purchasing probabilities of staple foods were negative related to family monthly income, while meat, milk and other products showed a positive relation. Regional, educational and urbanization variables were also important. Households whose head is a woman have smaller purchasing probabilities in most commodities in the sample.

A cultura do algodão e a questão da integração entre preços internos e externos

Este artigo tem como objetivo analisar a interacao entre precos internos e externos do algodao nas ultimas duas decadas para determinar se a abertura comercial ocorrida na decada de 90 representou um aumento da influencia dos precos externos sobre os precos internos da pluma no pais. Para este fim, a metodologia escolhida foi a analise de co-integracao, especificamente o Procedimento de Johansen. Os resultados obtidos com a analise da amostra completa indicam que o mercado brasileiro e o norte-americano podem ser considerados perfeitamente integrados. Dividindo a amostra, os resultados referentes a decada de 80 mostram que o mercado brasileiro de algodao em pluma pode ser considerado como um mercado fechado neste periodo, enquanto na decada de 90 os resultados indicam que o mercado brasileiro pode ser considerado integrado aos mercados internacionais.

Food demand in Brazil: an application of Shonkwiler & Yen Two-Step estimation method

The objective of the analysis is to estimate a demand system including eighteen food products using data from a Brazilian Household Budget Survey carried out in 2002 and 2003 (POF 2002/2003). The functional form used was Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS). Estimation employs the Shonkwiler and Yen method to account for zero consumption. Results showed that purchase probabilities of staples foods were negatively related to family monthly income, while meat, milk and other products showed a positive relation. Regional, educational and urbanization variables were also important in the first stage estimation. While some of the goods had negative income coefficients, none were inferior and six of eighteen were luxuries based on second stage estimates.

Irrigação como estratégia de adaptação de pequenos agricultores às mudanças climáticas: aspectos econômicos

This paper aims to analyze whether Brazilian smallholder farmers who adopt irrigation methods would be more resilient to climate change when compared to smallholders producing rainfed crops. We developed a treatment effects model, based in the Propensity Score Matching technique, which can explain irrigation adoption and net revenues simultaneously. Temperature and precipitation projections for 2010-2099 were used considering different climate scenarios according to the 4th Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Results confirmed the efficiency of irrigation as an adaptive strategy. For all simulation scenarios, land values of irrigators are, on average, approximately twice the value of rainfed smallholders. It can be concluded that there is need of public policies focused on developing strategies to cope with global warming effects in the agricultural sector. Moreover, given the importance of irrigation adoption as an adaptive measure, it is needed to encourage the expansion of credit lines for irrigation investments, especially for less capitalized farmers.

Impacto das mudanças climáticas sobre a leishmaniose no Brasil

This paper sought to assess how climate change will affect the proliferation of leishmaniasis in Brazil in three time frames: 2010-2039, 2040-2079 and 2080-2100, and with two climate change scenarios. The relation of temperature, precipitation and the number of hospital admissions due to leishmaniasis was estimated and projections were made using these results. Results show that precipitation has a strong relation with leishmaniasis incidence and projections show that by the end of the twenty-first century there will be a 15% growth in the annual number of hospital admissions due to leishmaniasis in Brazil, compared to the base scenario (1992-2002). In regional terms, projections indicate growth in every region, with the exception of the Mid-West. The highest relative growth will be in the South of the country, while the highest increase in absolute terms will be observed in the Northeast region. In general, the incidence of leishmaniasis will grow in Brazil due to climate change.This paper sought to assess how climate change will affect the proliferation of leishmaniasis in Brazil in three time frames: 2010-2039, 2040-2079 and 2080-2100, and with two climate change scenarios. The relation of temperature, precipitation and the number of hospital admissions due to leishmaniasis was estimated and projections were made using these results. Results show that precipitation has a strong relation with leishmaniasis incidence and projections show that by the end of the twenty-first century there will be a 15% growth in the annual number of hospital admissions due to leishmaniasis in Brazil, compared to the base scenario (1992-2002). In regional terms, projections indicate growth in every region, with the exception of the Mid-West. The highest relative growth will be in the South of the country, while the highest increase in absolute terms will be observed in the Northeast region. In general, the incidence of leishmaniasis will grow in Brazil due to climate change.

CONDIÇÕES PARA IMPLANTAÇÃO DO CONTRATO FUTURO DE ARROZ NO BRASIL

Este artigo tem como objetivo avaliar a viabilidade da implantacao de um contrato futuro para o arroz no Brasil, como alternativa para minimizar as incertezas associadas as variacoes nos precos do produto. Para atingir o objetivo, foi utilizada a Teoria do Sucesso e Fracasso de Contratos Futuros. Os resultados revelaram que, antes da criacao de um contrato futuro, ha a necessidade do desenvolvimento de um mercado a termo para o produto. Alem disso, e necessario que o governo diminua a intervencao no mercado para que os precos sejam formados somente pelas leis de oferta e demanda de mercado. Outro problema e a tendencia de concentracao no setor beneficiador, que pode constituir um empecilho para a implantacao de um contrato futuro bem-sucedido. Tambem foi utilizada a integracao de mercado para verificar se os mercados de arroz irrigado e de sequeiro sao integrados. Os dados mostraram que os mercados sao integrados e que o estado do Rio Grande do Sul e o estado formador dos precos do arroz no Brasil.

CRESCIMENTO ECONÔMICO E EMISSÃO DE CO2 POR COMBUSTÍVEIS FÓSSEIS: UMA ANÁLISE DA HIPÓTESE DA CURVA DE KUZNETS AMBIENTAL

A preocupacao contemporânea com meio-ambiente instiga questionamentos quanto aos efeitos do crescimento economico na degradacao do ambiente natural e quanto a sustentabilidade do modelo de desenvolvimento. Utilizando uma amostra de 42 anos para 13 paises, o presente trabalho verifica que a relacao entre crescimento economico e emissoes de gas carbonico tem a forma logaritmica, crescendo a taxas decrescentes. A funcao obtida e utilizada para prever as emissoes brasileiras para as proximas decadas ate 2050. Por meio das projecoes, e possivel inferir que as emissoes de combustiveis fosseis no Brasil atingirao um nivel insustentavel durante a decada de 2020, sendo necessario um esforco por parte dos agentes economicos e publicos no sentido de se adotar medidas para garantir a sustentabilidade ambiental do crescimento economico nacional.

AGRONEGÓCIO E INVESTIMENTO DIRETO ESTRANGEIRO: UMA ANÁLISE DO IMPACTO SOBRE AS EXPORTAÇÕES BRASILEIRAS

O agronegocio vem contribuindo com superavits expressivos na balanca comercial nos ultimos anos. Esses superavits serviram para contrabalancar deficits em outros setores e foram fundamentais para a obtencao dos grandes superavits da balanca comercial a partir de 2002 O Brasil, na decada de noventa, assumiu posicao de destaque como importante receptor de investimento direto estrangeiro (IDE). O objetivo deste trabalho e avaliar ate que ponto a entrada de IDE no agronegocio levou a um aumento da exportacao do setor. O metodo utilizado na investigacao foi a analise multivariada discriminante. Esse metodo e bastante adequado, ja que possibilita identificar grupos de atividades que mais exportam e, assim, fornece ferramentas de planejamento as agencias governamentais na construcao de politicas que possibilitem alocacao do IDE de acordo com os objetivos da politica economica. Os resultados mostraram que o volume de IDE nao possui qualquer relacao na distincao entre os grupos de atividades que mais exportam, o que sugere que seu montante nao esta relacionado com maiores quantidades exportadas. -------------------------------------------------Agribusiness has been generating huge trade surpluses in the last few years. These surpluses were crucial because they compensated trade deficits in other areas and allowed Brazil to have a general trade surplus from 2002 on. Brazil assumed an important position as receiver of foreign direct investments (FDI) in the nineties. The objective of this paper is to evaluate whether the incoming of FDI caused an increase on agribusiness exports. The methodology was multivariate discriminant analysis. This method is suitable because it allows the identification of more exporting activities and provides planning tools to policy makers to design FDI allocation policies. Results showed that the volume of FDI does not have any relationship in the distinction of more exporting activities, which suggests that this amount is not related to more exports.

Padrão de Substituição entre Carnes no Consumo Domiciliar do Brasil

There were major changes in household demand for meat in Brazil in recent years, such as the increasing importance of processed cuts. It is well known that changes in meat consumption may significantly affect household nutritional status and consequently people’s health and life quality. Therefore the aim of this study was to analyze the demand for meat from Brazilian families and understand the pattern of substitution between beef, pork and broiler as well as within these subgroups. Data was obtained from the Brazilian Household Consumption Survey (POF/IBGE 2008/2009). Demand patterns for meats that emerge from this study showed the importance of education, family composition and household location on determinants of meats acquisition. We also conclude that there is a changing trend of intra-group consumption in the case of chicken meat, a behavior that is not observed for pork and beef, where the intra-group exchange takes place only if the meat is considered to have good quality.

ALIMENTAÇÃO FORA DE CASA: UMA INVESTIGAÇÃO SOBRE OS DETERMINANTES DA DECISÃO DE CONSUMO DOS DOMICÍLIOS BRASILEIROS

This paper investigates the determinant factors of the consumption decision of food away from home for different categories of food in Brazil. Precisely, the variables that can influence this consumption are analyzed, since food away from home has presented a growing share of Brazilian consumers’ diet. The results indicate that the variables of income, of women’s opportunity cost of time and others that capture changes in time constraint in households are important to explain the decision of consumption of food away from home in the Brazilian case.