Emerson Marinho

Os Programas de Transferência de Renda do Governo Impactam a Pobreza no Brasil

The widespread view that income transfers help to reduce the incidence of poverty has been asserted by many policymakers and citizens who support income transfer programs in Brazil. Nevertheless, a number of analysts contend that such programs are in fact ineffective in reducing poverty, because only a small share of the income that is transferred actually reaches the poor, or because such programs create a poverty trap. This article peruses this issue investigating the relationship between poverty and government income transfer in Brazil, over the period 2000-2008, controlling for other relevant variables that may affect poverty such as economic growth, inequality, education, unemployment and the number of female-headed families. Results from dynamic panel data models, proposed by Arellano e Bond (1991) and Blundell e Bond (1998), indicate that poverty is not affected by government income transfers, which support the critic view that income transfer programs in Brazil do not have the expect effect on poverty. Among other findings, education and inequality play an important role in the recent poverty dynamics in Brazil.

Evidências empíricas da lei de Kaldor-Verdoorn para a indústria de transformação do Brasil (1985-1997)

In this paper, we have tried to discuss theoretically Kaldor-Verdoorns Law, showing its relevance to the determination of how dynamic an industry of country on region can be. Furthermore, we have made an empirical test of such theoretical proposition for the Brazilian industry during the period 1985 to 1997, using an error correction model (MCE), whose results indicate that the Brazilian industry has been reasonably dynamic, specially after the opening process of its economy had begun, in 1990, when a combination of short and long run effects made productivity grow more intensively than production.

Produtividade e crescimento econômico na América Latina: a abordagem da fronteira de produção estocástica

This paper examines the aggregate productivity performance and discusses the economic growth experience in Latin America. A translog stochastic frontier is fitted with inefficiency effects to a panel of 19 Latin American countries for the period 1961 to 1990. Estimate productivity growth is decomposed into two components: technological progress and efficiency change. We use Malmquist Index to calculate total productivity factor (TFP) change. Applying international data sets, this study aims to: (1) examine the contribution of productivity to economic growth in Latin America, (2) investigate the sources of technical inefficiency, and (3) shed some light on the perfomance among Latin America economies. With this framework we show that total productivity factor perfomance was the main reason for low growth of Latin America.

Desigualdade de renda e eficiência técnica na geração de bem-estar entre os estados brasileiros

In this paper we utilize the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), a non-parametric method, to estimate measures of technical efficiency of the Brazilian states in the generation of welfare between 1986 and 1998. The basic welfare measures considered include the measure developed by Sen and, alternatively, GDP per capita and the Human Development Index (HDI). Additionally, Theils inter and intra-regional income inequality measures are calculated so that the path of income inequality as a determinant of welfare could also be analyzed for Brazil. Comparing these inequality measures in the beginning and in the end of the period in analysis, we note that only in the Northeast and in the Southeast was that inequality was significantly reduced. And, regarding the measures of efficiency in the generation of welfare, the model using Sens measures or GDP per capita indicate that the states of Sao Paulo, Rio Grande do Sul, Amazonas, Roraima, and Amapa are the most efficient among all Brazilian states. When the HDI is considered, the same states are the most efficient with the exception of Sao Paulo.

The impact of government income transfers on the Brazilian job market

This paper intends to analyze the impact of transferences over the formal and informal labor supply from the family heads. For the analyze of the effects in scope of the entrance decisions in job market it was estimated a multinomial logit, while in the scope of the working time it was used a variation of the method of Durbin and McFadden (1984) for selection bias correction. It has verified that transferences have positive effect over the probabilities that the individual doesn’t work and does informally work. However, this last one seems to be related to a substitution effect, once it has been observed a parallel negative effect over the probability to work on the formal sector. It has been obtained yet that the benefits negatively impacts on the offered hours by the family heads whether in the formal or non-formal sector, effect that has happened to be verified on the hours offering in formal sector of all individuals. On the other hand, as we consider the hours of working of those who are engaged in informal sector, it has obtained that income transferences perform not as a discourage issue but as a magnifier factor of worked hours.

Time Poverty in Brazil: Measurement and Analysis of its Determinants

This article analyzes well-being on an individual level, through the allocation of work hours done by adults and children and thus it measures time poverty in Brazil. In order to achieve such measurement, poverty indicators such as Foster, Greer and Thorbecke (FGT) were adapted into a time poverty mode. Additionally, an analysis of its determinants was also conducted. Among other findings, the fact that women (either children and adult ones) are the time-poorest individuals in urban or rural areas. Another unfortunate finding is that the high rate of time poverty among children, numerically 16,1% is not far from the adult rate which is of 19,7%. The overall composite time poor individual profile is of an African-Brazilian adult woman of little education, not necessarily income poor and residing in an urban area of the northeast region, living in a household of few people, she is the mother of children who are younger than 14 years old.

Pobreza e o Sistema de Seguridade Social Rural no Brasil

This work aims at measuring the impact of the monetary benefits from social security retirement on poverty using panel data for the rural regions of the Brazilian states in the 1995-2005 period. The analysis is performed by controlling for other poverty determinants, such as the per capita agricultural product, income distribution, measured by the GINI index, the average of school years and the number of unemployed people over 10 years of age. The method of analysis relies on a dynamic econometric model which is estimated by the Generalized Method of Moments system, developed by Arellano e Bond (1991) and Blundell e Bond (1998). The results suggest that the retirement benefits have no direct impact on rural poverty in Brazil, whereas the average of school years and the per capita agricultural product are relevant factors for reducing rural poverty. On the other hand, the number of unemployed people has a positive effect on the increase of poverty, while the effect of income concentration is statistically insignificant.

Idleness, returns to education and child labor

Although recent trends about child labor are positive, see ILO (2006), there still are important shortcomings which require further investigation. Among them, the exclusion of the category “idle children” (those who neither work nor study) from past studies, as well as the lack of reliable information on returns to education are two significant omissions. By using a data base that contains details on idle children and a proxy for the returns to education, we find evidence that confirms traditional findings both with regard to the strong positive effect of parental background and to the positive relationship between the number of children in the household and child labor. On the other hand, our estimates point out new insights, such as the great regional variation of estimates and the fact that the Body Mass Index effect is positive. Finally, we suggest a new perspective on the issue of “street children” through the analysis of the category of “idle children”

A new approach to poverty in Brazil: a bidimensional measurement of well-being

This article analyzes poverty in Brazilian families using a bi-dimensional measure that considers both income and time allocation. The Vickery methodology (1977), in which poverty isoquant curves are built for each type of family structure, is used to identify the proportion of generalized poverty. The percentage of involuntarily and voluntarily poor families is also estimated. Among the results obtained, it can be seen that poverty rates increase significantly when time is considered as a resource because working parents, especially in single-parent families, very often do not have the time to perform essential household chores. A higher percentage of generalized poverty is found among single-parent families and among those with a higher number of children. The highest percentage of involuntarily poor people is found among families with a high number of children.

Os efeitos dos choques reais e nominais sobre as taxas de câmbio no Brasil

This article analyses the impact of real and nominal shocks on the real and nominal exchange rates between Brazil and the US in the period from1999 to 2007. The main objective is to verify the real and nominal exchange rates paths toward the long-run equilibrium, and how these rates can be decomposed into movements caused by real and nominal shocks. The results show that both types of exchange rates respond immediately to a nominal shock leading to overshooting. However, the effect of a nominal shock, on the real exchange rate is only temporary, while, on the nominal exchange rate, it is permanent. Subjected to a real shock both exchange rates jump to a level that overshoots their long run equilibrium, returning to it around 25 months. The real shock also has a permanent effect on the real and the nominal exchange rates.