Fatemeh Bakhtiari

International cooperative initiatives and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

ABSTRACT International cooperative initiatives (ICIs) are multi-country, multi-actor non-state actions that have the potential to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. The article summarizes the literature on estimates of emission reduction potentials attributed to ICIs. This summary highlights three key issues: there is a plethora of uncoordinated initiatives, often lacking specific, time-bound goals; to a greater or lesser extent most initiatives overlap with the activities conducted under the aegis of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC); and few initiatives have set up transparent performance monitoring and reporting mechanisms. The article concludes with two considerations. Firstly, it advocates for the United Nations Environment Programme as one entity that could bring much-needed coordination among ICIs, and between ICIs and national government-led efforts to mitigate climate change. Secondly, it echoes calls for the initiatives to both adopt transparent monitoring, reporting and verification mechanisms, and ensure that their activities are cost-effective with regard to climate change mitigation. Finally, the article outlines the key issues that will need to be addressed to achieve these goals. Key policy insights The emission reductions potential of international cooperative initiatives appears to be limited, which would question some of the rational for promoting them. The extent to which international cooperative initiatives overlap with emission reduction efforts under the UNFCCC is uncertain, but believed to be quite large. The UNFCCC is arguably ill suited to coordinate and strengthen the accountability of international cooperative initiatives.

The accountability imperative for quantifying the uncertainty of emission forecasts: evidence from Mexico

ABSTRACT Governmental climate change mitigation targets are typically developed with the aid of forecasts of greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. The robustness and credibility of such forecasts depends, among other issues, on the extent to which forecasting approaches can reflect prevailing uncertainties. We apply a transparent and replicable method to quantify the uncertainty associated with projections of gross domestic product growth rates for Mexico, a key driver of GHG emissions in the country. We use those projections to produce probabilistic forecasts of GHG emissions for Mexico. We contrast our probabilistic forecasts with Mexico’s governmental deterministic forecasts. We show that, because they fail to reflect such key uncertainty, deterministic forecasts are ill-suited for use in target-setting processes. We argue that (i) guidelines should be agreed upon, to ensure that governmental forecasts meet certain minimum transparency and quality standards, and (ii) governments should be held accountable for the appropriateness of the forecasting approach applied to prepare governmental forecasts, especially when those forecasts are used to derive climate change mitigation targets. POLICY INSIGHTS No minimum transparency and quality standards exist to guide the development of GHG emission scenario forecasts, not even when these forecasts are used to set national climate change mitigation targets. No accountability mechanisms appear to be in place at the national level to ensure that national governments rely on scientifically sound processes to develop GHG emission scenarios. Using probabilistic forecasts to underpin emission reduction targets represents a scientifically sound option for reflecting in the target the uncertainty to which those forecasts are subject, thus increasing the validity of the target. Setting up minimum transparency and quality standards, and holding governments accountable for their choice of forecasting methods could lead to more robust emission reduction targets nationally and, by extension, internationally.

Incorporating uncertainty in national-level climate change-mitigation policy: possible elements for a research agenda

Decision making for climate change management seldom incorporates uncertainty in the analysis that underpins the policy process. First, uncertainty is seldom characterised fully, and attempts to reduce uncertainty—when this is possible—are rare. Second, scientists are ill-equipped to communicate about uncertainty with policy makers, and policy makers most often favour pretended certainty over nuance and detail. Third, the uncertainty analysis that may have been conducted most often fails to actually influence policy in a significant manner. The case is made for (i) characterising and, to the extent possible, reducing uncertainty, (ii) communicating uncertainty, and (iii) reflecting uncertainty in the design of policy initiatives for climate change management. Possible elements for a research agenda on each of these areas are proposed.

The mismatch between the in-country determinants of technology transfer, and the scope of technology transfer initiatives under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

Despite decades of international political emphasis, little is known about the in-country determinants of technology transfer for climate change mitigation. We draw upon the conclusions of a series of standardised, official governmental statements of technology priorities, coupled with questionnaire-based data collection, to shed light on the nature of those determinants. We find that there is a disconnect between what developing country governments perceive as the key enablers of, and barriers to, technology transfer, and what bilateral and multilateral technology transfer programmes can offer, given budgetary constraints and the logic of development aid spending. We show that the well-established notion of making climate change mitigation actions an integral part of sound development plans is especially relevant for technology transfer. We offer pointers as to how this might be done in practice, in the context of the ‘technology action plans’ developed as part of the United Nations-sponsored technology needs assessment process.