Felipe Zambaldi

Electricity Consumption as a Predictor of Household Income: a Spatial Statistics Approach

This study is one of a series of research analyses carried out within the Integrated Research Program: Microcredit for Low Income Families in the city of Sao Paulo, supported by GVpesquisa (Getulio Vargas Research), a research agency maintained by Escola de Administracao de Empresas de Sao Paulo da Fundacao Getulio Vargas (FGV-EAESP). The authors would like to thank GVpesquisa for funding their research.

Mensuração em Marketing: Estado Atual, Recomendações e Desafios

The purpose of this article is to discuss about construct measurement in Marketing by summarizing the main considerations about the subject. First, it discusses the origins of the debates about the theme since the 1970s and describes its main consolidated models (the classical Churchill’s model, the COARSE model and the formative measurement model). Then it presents current concerns about the classical approach with relevant recommendations (particularly regarding multi-item measurement, single-item measurement, rating scales and cross-cultural aspects). At the end, it presents considerations about measurement trends in Marketing with emphasis on the Item Response Theory (IRT), Bayesian estimators and Partial Least Squares (PLS). The article updates the debate on the theme and contributes to Marketing experts and researchers who demand a current view about measurement and recommendations for research development.

Firm performance effects of nurturing political connections through campaign contributions

In a research context suggesting that there are positive effects of political connections on firm performance, this paper addressed one mechanism generating performance superiority: cash giving to political candidates in exchange for favors. A dataset from the major 2006 election for president, governor, senator, federal and state deputies was used to estimate a multilevel model of listed firms operating in Brazil, an interesting setting because political institutions favor a close one-to-one relationship between managers and politicians. The main results indicated that campaign contributions related positively to firm capital structure performance (Return on Equity) and to investors’ expectations of profit and value (Tobin’s q), but not operational profitability (Operational Return on Assets). Such a political strategy seemed to be a non-market source of advantage since connectedness apparently related to the reduction of transaction costs leading to financial advantage, but not significantly to opportunities associated with the generation of market failures. The results reinforced theoretical arguments that political connections directly improve firm performance by means of providing superior and lower-cost access to financial debt and foster market expectation and valuation due to close relations between businesses and politicians.

Development of an indicator of propensity to energy commercial losses using geospatial statistical techniques and socio-economic data: the case of AES Eletropaulo

Dada a crescente importância da integracao de indicadores de marketing e operacoes para melhorar o desempenho empresarial e a disponibilidade de sofisticadas tecnicas de estatistica espacial, este trabalho desenvolve um indicador de propensao a perdas comerciais de energia. Gestao de perdas e um tema estrategico para as empresas de distribuicao de energia, em particular para a AES Eletropaulo. Nesse contexto, os objetivos deste trabalho sao: (i) apropriar modelos espaciais autorregressivos e a geographically weighted regression (GWR - regressao ponderada geograficamente) para medir a influencia cultural da vizinhanca no comportamento do cliente no ato da fraude de energia; (ii) substituir as areas de cobertura de favela por um indice regional de vulnerabilidade social; e (iii) associar a perda de energia com indicadores de satisfacao de clientes, em uma abordagem espaco-temporal. Tecnicas de regressao espacial sao revisadas, seguidas por uma discussao sobre a vulnerabilidade social e os indicadores de satisfacao do cliente. Os dados operacionais obtidos por meio de sistemas de informacao geografica da AES Eletropaulo foram combinados com dados secundarios, a fim de gerar modelos preditivos de regressao, com a perda de energia como variavel resposta. Os resultados mostram que a incorporacao de dados sociais e de mercado sobre os clientes contribuem substancialmente para explicar a perda de energia - o coeficiente de determinacao dos modelos de regressao aumentou de 17,76% para 63,29%, quando comparados o modelo mais simples e o mais complexo. Sao apresentadas sugestoes para trabalhos futuros e discutidas oportunidades para a replicacao da metodologia em contextos comparaveis.

Assessing emerging multinationals’ “Global Mindedness” profiles

Despite the relevance of developing a global mindedness (GM) in order for firms to explore global opportunities, extant literature on GM has mostly focused on developed country multinationals, overlooking its relevance to emerging country multinationals which have unique features and internationalization patterns. In addition, the studies addressing the impacts of GM on internationalization have mostly relied on the assumption of homogeneity rather than differentiation of GM among multinationals of the same country. This study addresses this theme by exploring GM diversity among Brazilian multinationals. For that purpose, a previously developed multidimensional GM scale is adapted and validated by means of a pretest and a confirmatory factor analysis with Bayesian estimators, and used as the basis for a hierarchal cluster analysis, later optimized by means of the K-means algorithm. As a result, a GM taxonomy is identified, encompassing fully globally minded, cross-culturally skilled, international market-oriented, and domestic market-oriented multinationals. To illustrate the taxonomy, four case studies involving major Brazilian multinationals are brought to the fore by means of interviews and secondary data. The configurations identified points to the need to study GM in conjunction with both institutional and economic factors in order to explain singularities of the internationalization of emerging companies and also differentiations among firms from a single emerging country.

From prospect to student: an analysis of the factors that influence university selection

Como consequencia da flexibilizacao das regras para a abertura de cursos e instituicoes de ensino superior no Brasil, encetadas em 1995, observou-se, nos ultimos quinze anos, um expressivo aumento no numero de vagas oferecidas por instituicoes privadas de ensino superior. Neste periodo, ainda que o numero de alunos ingressantes no ensino superior brasileiro tenha mais que triplicado, verifica-se o aumento gradativo no hiato existente entre a oferta de vagas no ensino superior e sua respectiva demanda. Tal cenario se agrava, ao considerar-se que os indices de evasao de alunos vem aumentando. Assim, frente as pressoes de diminuicao no percentual de preenchimento de vagas, faz-se relevante e necessario as instituicoes privadas de ensino superior que se identifiquem estrategias mercadologicas adequadas as necessidades de manutencao ou expansao de sua atividade educacional. Nesse contexto, mediante estudo quantitativo e com base em amostra de 226 formandos do ensino medio na cidade de Piracicaba (SP), o objetivo deste estudo foi identificar os perfis sociodemograficos dos potenciais estudantes universitarios da regiao, bem como os atributos em torno dos quais a escolha por uma instituicao de ensino superior se organiza. Constatou-se que o perfil de alunos com intencao de ingressar em cursos superiores e composto por alunos da rede particular do ensino medio, com idade em torno de 17 anos, do sexo masculino, brancos e que nao trabalham. A partir dos dados coletados, sugere-se que as ofertas e comunicacoes universitarias efetivas devem ser aquelas que contemplem, alem da qualidade do ensino, as expectativas de seus prospects em termos de localizacao, viabilidade financeira, vida social, infraestrutura, tecnologia, atributos dos campi e reputacao da instituicao. Palavras-chave: marketing educacional, ensino superior, comportamento do consumidor, avaliacao de alternativas.