Finn Tarp

Aid and growth regressions

This paper examines the relationship between foreign aid and growth in real GDP per capita as it emerges from simple augmentations of popular cross-country growth specifications. It is shown that aid in all likelihood increases the growth rate, and this result is not conditional on ‘good’ policy. There are, however, decreasing returns to aid, and the estimated effectiveness of aid is highly sensitive to the choice of estimator and the set of control variables. When investment and human capital are controlled for, no positive effect of aid is found. Yet, aid continues to impact on growth via investment. We conclude by stressing the need for more theoretical work before this kind of cross-country regressions are used for policy purposes.

Aid effectiveness disputed

There is a widespread perception among academic researchers and aid practitioners alike that empirical cross‐country analysis fails to find any significant link between aid flows and growth, and that aid is successful only when associated with good policies in the recipient countries. These positions do not stand up to careful scrutiny of existing studies. In this paper, we offer a re‐examination of the literature on the aid–savings, aid–investment, and aid–growth relationships, and a comparative appraisal of more recent research contributions. Using an analytic framework for evaluating the empirical work, a coherent and positive picture of the aid–growth link emerges. There is a robust aid–growth link even in countries hampered by an unfavourable policy environment.

On the Empirics of Foreign Aid and Growth

This paper takes a fresh look at three issues in the aid effectiveness debate. First, we assess the theoretical case for foreign aid. Using an endogenous growth version of the standard overlapping generations model, we show that aid can be an effective policy tool in spurring growth in poor countries. This model also furnishes a theoretical foundation for the approach taken in many empirical studies. Second, we demonstrate that cross-country data, which underpin traditional cross-section based conclusions about the aid-growth link, are fully consistent with the positive evidence on aid effectiveness that emerge from recent panel-based regressions. Third, we reexamine the case for policy-based conditionality. Our empirical analysis suggests that aid is generally effective, even in “bad” environments. However, the degree to which aid enhances growth depends on climate-related circumstances.

Foreign Aid and Development: Lessons Learnt and Directions for the Future

Aid has worked in the past but can be made to work better in the future. In this important new book, leading economists and political scientists, including experienced aid practitioners, re-examine foreign aid. The evolution of development doctrine over the past fifty years is critically investigated, and conventional wisdom and current practice is challenged. As well as offering important new research material, the book opens up new directions for future practice and policy. It will be of vital interest to those working in economics, politics and development studies, as well as to governmental and aid professionals.

Aid, Growth, and Development: Have We Come Full Circle?

The micro-macro paradox has been revived. Despite broadly positive evaluations at the micro- and meso-levels, recent literature doubts the ability of foreign aid to foster economic growth and development. This paper assesses the aid-growth literature and, taking inspiration from the program evaluation literature, we re-examine key hypotheses. In our findings, aid has a positive and statistically significant causal effect on growth over the long run, with confidence intervals conforming to levels suggested by growth theory. Aid remains a key tool for enhancing the development prospects of poor countries.

Parameter estimation for a computable general equilibrium model: a maximum entropy approach

We introduce a maximum entropy approach to parameter estimation for computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The approach applies information theory to estimating a system of non-linear simultaneous equations. It has a number of advantages. First, it imposes all general equilibrium constraints. Second, it permits incorporation of prior information on parameter values. Third, it can be applied in the absence of copious data. Finally, it supplies measures of the capacity of the model to reproduce the historical record and the statistical significance of parameter estimates. The method is applied to estimating a CGE model of Mozambique.

The robustness of poverty profiles reconsidered

Poverty measures and profiles are used increasingly to guide antipoverty policies in low-income countries. An essential element in these analyses is the specification of a poverty line. However, there are many different methods for setting poverty lines, and different methods can yield strikingly different results, with correspondingly different policy implications. Using recent household survey data from Mozambique, this paper explores the differences that occur using the most common poverty line methodologies, the Food Energy Intake (FEI) and the Cost of Basic Needs (CBN) methods, over different levels of geographic specificity. We find that regional and provincial rankings of Foster, Greer, and Thorbecke poverty indices are not robust to the method of poverty line determination, but that the characteristics of the poor are reasonably similar under all methods. The FEI poverty lines often yield counterintuitive results, whereas the family of CBN poverty lines was more robust. Food consumption patterns of the poor show a high degree of substitution among basic staples from one region to another, which is consistent with observed differences in relative food prices, indicating that CBN poverty lines that allow for regional variation in the food consumption bundle may be most appropriate in these settings.

Biofuels, poverty, and growth: a computable general equilibrium analysis of Mozambique

This paper assesses the implications of large-scale investments in biofuels for growth and income distribution. We find that biofuels investment enhances growth and poverty reduction despite some displacement of food crops by biofuels. Overall, the biofuel investment trajectory analyzed increases Mozambiques annual economic growth by 0.6 percentage points and reduces the incidence of poverty by about 6 percentage points over a 12-year phase-in period. Benefits depend on production technology. An outgrower approach to producing biofuels is more pro-poor, due to the greater use of unskilled labor and accrual of land rents to smallholders, compared with the more capital-intensive plantation approach. Moreover, the benefits of outgrower schemes are enhanced if they result in technology spillovers to other crops. These results should not be taken as a green light for unrestrained biofuels development. Rather, they indicate that a carefully designed and managed biofuels policy holds the potential for substantial gains.

Formal and Informal Rural Credit in Four Provinces of Vietnam

Abstract This paper uses a survey of 932 rural households to uncover how the rural credit market operates in Vietnam. Households obtain credit through formal and informal lenders. Formal loans are almost entirely for production and asset accumulation, while informal loans are used for consumption smoothening. The determinants of formal and informal credit demand are distinct. While credit rationing depends on education and credit history, in particular, regional differences in the demand for credit are striking. A ‘one size fits all’ approach to credit policy in Vietnam would be inappropriate.

Aid and Growth : What Meta-Analysis Reveals

Abstract Recent literature in the meta-analysis category where results from a range of studies are brought together throws doubt on the ability of foreign aid to foster economic growth and development. This article assesses what meta-analysis has to contribute to the literature on the effectiveness of foreign aid in terms of growth impact. We re-examine key hypotheses, and find that the effect of aid on growth is positive and statistically significant. This significant effect is genuine, and not an artefact of publication selection. We also show why our results differ from those published elsewhere.