Eric J. Grant

Studies of the Mortality of Atomic Bomb Survivors, Report 14, 1950–2003: An Overview of Cancer and Noncancer Diseases

This is the 14th report in a series of periodic general reports on mortality in the Life Span Study (LSS) cohort of atomic bomb survivors followed by the Radiation Effects Research Foundation to investigate the late health effects of the radiation from the atomic bombs. During the period 1950–2003, 58% of the 86,611 LSS cohort members with DS02 dose estimates have died. The 6 years of additional follow-up since the previous report provide substantially more information at longer periods after radiation exposure (17% more cancer deaths), especially among those under age 10 at exposure (58% more deaths). Poisson regression methods were used to investigate the magnitude of the radiation-associated risks, the shape of the dose response, and effect modification by gender, age at exposure, and attained age. The risk of all causes of death was positively associated with radiation dose. Importantly, for solid cancers the additive radiation risk (i.e., excess cancer cases per 104 person-years per Gy) continues to increase throughout life with a linear dose–response relationship. The sex-averaged excess relative risk per Gy was 0.42 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.32, 0.53] for all solid cancer at age 70 years after exposure at age 30 based on a linear model. The risk increased by about 29% per decade decrease in age at exposure (95% CI: 17%, 41%). The estimated lowest dose range with a significant ERR for all solid cancer was 0 to 0.20 Gy, and a formal dose-threshold analysis indicated no threshold; i.e., zero dose was the best estimate of the threshold. The risk of cancer mortality increased significantly for most major sites, including stomach, lung, liver, colon, breast, gallbladder, esophagus, bladder and ovary, whereas rectum, pancreas, uterus, prostate and kidney parenchyma did not have significantly increased risks. An increased risk of non-neoplastic diseases including the circulatory, respiratory and digestive systems was observed, but whether these are causal relationships requires further investigation. There was no evidence of a radiation effect for infectious or external causes of death.

Radiation exposure and circulatory disease risk: Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bomb survivor data, 1950-2003

Objective To investigate the degree to which ionising radiation confers risk of mortality from heart disease and stroke. Design Prospective cohort study with more than 50 years of follow-up. Setting Atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan. Participants 86 611 Life Span Study cohort members with individually estimated radiation doses from 0 to >3 Gy (86% received <0.2 Gy). Main outcome measures Mortality from stroke or heart disease as the underlying cause of death and dose-response relations with atomic bomb radiation. Results About 9600 participants died of stroke and 8400 died of heart disease between 1950 and 2003. For stroke, the estimated excess relative risk per gray was 9% (95% confidence interval 1% to 17%, P=0.02) on the basis of a linear dose-response model, but an indication of possible upward curvature suggested relatively little risk at low doses. For heart disease, the estimated excess relative risk per gray was 14% (6% to 23%, P<0.001); a linear model provided the best fit, suggesting excess risk even at lower doses. However, the dose-response effect over the restricted dose range of 0 to 0.5 Gy was not significant. Prospective data on smoking, alcohol intake, education, occupation, obesity, and diabetes had almost no impact on the radiation risk estimates for either stroke or heart disease, and misdiagnosis of cancers as circulatory diseases could not account for the associations seen. Conclusion Doses above 0.5 Gy are associated with an elevated risk of both stroke and heart disease, but the degree of risk at lower doses is unclear. Stroke and heart disease together account for about one third as many radiation associated excess deaths as do cancers among atomic bomb survivors.

Association between body mass index and cardiovascular disease mortality in east Asians and south Asians: pooled analysis of prospective data from the Asia Cohort Consortium

Objective To evaluate the association between body mass index and mortality from overall cardiovascular disease and specific subtypes of cardiovascular disease in east and south Asians. Design Pooled analyses of 20 prospective cohorts in Asia, including data from 835 082 east Asians and 289 815 south Asians. Cohorts were identified through a systematic search of the literature in early 2008, followed by a survey that was sent to each cohort to assess data availability. Setting General populations in east Asia (China, Taiwan, Singapore, Japan, and Korea) and south Asia (India and Bangladesh). Participants 1 124 897 men and women (mean age 53.4 years at baseline). Main outcome measures Risk of death from overall cardiovascular disease, coronary heart disease, stroke, and (in east Asians only) stroke subtypes. Results 49 184 cardiovascular deaths (40 791 in east Asians and 8393 in south Asians) were identified during a mean follow-up of 9.7 years. East Asians with a body mass index of 25 or above had a raised risk of death from overall cardiovascular disease, compared with the reference range of body mass index (values 22.5-24.9; hazard ratio 1.09 (95% confidence interval 1.03 to 1.15), 1.27 (1.20 to 1.35), 1.59 (1.43 to 1.76), 1.74 (1.47 to 2.06), and 1.97 (1.44 to 2.71) for body mass index ranges 25.0-27.4, 27.5-29.9, 30.0-32.4, 32.5-34.9, and 35.0-50.0, respectively). This association was similar for risk of death from coronary heart disease and ischaemic stroke; for haemorrhagic stroke, the risk of death was higher at body mass index values of 27.5 and above. Elevated risk of death from cardiovascular disease was also observed at lower categories of body mass index (hazard ratio 1.19 (95% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.39) and 2.16 (1.37 to 3.40) for body mass index ranges 15.0-17.4 and <15.0, respectively), compared with the reference range. In south Asians, the association between body mass index and mortality from cardiovascular disease was less pronounced than that in east Asians. South Asians had an increased risk of death observed for coronary heart disease only in individuals with a body mass index greater than 35 (hazard ratio 1.90, 95% confidence interval 1.15 to 3.12). Conclusions Body mass index shows a U shaped association with death from overall cardiovascular disease among east Asians: increased risk of death from cardiovascular disease is observed at lower and higher ranges of body mass index. A high body mass index is a risk factor for mortality from overall cardiovascular disease and for specific diseases, including coronary heart disease, ischaemic stroke, and haemorrhagic stroke in east Asians. Higher body mass index is a weak risk factor for mortality from cardiovascular disease in south Asians.

Ionizing Radiation and Leukemia Mortality among Japanese Atomic Bomb Survivors, 1950–2000

Abstract This paper provides the first comprehensive report on mortality by type of leukemia among the Japanese atomic bomb survivors in the Life Span Study (LSS). Analyses include 310 deaths due to leukemia during the period 1950–2000 among 86,611 people in the LSS. Poisson regression methods were used to evaluate associations between estimated bone marrow dose and leukemia mortality. Attention was given to variation in the radiation dose–leukemia mortality association by time since exposure, age at exposure, city and sex. The excess relative rate per gray of acute myeloid leukemia was best described by a quadratic dose–response function that peaked approximately 10 years after exposure. Acute lymphatic leukemia and chronic myeloid leukemia mortality were best described by a linear dose–response function that did not vary with time since exposure. Adult T-cell leukemia was not associated with estimated bone marrow dose. Overall, 103 of the 310 observed leukemia deaths were estimated to be excess deaths due to radiation exposure. In the most recent decade of observation (1991–2000), the estimated attributable fraction of leukemia deaths among those survivors exposed to >0.005 Gy was 0.34, suggesting that the effect of the atomic bombings on leukemia mortality has persisted in this cohort for more than five decades.

Impact of smoking on mortality and life expectancy in Japanese smokers: a prospective cohort study

Objective To investigate the impact of smoking on overall mortality and life expectancy in a large Japanese population, including some who smoked throughout adult life. Design The Life Span Study, a population-based prospective study, initiated in 1950. Setting Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan. Participants Smoking status for 27 311 men and 40 662 women was obtained during 1963-92. Mortality from one year after first ascertainment of smoking status until 1 January 2008 has been analysed. Main outcome measures Mortality from all causes in current, former, and never smokers. Results Smokers born in later decades tended to smoke more cigarettes per day than those born earlier, and to have started smoking at a younger age. Among those born during 1920-45 (median 1933) and who started smoking before age 20 years, men smoked on average 23 cigarettes/day, while women smoked 17 cigarettes/day, and, for those who continued smoking, overall mortality was more than doubled in both sexes (rate ratios versus never smokers: men 2.21 (95% confidence interval 1.97 to 2.48), women 2.61 (1.98 to 3.44)) and life expectancy was reduced by almost a decade (8 years for men, 10 years for women). Those who stopped smoking before age 35 avoided almost all of the excess risk among continuing smokers, while those who stopped smoking before age 45 avoided most of it. Conclusions The lower smoking related hazards reported previously in Japan may have been due to earlier birth cohorts starting to smoke when older and smoking fewer cigarettes per day. In Japan, as elsewhere, those who start smoking in early adult life and continue smoking lose on average about a decade of life. Much of the risk can, however, be avoided by giving up smoking before age 35, and preferably well before age 35.

Meat intake and cause-specific mortality: a pooled analysis of Asian prospective cohort studies

BACKGROUND Total or red meat intake has been shown to be associated with a higher risk of mortality in Western populations, but little is known of the risks in Asian populations. OBJECTIVE We examined temporal trends in meat consumption and associations between meat intake and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in Asia. DESIGN We used ecological data from the United Nations to compare country-specific meat consumption. Separately, 8 Asian prospective cohort studies in Bangladesh, China, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan consisting of 112,310 men and 184,411 women were followed for 6.6 to 15.6 y with 24,283 all-cause, 9558 cancer, and 6373 cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths. We estimated the study-specific HRs and 95% CIs by using a Cox regression model and pooled them by using a random-effects model. RESULTS Red meat consumption was substantially lower in the Asian countries than in the United States. Fish and seafood consumption was higher in Japan and Korea than in the United States. Our pooled analysis found no association between intake of total meat (red meat, poultry, and fish/seafood) and risks of all-cause, CVD, or cancer mortality among men and women; HRs (95% CIs) for all-cause mortality from a comparison of the highest with the lowest quartile were 1.02 (0.91, 1.15) in men and 0.93 (0.86, 1.01) in women. CONCLUSIONS Ecological data indicate an increase in meat intake in Asian countries; however, our pooled analysis did not provide evidence of a higher risk of mortality for total meat intake and provided evidence of an inverse association with red meat, poultry, and fish/seafood. Red meat intake was inversely associated with CVD mortality in men and with cancer mortality in women in Asian countries.

Proportional hazards regression in epidemiologic follow-up studies: an intuitive consideration of primary time scale.

In epidemiologic cohort studies of chronic diseases, such as heart disease or cancer, confounding by age can bias the estimated effects of risk factors under study. With Cox proportional-hazards regression modeling in such studies, it would generally be recommended that chronological age be handled nonparametrically as the primary time scale. However, studies involving baseline measurements of biomarkers or other factors frequently use follow-up time since measurement as the primary time scale, with no explicit justification. The effects of age are adjusted for by modeling age at entry as a parametric covariate. Parametric adjustment raises the question of model adequacy, in that it assumes a known functional relationship between age and disease, whereas using age as the primary time scale does not. We illustrate this graphically and show intuitively why the parametric approach to age adjustment using follow-up time as the primary time scale provides a poor approximation to age-specific incidence. Adequate parametric adjustment for age could require extensive modeling, which is wasteful, given the simplicity of using age as the primary time scale. Furthermore, the underlying hazard with follow-up time based on arbitrary timing of study initiation may have no inherent meaning in terms of risk. Given the potential for biased risk estimates, age should be considered as the preferred time scale for proportional-hazards regression with epidemiologic follow-up data when confounding by age is a concern.

Radiation Dose Associated with Renal Failure Mortality: A Potential Pathway to Partially Explain Increased Cardiovascular Disease Mortality Observed after Whole-Body Irradiation

Whole-body and thoracic ionizing radiation exposure are associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. In atomic bomb survivors, radiation dose is also associated with increased hypertension incidence, suggesting that radiation dose may be associated with chronic renal failure (CRF), thus explaining part of the mechanism for increased CVD. Multivariate Poisson regression was used to evaluate the association of radiation dose with various definitions of chronic kidney disease (CKD) mortality in the Life Span Study (LSS) of atomic bomb survivors. A secondary analysis was performed using a subsample for whom self-reported information on hypertension and diabetes, the two biggest risk factors for CRF, had been collected. We found a significant association between radiation dose and only our broadest definition of CRF among the full cohort. A quadratic dose excess relative risk model [ERR/Gy2 = 0.091 (95% CI: 0.05, 0.198)] fit minimally better than a linear model. Within the subsample, association was also observed only with the broadest CRF definition [ERR/Gy2 = 0.15 (95% CI: 0.02, 0.32)]. Adjustment for hypertension and diabetes improved model fit but did not substantially change the ERR/Gy2 estimate, which was 0.17 (95% CI: 0.04, 0.35). We found a significant quadratic dose relationship between radiation dose and possible chronic renal disease mortality that is similar in shape to that observed between radiation and incidence of hypertension in this population. Our results suggest that renal dysfunction could be part of the mechanism causing increased CVD risk after whole-body irradiation, a hypothesis that deserves further study.

Solid Cancer Incidence among the Life Span Study of Atomic Bomb Survivors: 1958-2009

This is the third analysis of solid cancer incidence among the Life Span Study (LSS) cohort of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, adding eleven years of follow-up data since the previously reported analysis. For this analysis, several changes and improvements were implemented, including updated dose estimates (DS02R1) and adjustment for smoking. Here, we focus on all solid cancers in aggregate. The eligible cohort included 105,444 subjects who were alive and had no known history of cancer at the start of follow-up. A total of 80,205 subjects had individual dose estimates and 25,239 were not in either city at the time of the bombings. The follow-up period was 1958–2009, providing 3,079,484 person-years of follow-up. Cases were identified by linkage with population-based Hiroshima and Nagasaki Cancer Registries. Poisson regression methods were used to elucidate the nature of the radiation-associated risks per Gy of weighted absorbed colon dose using both excess relative risk (ERR) and excess absolute risk (EAR) models adjusted for smoking. Risk estimates were reported for a person exposed at age 30 years with attained age of 70 years. In this study, 22,538 incident first primary solid cancer cases were identified, of which 992 were associated with radiation exposure. There were 5,918 cases (26%) that occurred in the 11 years (1999–2009) since the previously reported study. For females, the dose response was consistent with linearity with an estimated ERR of 0.64 per Gy (95% CI: 0.52 to 0.77). For males, significant upward curvature over the full dose range as well as restricted dose ranges was observed and therefore, a linear-quadratic model was used, which resulted in an ERR of 0.20 (95% CI: 0.12 to 0.28) at 1 Gy and an ERR of 0.010 (95% CI: −0.0003 to 0.021) at 0.1 Gy. The shape of the ERR dose response was significantly different among males and females (P = 0.02). While there was a significant decrease in the ERR with increasing attained age, this decrease was more rapid in males compared to females. The lowest dose range that showed a statistically significant dose response using the sex-averaged, linear ERR model was 0–100 mGy (P = 0.038). In conclusion, this analysis demonstrates that solid cancer risks remain elevated more than 60 years after exposure. Sex-averaged upward curvature was observed in the dose response independent of adjustment for smoking. Findings from the current analysis regarding the dose-response shape were not fully consistent with those previously reported, raising unresolved questions. At this time, uncertainties in the shape of the dose response preclude definitive conclusions to confidently guide radiation protection policies. Upcoming results from a series of analyses focusing on the radiation risks for specific organs or organ families, as well as continued follow-up are needed to fully understand the nature of radiation-related cancer risk and its public health significance. Data and analysis scripts are available for download at: http://www.rerf.or.jp.

Body mass, tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking and risk of cancer of the small intestine—a pooled analysis of over 500 000 subjects in the Asia Cohort Consortium

BACKGROUND The evidence for a role of tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, and body mass index (BMI) in the etiology of small intestine cancer is based mainly on case-control studies from Europe and United States. SUBJECTS AND METHODS We harmonized the data across 12 cohort studies from mainland China, Japan, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan, comprising over 500,000 subjects followed for an average of 10.6 years. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) for BMI and (only among men) tobacco smoking and alcohol drinking. RESULTS A total of 134 incident cases were observed (49 adenocarcinoma, 11 carcinoid, 46 other histologic types, and 28 of unknown histology). There was a statistically non-significant trend toward increased HR in subjects with high BMI [HR for BMI>27.5 kg/m2, compared with 22.6-25.0, 1.50; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.76-2.96]. No association was suggested for tobacco smoking; men drinking>400 g of ethanol per week had an HR of 1.57 (95% CI 0.66-3.70), compared with abstainers. CONCLUSIONS Our study supports the hypothesis that elevated BMI may be a risk factor for small intestine cancer. An etiologic role of alcohol drinking was suggested. Our results reinforce the existing evidence that the epidemiology of small intestine cancer resembles that of colorectal cancer.