G. Kiesewetter

The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: from 25 years of inaction to a global transformation for public health

The Lancet Countdown tracks progress on health and climate change and provides an independent assessment of the health effects of climate change, the implementation of the Paris Agreement, 1 and th ...

Modelling PM2.5 impact indicators in Europe

Long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has been shown to have significant negative impacts on human health. It is estimated that current levels of air pollution shorten the statistical life expectancy of European citizens by several months. The GAINS integrated assessment model calculates shortening of life expectancy from population exposure to PM2.5 using epidemiologically-derived health impact functions. In addition, GAINS estimates PM2.5 concentrations at 1875 air quality monitoring stations located in diverse environments ranging from remote background locations to busy street canyons. In this article, different approaches to dealing with the PM2.5 pollution problem are compared. We assess for the present and future the attainment of EU and WHO air quality standards for PM2.5 and estimate the loss of life expectancy under different policy scenarios developed for the ongoing revision of the EU Air Quality Legislation. We present PM2.5 forecasts for 1875 individual air quality monitoring stations in Europe.Calculations bridge the gap between regional background and street canyons.Compliance with the EU limit value is achieved easily, but not with the WHO guideline.We quantify EU wide health benefits of future emission control legislation scenarios.We analyse the relationship between compliance and population exposure.

Mitigating ammonia emission from agriculture reduces PM2.5 pollution in the Hai River Basin in China

The Hai River Basin (HRB), one of the most populated areas in China, is experiencing high NH3 emissions, mostly from agricultural sources, and suffering from strongly enhanced PM2.5 concentrations in all urban areas. Further population growth and urbanization projected until 2030 may exacerbate this situation. Here, the NUFER (NUtrient flows in Food chains, Environment and Resources use) and GAINS (Greenhouse gas - Air pollution Interactions and Synergies) models have been coupled for the first time to understand possible changes of agricultural NH3 emission between 2012 and 2030 and their impacts on ambient PM2.5 concentrations, and to explore options to improve this situation. Results show that agricultural ammonia emissions in the HRB were 1179kt NH3 in 2012, 45% of which was from the hotspots at or near conurbation areas, including Beijing-Tianjin, Tangshan-Qinhuangdao, Shijiazhuang-Baoding, Dezhou, Handan-Liaocheng, and Xinxiang. Without intervention, agricultural ammonia emissions will further increase by 33% by 2030. The impacts of several scenarios were tested with respect to air pollution. Compared to the business-as-usual scenario, a scenario of improved technology and management combined with human diet optimization could greatly reduce emission (by 60%), and lead to 22-43% and 9-24% decrease of the secondary inorganic aerosols and PM2.5 concentrations, respectively, in the hotspots of NH3 emissions. Our results further confirmed that ammonia control is needed for air pollution abatement strategies (SO2, NOx and primary PM reduction) to be effective in terms of PM2.5.