Gerald Segal

Calculation of Infrared Intensities by the CNDO Method

The CNDO method, an approximate self‐consistent molecular‐orbital theory, has been applied to the calculation of dipole‐moment derivatives Mj=(∂μ/∂Sj), where μ is the molecular dipole moment and Sj an appropriate symmetry coordinate. The theory is reasonably successful in calculating both the magnitudes and the signs of Mj for molecules composed of first‐row elements and/or hydrogen. The calculations can be understood on the basis of familiar ideas about the changes in atomic hydridization on the bending or stretching of bonds.

Thinking strategically about ASEM: The subsidiarity question

Abstract Aficionados of arcane European Union politics will know the importance of the term ‘subsidiarity’, for it relates to perhaps the most fundamental question facing any federal enterprise. Subsidiarity is supposed to be simple ‐ the notion that issues should be handled at the most effective level of authority ‐ but the devil is in the debate about what is ‘most effective’. The notion of subsidiarity, in all its complexity, is in fact most appropriate for those considering the shape of the agenda for the next Asia‐Europe Meeting (ASEM) in London in 1998. With the proliferation of meetings and organizations devoted to the next ASEM agenda, the time has come to pose and begin to answer the subsidiarity question. That question for ASEM would ask, ‘what is best done at the ASEM level’, as opposed to at a global, other regional, national, or even corporate, local or individual level? If officials and analysts feel that such a question is too tough for the ASEM process, perhaps they would be happier with a...

China's Changing Shape

At the very moment when China seems poised to regain its former power, doubts are growing about precisely what China is. Chinas economy appears set to become the worlds largest, by some measures as early as 2002. Beijing has spurred this economic growth by abandoning Marxism and allowing Chinas various regions remarkable independence. The risks of such a strategy raise enor mous questions about Chinas future. As the last of the communist old guard acquiesces in the move from Mao and Marx to market eco nomics, China may be changing not only face but also shape. This basic question over Chinas future revolves around the degree to which Beijings authority will give way to the centrifugal pull of Chinas increasingly dynamic periphery. The death of old ideologies has left Chinese nationalism as the obvious, if uncertain, organizing principle for Beijings domestic and foreign policies. Will Chinas fate be dominated by its unsatisfied nationalism, or will it be moder ated?even wrecked?by the fissiparous tendencies of Beijings con tinental empire? The international context surrounding this internal challenge is critical. Never in Chinas history has such a push for decentralization

China and Africa

It is hard to make a case that Africa matters very much to China. The 45-odd countries of the continent constitute roughly a quarter of all U.N. members and something like a half of all developing states, but they count for little in the overall scheme of Chinese foreign policy objectives. To be sure, there have been times when China was less involved with the international community and its rhetorical policy of support for African causes appeared to suggest that Africa was important to China. But especially since the late 1970s, when China sought prosperity through greater integration with the states of the global market economy, the rhetoric about Africa has been shown to be unsupported by real initiative. Yet this is not to suggest that it is pointless to review Chinas African policy, for at least a brief survey can help highlight the priorities of Chinese foreign policy and help separate the reality from the sometimes lofty rhetoric.

How insecure is Pacific Asia

This article rejects extreme views on the Pacific Asian security situation that posit either smooth progress towards a prosperous and secure peace or accelerating tensions and arms races. It identifies four key conditions essentialfor the construction of durable regional security: pluralist political systems; growing interdependence; the creation of regional society; and a robust balance of power. None of these conditions is sufficient on its own: the tensions that can arise from economic interdependence and the dangers of the early stages of progress towards a pluralist polity are emphasized. Nevertheless, despite the limited effectiveness hitherto offormal pan-regional security organizations, there are positive signs of an emerging regional balance of power.

Northeast Asia: Common Security or 'A La Carte'?

Gerald Segal surveys the regional balances of power and interest in North-East Asia and sees it as a zone with no shared security interests and old hostilities intact-a zone in search of a regional identity. How to construct this? He reports on a recent Canadian initiative, but also, in case a common security approach is unsuccessful, outlines the possibilities for a more flexible, a la carte approach to the highest-risk security issues.

The Soviet Union and the Pacific

The Soviet Pacific setting the historical background ideology and culture military issues the economic dimension looking forward.

Calculation of the Magnetic Rotation Spectrum of NO in the Near Infrared

The magnetic rotation spectrum for the 3–0 vibration band of NO has been calculated and is compared to the spectra observed by Mann and Hause. With one exception, agreement with experiment is satisfactory.

Taking India seriously

It is time that India was taken more seriously in international affairs. Its economic reforms since 1991 have been cautious and limited, but they hold considerable promise for making India a more formidable partner and market. The reforms are also politically sustainable because they are gradual. India possesses a wealth of skilled political operatives who can sustain democratic processes amid economic reform and social tension. The net effect of its unparalleled social heterogeneity is to prevent conflict from becoming dangerously polarised. The pragmatism which is evident in the reforms has also begun to reshape Indias approach to the wider world. Many painful dilemmas remain to be faced, but the outlook is encouraging.

Why Communist Armies Defend Their Parties

In 1989 in China, the army hesitated but then followed orders. In the same year in Romania, the army at first followed orders and then turned their guns on the Communist Party leadership. In the GDR, the army contemplated action but balked at the brink. In Georgia and Azerbaijan, the Soviet Army used, respectively, tear gas and sharpened shovels, and bullets in defense of parts of the party and state. The contrasts between East Asia and East Europe are not only striking, they are also vital to whether communists remain in power. If their armies will not defend the parties, then the outcome when the people turn against the party must be revolutionary change. Explaining the contrasts in the behavior of communist armies requires a complex analysis of party and army and the relationship between them.1 Many of the challenges that faced these parties and armies were also part of broader social changes that could not be solved by an improvement in civil-military relations. In the analysis that follows, we attempt to identify the major reasons why some armies defended their parties and others did not. This task is not merely an exercise in contemporary history, for the