Håkan Grudd

New ice core evidence for a volcanic cause of the A.D. 536 dust veil

In New Zealand human cryptosporidiosis demonstrates spring and autumn peaks of incidence with the spring peak being three times greater in magnitude than the autumn peak. The imbalance between the two peaks is notable, and may be associated with the high livestock density in New Zealand. In the summer and autumn the cryptosporidiosis rate was positively associated with temperatures in the current and previous month, highlighting the importance of outdoor recreation to transmission. No associations between spring incidence and weather were found providing little support for the importance of drinking-water pathways. Imported travel cases do not appear to be an important factor in the aetiology of cryptosporidiosis in New Zealand.

Spatial variability and temporal trends in water‐use efficiency of European forests

The increasing carbon dioxide (CO2 ) concentration in the atmosphere in combination with climatic changes throughout the last century are likely to have had a profound effect on the physiology of trees: altering the carbon and water fluxes passing through the stomatal pores. However, the magnitude and spatial patterns of such changes in natural forests remain highly uncertain. Here, stable carbon isotope ratios from a network of 35 tree-ring sites located across Europe are investigated to determine the intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE), the ratio of photosynthesis to stomatal conductance from 1901 to 2000. The results were compared with simulations of a dynamic vegetation model (LPX-Bern 1.0) that integrates numerous ecosystem and land-atmosphere exchange processes in a theoretical framework. The spatial pattern of tree-ring derived iWUE of the investigated coniferous and deciduous species and the model results agreed significantly with a clear south-to-north gradient, as well as a general increase in iWUE over the 20th century. The magnitude of the iWUE increase was not spatially uniform, with the strongest increase observed and modelled for temperate forests in Central Europe, a region where summer soil-water availability decreased over the last century. We were able to demonstrate that the combined effects of increasing CO2 and climate change leading to soil drying have resulted in an accelerated increase in iWUE. These findings will help to reduce uncertainties in the land surface schemes of global climate models, where vegetation-climate feedbacks are currently still poorly constrained by observational data.

A 1200-year multiproxy record of tree growth and summer temperature at the northern pine forest limit of Europe

Combining nine tree growth proxies from four sites, from the west coast of Norway to the Kola Peninsula of NW Russia, provides a well replicated (> 100 annual measurements per year) mean index of tree growth over the last 1200 years that represents the growth of much of the northern pine timberline forests of northern Fennoscandia. The simple mean of the nine series, z-scored over their common period, correlates strongly with mean June to August temperature averaged over this region (r = 0.81), allowing reconstructions of summer temperature based on regression and variance scaling. The reconstructions correlate significantly with gridded summer temperatures across the whole of Fennoscandia, extending north across Svalbard and south into Denmark. Uncertainty in the reconstructions is estimated by combining the uncertainty in mean tree growth with the uncertainty in the regression models. Over the last seven centuries the uncertainty is < 4.5% higher than in the 20th century, and reaches a maximum of 12% above recent levels during the 10th century. The results suggest that the 20th century was the warmest of the last 1200 years, but that it was not significantly different from the 11th century. The coldest century was the 17th. The impact of volcanic eruptions is clear, and a delayed recovery from pairs or multiple eruptions suggests the presence of some positive feedback mechanism. There is no clear and consistent link between northern Fennoscandian summer temperatures and solar forcing.

Cloud response to summer temperatures in Fennoscandia over the last thousand years

Cloud cover is one of the most important factors controlling the radiation balance of the Earth. The response of cloud cover to increasing global temperatures represents the largest uncertainty in ...

Potential bias in ‘updating’ tree-ring chronologies using regional curve standardisation: Re-processing 1500 years of Torneträsk density and ring-width data:

We describe the analysis of existing and new maximum-latewood-density (MXD) and tree-ring width (TRW) data from the Torneträsk region of northern Sweden and the construction of 1500 year chronologies. Some previous work found that MXD and TRW chronologies from Torneträsk were inconsistent over the most recent 200 years, even though they both reflect predominantly summer temperature influences on tree growth. We show that this was partly a result of systematic bias in MXD data measurements and partly a result of inhomogeneous sample selection from living trees (modern sample bias). We use refinements of the simple Regional Curve Standardisation (RCS) method of chronology construction to identify and mitigate these biases. The new MXD and TRW chronologies now present a largely consistent picture of long-timescale changes in past summer temperature in this region over their full length, indicating similar levels of summer warmth in the medieval period (MWP, c. ce 900–1100) and the latter half of the 20th century. Future work involving the updating of MXD chronologies using differently sourced measurements may require similar analysis and appropriate adjustment to that described here to make the data suitable for the production of un-biased RCS chronologies. The use of ‘growth-rate’ based multiple RCS curves is recommended to identify and mitigate the problem of ‘modern sample bias’.

Blue intensity in Pinus sylvestris tree-rings: developing a new palaeoclimate proxy

Minimum blue intensity measurements of resin-extracted Pinus sylvestris (L.) samples, conducted using a flat-bed scanner and commercially available software, are shown to provide a robust and reliable surrogate for maximum latewood density. Blue intensity data from 15 trees, from three stands, are reported relative to a standard blue-scale in a manner similar to grey-scale calibration in x-ray densitometry. The resulting time series are highly correlated with x-ray densitometry data generated from the same samples and preserve the same high level of signal strength. Sensitivity to summer climate variables is similar to that identified in the relative density record, demonstrating that minimum blue intensity can also be used for the study of climate change. While not a replacement for the powerful range of x-ray densitometry techniques, blue intensity provides an inexpensive and accessible alternative for accessing palaeoclimatic information.

Fifty years of mass balance and glacier front observations at the Tarfala Research Station

In 1945 Storglaciaren located in the Kebnekaise massif, northern Sweden, was selected for a long term study of the climatic impact on glaciers and an annual mass balance programme was initiated. Si...

Swedish tree rings provide new evidence in support of a major, widespread environmental disruption in 1628 BC

Swedish tree rings provide new evidence in support of a major, widespread environmental disruption in 1628 BC

BLUE INTENSITY IN PINUS SYLVESTRIS TREE RINGS : A MANUAL FOR A NEW PALAEOCLIMATE PROXY

Abstract Minimum blue intensity is a reflected light imaging technique that provides an inexpensive, robust and reliable surrogate for maximum latewood density. In this application it was found that temperature reconstructions from resin-extracted samples of Pinus sylvestris (L.) from Fennoscandia provide results equivalent to conventional x-ray densitometry. This paper describes the implementation of the blue intensity method using commercially available software and a flat-bed scanner. A calibration procedure is presented that permits results obtained by different laboratories, or using different scanners, to be compared. In addition, the use of carefully prepared and chemically treated 10-mm-diameter cores are explored; suggesting that it may not be necessary to produce thin laths with the rings aligned exactly perpendicular to the measurement surface.

Applied Dendroecology and Environmental Forensics. Characterizing and Age Dating Environmental Releases: Fundamentals and Case Studies

Dendroecology, or the use of ring patterns to assess the age of trees and environmental factors controlling their growth, is a well-developed method in climatologic studies. This method holds great potential as a forensic tool for age dating, contamination assessment, and characterization of releases. Moreover, the method is independent of the physical presence of contamination at the time of sampling because it is focused on the effect rather than the cause. This review is one of the very few articles published to date exploring the forensic applicability of dendroecology. This article is organized in two parts: Part I describes the method principles and proposes a practical procedure for forensic applications; Part II exemplifies and validates the method through six case studies of successful forensic application (related to petroleum products and chlorinated solvent spills).