Harry M. Cullings

Effect of Recent Changes in Atomic Bomb Survivor Dosimetry on Cancer Mortality Risk Estimates

Abstract Preston, D. L., Pierce, D. A., Shimizu, Y., Cullings, H. M., Fujita, S., Funamoto, S. and Kodama, K. Effect of Recent Changes in Atomic Bomb Survivor Dosimetry on Cancer Mortality Risk Estimates. Radiat. Res. 162, 377–389 (2004). The Radiation Effects Research Foundation has recently implemented a new dosimetry system, DS02, to replace the previous system, DS86. This paper assesses the effect of the change on risk estimates for radiation-related solid cancer and leukemia mortality. The changes in dose estimates were smaller than many had anticipated, with the primary systematic change being an increase of about 10% in γ-ray estimates for both cities. In particular, an anticipated large increase of the neutron component in Hiroshima for low-dose survivors did not materialize. However, DS02 improves on DS86 in many details, including the specifics of the radiation released by the bombs and the effects of shielding by structures and terrain. The data used here extend the last reported follow-up for solid cancers by 3 years, with a total of 10,085 deaths, and extends the follow-up for leukemia by 10 years, with a total of 296 deaths. For both solid cancer and leukemia, estimated age–time patterns and sex difference are virtually unchanged by the dosimetry revision. The estimates of solid-cancer radiation risk per sievert and the curvilinear dose response for leukemia are both decreased by about 8% by the dosimetry revision, due to the increase in the γ-ray dose estimates. The apparent shape of the dose response is virtually unchanged by the dosimetry revision, but for solid cancers, the additional 3 years of follow-up has some effect. In particular, there is for the first time a statistically significant upward curvature for solid cancer on the restricted dose range 0–2 Sv. However, the low-dose slope of a linear-quadratic fit to that dose range should probably not be relied on for risk estimation, since that is substantially smaller than the linear slopes on ranges 0–1 Sv, 0–0.5 Sv, and 0– 0.25 Sv. Although it was anticipated that the new dosimetry system might reduce some apparent dose overestimates for Nagasaki factory workers, this did not materialize, and factory workers have significantly lower risk estimates. Whether or not one makes allowance for this, there is no statistically significant city difference in the estimated cancer risk.

Solid Cancer Incidence in Atomic Bomb Survivors Exposed In Utero or as Young Children

BACKGROUND In utero exposure to radiation is known to increase risks of childhood cancers, and childhood exposure is associated with increased risks of adult-onset cancers. However, little is known about whether in utero exposure to radiation increases risks of adult-onset cancers. METHODS Solid cancer incidence rates were examined among survivors of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki who were in utero (n = 2452) or younger than 6 years (n = 15388) at the time of the bombings. Poisson regression was used to estimate and compare the levels and temporal patterns of the radiation-associated excess risks of first primary solid cancers among these survivors at ages 12-55. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS There were 94 eligible cancers in the in utero group and 649 in the early childhood group. The excess relative risk (ERR) increased with dose for both in utero (age 50, ERR = 1.0 per Sv, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.2 to 2.3 per Sv) and early childhood (age 50, ERR = 1.7 per Sv, 95% CI = 1.1 to 2.5 Sv) exposures. The ERR declined (P = .046) with increasing attained age in the combined cohort. Excess absolute rates (EARs) increased markedly with attained age among those exposed in early childhood but exhibited little change in the in utero group. At age 50, the estimated EARs per 10,000 person-years per Sv were 6.8 (95% CI = <0 to 49) for those exposed in utero and 56 (95% CI = 36 to 79) for those exposed as young children. CONCLUSIONS Both the in utero and early childhood groups exhibited statistically significant dose-related increases in incidence rates of solid cancers. The apparent difference in EARs between the two groups suggests that lifetime risks following in utero exposure may be considerably lower than for early childhood exposure, but further follow-up is needed.

Colorectal Cancer With Mutation in BRAF, KRAS, and Wild-Type With Respect to Both Oncogenes Showing Different Patterns of DNA Methylation

PURPOSE BRAF mutations are common in sporadic colorectal cancers (CRCs) with a DNA mismatch repair (MMR) deficiency that results from promoter methylation of hMLH1, whereas KRAS mutations are common in MMR proficient CRCs associated with promoter methylation of MGMT. The aim of this study was to further investigate the link between genetic alterations in the RAS/RAF/ERK pathway and an underlying epigenetic disorder. PATIENTS AND METHODS Activating mutations of BRAF and KRAS were identified and correlated with promoter methylation of 11 loci, including MINT1, MINT2, MINT31, CACNA1G, p16(INK4a), p14(ARF), COX2, DAPK, MGMT, and the two regions in hMLH1 in 468 CRCs and matched normal mucosa. RESULTS BRAF V599E mutations were identified in 21 (9%) of 234 CRCs, and KRAS mutations were identified in 72 (31%) of 234 CRCs. Mutations in BRAF and KRAS were never found in the same tumor. CRCs with BRAF mutations showed high-level promoter methylation in multiple loci, with a mean number of methylated loci of 7.2 (95% CI, 6.6 to 7.9) among 11 loci examined (P < .0001). Tumors with KRAS mutations showed low-level promoter methylation, and CRCs with neither mutation showed a weak association with promoter methylation, with an average number of methylated loci of 1.8 (95% CI, 1.5 to 2.1) and 1.0 (95% CI, 0.79 to 1.3), respectively. CONCLUSION In CRC, the methylation status of multiple promoters can be predicted through knowledge of BRAF and, to a lesser extent, KRAS activating mutations, indicating that these mutations are closely associated with different patterns of DNA hypermethylation. These changes may be important events in colorectal tumorigenesis.

The Incidence of Leukemia, Lymphoma and Multiple Myeloma among Atomic Bomb Survivors: 1950–2001

A marked increase in leukemia risks was the first and most striking late effect of radiation exposure seen among the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bomb survivors. This article presents analyses of radiation effects on leukemia, lymphoma and multiple myeloma incidence in the Life Span Study cohort of atomic bomb survivors updated 14 years since the last comprehensive report on these malignancies. These analyses make use of tumor- and leukemia-registry based incidence data on 113,011 cohort members with 3.6 million person-years of follow-up from late 1950 through the end of 2001. In addition to a detailed analysis of the excess risk for all leukemias other than chronic lymphocytic leukemia or adult T-cell leukemia (neither of which appear to be radiation-related), we present results for the major hematopoietic malignancy types: acute lymphoblastic leukemia, chronic lymphocytic leukemia, acute myeloid leukemia, chronic myeloid leukemia, adult T-cell leukemia, Hodgkin and non-Hodgkin lymphoma and multiple myeloma. Poisson regression methods were used to characterize the shape of the radiation dose-response relationship and, to the extent the data allowed, to investigate variation in the excess risks with gender, attained age, exposure age and time since exposure. In contrast to the previous report that focused on describing excess absolute rates, we considered both excess absolute rate (EAR) and excess relative risk (ERR) models and found that ERR models can often provide equivalent and sometimes more parsimonious descriptions of the excess risk than EAR models. The leukemia results indicated that there was a nonlinear dose response for leukemias other than chronic lymphocytic leukemia or adult T-cell leukemia, which varied markedly with time and age at exposure, with much of the evidence for this nonlinearity arising from the acute myeloid leukemia risks. Although the leukemia excess risks generally declined with attained age or time since exposure, there was evidence that the radiation-associated excess leukemia risks, especially for acute myeloid leukemia, had persisted throughout the follow-up period out to 55 years after the bombings. As in earlier analyses, there was a weak suggestion of a radiation dose response for non-Hodgkin lymphoma among men, with no indication of such an effect among women. There was no evidence of radiation-associated excess risks for either Hodgkin lymphoma or multiple myeloma.

Analysis of Fecal DNA Methylation to Detect Gastrointestinal Neoplasia

BACKGROUND The development of noninvasive screening tests is important to reduce mortality from gastrointestinal neoplasia. We sought to develop such a test by analysis of DNA methylation from exfoliated cancer cells in feces. METHODS We first analyzed methylation of the RASSF2 and SFRP2 gene promoters from 788 primary gastric and colorectal tissue specimens to determine whether methylation patterns could act as stage-dependent biomarkers of gastrointestinal tumorigenesis. Next, we developed a novel strategy that uses single-step modification of DNA with sodium bisulfite and fluorescence polymerase chain reaction methodology to measure aberrant methylation in fecal DNA. Methylation of the RASSF2 and SFRP2 promoters was analyzed in 296 fecal samples obtained from a variety of patients, including 21 with gastric tumors, 152 with colorectal tumors, and 10 with non-neoplastic or inflammatory lesions in the gastrointestinal lumen. RESULTS Analysis of DNA from tissues showed presence of extensive methylation in both gene promoters exclusively in advanced gastric and colorectal tumors. The assay successfully identified one or more methylated markers in fecal DNA from 57.1% of patients with gastric cancer, 75.0% of patients with colorectal cancer, and 44.4% of patients with advanced colorectal adenomas, but only 10.6% of subjects without neoplastic or active diseases (difference, gastric cancer vs undiseased = 46.5%, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 24.6% to 68.4%, P < .001; difference, colorectal cancer vs undiseased = 64.4%, 95% CI = 53.5% to 75.2%, P < .001; difference, colorectal adenoma vs undiseased = 33.8%, 95% CI = 14.2% to 53.4%, P < .001). CONCLUSIONS Methylation of the RASSF2 and SFRP2 promoters in fecal DNA is associated with the presence of gastrointestinal tumors relative to non-neoplastic conditions. Our novel fecal DNA methylation assay provides a possible means to noninvasively screen not only for colorectal tumors but also for gastric tumors.

Oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma may develop within a background of accumulating DNA methylation in normal and dysplastic mucosa

Background: Oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) often arises from preceding dysplastic lesions in the oesophageal epithelium. However, the molecular changes occurring in premalignant lesions are not well understood. An epigenetic change is an example of OSCC that may occur within the epithelium. Aim: To investigate the methylation status of multiple promoters in cancer-derived DNA, as well as in the background epithelium of OSCC, including dysplastic lesions and non-neoplastic mucosa. The normal epithelium from patients without cancer was also examined. The findings were correlated with the mutational status of p53. Patients and methods: 56 patients with advanced OSCC, 21 patients with intraepithelial neoplasia (IEN), 56 patients with a background of non-neoplastic epithelium, adjacent to the OSCC, and 42 normal control epithelia from healthy volunteers were studied. The promoter methylation status of SFRP1, SFRP2, DCC, APC, p16INK4a, p14ARF, MINT1, MINT2, MINT31, CACNA1G, COX2, DAPK, hMLH1 and MGMT was examined by methylation-specific single polymerase chain reaction or combined bisulphite restriction analysis. The mutation of p53 by direct sequencing was assessed. Results: DNA methylation was observed in OSCC and in its background epithelium. The frequency of CpG island methylation increased from a baseline level in the background non-neoplastic epithelium, through IEN, to advanced OSCC. However, mutations in p53 were almost exclusively observed in IEN and OSCC. More extensive DNA methylation was seen in the neoplastic lesions (OSCC or IEN) having a p53 mutation than in those with wild-type p53. Conclusion: DNA methylation is present at low levels in the non-neoplastic oesophageal epithelium and appears to contribute to the progression of the dysplasia–carcinoma sequence in OSCC carcinogenesis.

Long-term radiation-related health effects in a unique human population: lessons learned from the atomic bomb survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

For 63 years scientists in the Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission and its successor, the Radiation Effects Research Foundation, have been assessing the long-term health effects in the survivors of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and in their children. The identification and follow-up of a large population (approximately a total of 200,000, of whom more than 40% are alive today) that includes a broad range of ages and radiation exposure doses, and healthy representatives of both sexes; establishment of well-defined cohorts whose members have been studied longitudinally, including some with biennial health examinations and a high survivor-participation rate; and careful reconstructions of individual radiation doses have resulted in reliable excess relative risk estimates for radiation-related health effects, including cancer and noncancer effects in humans, for the benefit of the survivors and for all humankind. This article reviews those risk estimates and summarizes what has been learned from this historic and unique study.

Proportional hazards regression in epidemiologic follow-up studies: an intuitive consideration of primary time scale.

In epidemiologic cohort studies of chronic diseases, such as heart disease or cancer, confounding by age can bias the estimated effects of risk factors under study. With Cox proportional-hazards regression modeling in such studies, it would generally be recommended that chronological age be handled nonparametrically as the primary time scale. However, studies involving baseline measurements of biomarkers or other factors frequently use follow-up time since measurement as the primary time scale, with no explicit justification. The effects of age are adjusted for by modeling age at entry as a parametric covariate. Parametric adjustment raises the question of model adequacy, in that it assumes a known functional relationship between age and disease, whereas using age as the primary time scale does not. We illustrate this graphically and show intuitively why the parametric approach to age adjustment using follow-up time as the primary time scale provides a poor approximation to age-specific incidence. Adequate parametric adjustment for age could require extensive modeling, which is wasteful, given the simplicity of using age as the primary time scale. Furthermore, the underlying hazard with follow-up time based on arbitrary timing of study initiation may have no inherent meaning in terms of risk. Given the potential for biased risk estimates, age should be considered as the preferred time scale for proportional-hazards regression with epidemiologic follow-up data when confounding by age is a concern.

Low-Positive Antibody Titer against Helicobacter pylori Cytotoxin-Associated Gene A (CagA) May Predict Future Gastric Cancer Better Than Simple Seropositivity against H. pylori CagA or against H. pylori

Background: To investigate the IgG antibody titer against Helicobacter pylori CagA as a risk factor for future noncardia gastric cancer. Methods: A nested case-control study was done in the longitudinal cohort of atomic bomb survivors using stored sera before diagnosis (mean, 2.3 years). Enrolled were 299 cancer cases and 3 controls per case selected from cohort members matched on age, gender, city, and time and type of serum storage and countermatched on radiation dose. Results: H. pylori IgG seropositive with CagA IgG low titer was the strongest risk factor for noncardia gastric cancer [relative risk (RR), 3.9; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 2.1-7.0; P < 0.001], especially for intestinal-type tumor (RR, 9.9, 95% CI, 3.5-27.4; P < 0.001), compared with other risk factors, H. pylori IgG seropositive with CagA IgG negative (RR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.3-3.9; P = 0.0052), H. pylori IgG seropositive with CagA IgG high titer (RR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.3-3.2; P = 0.0022), chronic atrophic gastritis (RR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.8-3.3; P < 0.001), current smoking (RR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.4-3.5; P < 0.001), or radiation dose (RR, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.2-3.1; P = 0.00193). Current smoking showed significantly higher risk for diffuse-type than intestinal-type tumors (P = 0.0372). Radiation risk was significant only for nonsmokers, all noncardia, and diffuse-type gastric cancers. Conclusions: A low CagA IgG titer is a useful biomarker to identify a high-risk group and it also provides a clue to understanding host-pathogen interaction. (Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2007;16(6):1224–8)

Exposure to Ionizing Radiation and Development of Bone Sarcoma: New Insights Based on Atomic-Bomb Survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

BACKGROUND Radiation-induced bone sarcoma has been associated with high doses of ionizing radiation from therapeutic or occupation-related exposures. However, the development of bone sarcoma following exposure to lower doses of ionizing radiation remains speculative. METHODS A cohort analysis based on the Life Span Study (n = 120,321) was performed to assess the development of bone sarcoma in atomic-bomb survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki followed from 1958 to 2001. The excess relative risk per gray of ionizing radiation absorbed by the bone marrow was estimated. Additional subject demographic, survival, and clinical factors were evaluated. RESULTS Nineteen cases of bone sarcoma (in eleven males and eight females) were identified among the 80,181 subjects who met the inclusion criteria, corresponding to an incidence of 0.9 per 100,000 person-years. The mean ages at the time of the bombing and at diagnosis were 32.4 and 61.6 years, respectively. The mean bone marrow dose was 0.43 Gy. Osteosarcoma was the most commonly identified bone sarcoma. The most common bone sarcoma site was the pelvis. The overall unadjusted five-year survival rate was 25%. A dose threshold was found at 0.85 Gy (95% confidence interval, 0.12 to 1.85 Gy), with a linear dose-response association above this threshold. The linear slope equaled an excess relative risk of 7.5 per Gy (95% confidence interval, 1.34 to 23.14 per Gy) in excess of 0.85 Gy. CONCLUSIONS On the basis of what we believe is one of the longest and largest prospective studies assessing the development of bone sarcoma in individuals exposed to ionizing radiation, it appears that the development of radiation-induced bone sarcoma may be associated with exposure to much lower doses of ionizing radiation than have previously been reported. Such new insights may potentially improve bone sarcoma prevention measures and broaden our understanding of the role of ionizing radiation from various sources on the development of malignant tumors. This study stresses the need to become increasingly aware of the various health risks that may be attributable to even low levels of ionizing radiation exposure. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE Prognostic Level I. See Instructions to Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.