Hasibur Rahaman

Is the trend in chlorophyll-a in the Arabian Sea decreasing?

Recent studies of satellite-derived Chlorophyll concentrations (Chl-a) in the western Arabian Sea (AS) have suggested an increasing temporal trend, but the length of the records used have typically been too short to resolve longer-term trends, if any. Our analysis of a long term satellite ocean color data shows a change of trend in the summer chlorophyll for the western AS before and after 2003; Chl-a concentration was indeed increasing till 2003, but appears to be declining since then, indicating a secular multi-year trend in Chl-a variability. However, this trend is not uniform over the entire region. Analysis of wind, sea surface temperature (SST), Sea Level Anomaly (SLA) and thermocline depth, suggests that the declining summer monsoon chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration may be due to increasing SLA in this region. The earlier observed biological changes in the western AS could be an artifact of the change in local winds and ocean dynamics, which may be a part of the natural long-term variability. © 2012. American Geophysical Union.

Impact of an upgraded model in the NCEP Global Ocean Data Assimilation System: The tropical Indian Ocean

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) produces global ocean analysis based on the Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS). This study shows how upgrades to the forward model simulations from MOM4p0d to MOM4p1 impact ocean analyses over the tropical Indian Ocean in GODAS. Three experiments were performed with same atmospheric forcing fields: (i) using MOM4p0d (GODAS_p0), (ii) using MOM4p1 (GODAS_p1), both using observed temperature and synthetic salinity, and (iii) using MOM4p1 (GODAS_p1S) assimilating both observed temperature and observed salinity. Validation with independent observations shows significant improvement of subsurface temperature and salinity in the new analysis using MOM4p1 versus MOM4p0d. There is also improvement in the upper ocean current of the equatorial Indian Ocean. The impact of observed salinity on the upper ocean surface current is marginal, but there is significant improvement in the subsurface current. The seasonal and inter-annual variability of the Wyrtki jet and the equatorial undercurrent is improved in GODAS_p1 versus GODAS_p0. All analyses reproduced the Indian Ocean dipole, with the GODAS_p1S simulated sea surface temperature (SST) the most accurate. The temperature inversion over the north Bay of Bengal (BoB) is reproduced only in GODAS_p1S. The mean sea level over BoB and equatorial Indian Ocean improved in GODAS_p1S as compared with AVISO observation. The combined model upgrade and assimilation of observed salinity led to reduced root-mean-square deviation and higher correlation coefficient values in the sea level anomaly (SLA) when compared with satellite observations.