Horst Sterr

Assessment of Vulnerability and Adaptation to Sea-Level Rise for the Coastal Zone of Germany

Abstract Germanys coast extends over 3700 km on both the North and Baltic Seas and is shared by five coastal states. Major seaport cities, Hamburg and Bremen, form two of these states, whereas rural areas and small and medium-size coastal towns comprise the other three coastal states. Along the coast large low-lying areas are already threatened by recurring storm flood events and erosion. Accelerated sea-level rise therefore exacerbates a high-risk situation. It is estimated that under a 1-m accelerated sea-level rise scenario the recurrence of devastating storm floods that presently have a probability of 1 in 100 will decrease to a 1 in 10 or even 1 in 1 probability. Vulnerability assessments have been carried out in Germany at three scales: (i) the national level, i.e., for all coastal areas lying below 5 m (Baltic Sea Coast) and 10 m (North Sea Coast), (ii) the regional level for the coastal state of Schleswig-Holstein, and (iii) the local level for selected communities within this state. When comparing findings from these analyses, the results show that the economic risks of flooding and erosion are highest when detailed studies covering the full range of infrastructure assets are used. However, the actual risk areas in detailed studies may be more confined when considering local topography and infrastructure such as road dams. Nationally, an accelerated sea-level rise of 1 m would put more than 300,000 people at risk in the coastal cities and communities, and economic values endangered by flooding and erosion would amount to more than 300 billion US

What motivates coastal households to adapt pro-actively to sea-level rise and increasing flood risk?

(based on 1995 values). This is why German coastal states are following a strategy based on hard coastal protection measures against flooding, although authorities realize that maintaining and/or improving these defence structures might become rather costly in the long-term. Although additional investment in flood and erosion protection will be considerable (estimated at more than 500 million US

Monitoring post-tsunami vegetation recovery in Phang-Nga province, Thailand, based on IKONOS imagery and field investigations – a contribution to the analysis of tsunami vulnerability of coastal ecosystems

) this seems manageable for the national and regional economies. On the other hand, hard coastline defence and accelerated sea-level rise will increase “coastal squeeze” on the seaward side, endangering important coastal ecosystems such as tidal flats (Wadden Sea), saltmarshes, and dunes. Currently there is no strategy to remedy this increasing ecological vulnerability.

North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment

Individuals are able to contribute in reducing vulnerability to climate change and extreme events. This study addresses the question of what motivates coastal dwellers to adapt proactively to rising sea-levels and associated flood events. Data were collected through a questionnaire survey that was carried out in Germany and Denmark. Two elements based on variables of the Protection Motivation Theory were constructed, which depict the perceptions of flood risk and household-level adaptation. In addition, individual and residence-related characteristics were included. First, descriptive statistical analysis on adaptation behaviour and the two elements was conducted. Then, multiple regression analysis was applied to determine which variables influence the total number of implemented adaptation measures. Finally, the implementation of single adaptation measures was investigated using binary logistic regression analysis. Results indicate that personal experience is the main explanatory factor for adaptation behaviour while cognitive variables and personal history are also important. The independent variables that we used can, to a large extent, predict the implementation of measures that require small investments in terms of efforts and costs. However, the implementation of high-investment measures cannot be explained based on these variables. Our findings suggest that risk communication in coastal management should also integrate variables related to adaptation behaviour, and further research is needed to better understand the implementation of high-investment adaptation measures.

Tourism and Environmental Quality of the German Baltic Coast: Conflict or Chance?

A major tsunami in December 2004 devastated the coastal ecosystems along the Andaman Sea coast of Thailand. Since intact coastal ecosystems provide many important services for local communities at the Andaman Sea, it is crucial to investigate to what extent (in terms of percentage area and speed) the affected ecosystems were capable of recovering after the tsunami. Field measurements and multi-date IKONOS imagery were used to estimate the recovery and succession patterns of coastal vegetation types in the Phang-Nga province of Thailand, three years after the tsunami. Thus, this study contributes to a holistic understanding of the ecological vulnerability of the coastal area to tsunamis. A zone-based change detection approach is applied by comparing two change detection techniques: the first method involves the calculation of a recovery rate based on multi-temporal TNDVI (transformed normalized difference vegetation index) images (TNDVI approach), whereas the second approach is a combined approach of the change vector analysis (CVA). Although these two methods provide different types of information (quantitative for the TNDVI approach, qualitative for the CVA), they are comparable in terms of results and accuracies. The results reveal that recovery processes vary based on the type of the ecosystem and, furthermore, are strongly influenced by human activities. Grasslands, coconut plantations and the mixed vegetation cover could recover faster than the mangroves and casuarina forests. Among the forest ecosystems, recovery rates of casuarina forests were higher than for mangroves, but the recovery area was smaller. This study also discusses the potential and some limitations and inaccuracies of applying high-resolution optical imagery for assessing vegetation recovery at a local scale.

A typology of household-level adaptation to coastal flooding and its spatio-temporal patterns

This book offers an up-to-date review of our current understanding of climate change in the North Sea and adjacent areas, as well as its impact on ecosystems and socio-economic sectors. It provides a detailed assessment of climate change based on published scientific work compiled by independent international experts from climate-related disciplines such as oceanography, atmospheric sciences, marine and terrestrial ecology, using a regional evaluation and review process similar to that of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It provides a comprehensive overview of all aspects of our changing climate, discussing a wide range of topics including past, current and future climate change, and climate-related changes in marine, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. It also explores the impact of climate change on socio-economic sectors such as fisheries, agriculture, coastal zone management, coastal protection, urban climate, recreation/tourism, offshore activities/energy, and air pollution.

Potential, constrains and solutions for marine aquaculture in Kiel Bay & Fjord

In many coastal resorts along the German Baltic coast, tourism contributes to more than 50% to the public income and is the exclusive economic factor. The Baltic coast along the German federal state of Schleswig-Holstein has been facing a stagnation in tourism for several years. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, on the other hand, shows an ongoing boom. The target of 13 million overnight stays per year along the Baltic coast of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern is expected to be reached soon. However, surveys show that only 17.4% of the tourists mainly spent their holidays in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. Tourists are aware of regions with similar offers and quality. Therefore, competition between resorts and regions along the Baltic coast is increasing.

Introduction to the assessment: Characteristics of the region

The predicted sea-level rise and changes in storm surge regimes are expected to lead to an increasing risk of flooding in coastal regions. Accommodation can be an alternative to protection in many areas, with household-level adaptation potentially constituting an important element of such a strategy, as it can significantly reduce costs. To date, a systematic typology of household-level adaptation to coastal flooding does not exist. In order to bridge this gap, we conducted a series of quantitative surveys in different coastal areas in Denmark, Germany and Argentina. We applied a cluster analysis in order to categorise the adaptive behaviour of coastal households. Coastal households were found to cluster in four groups that we term: the comprehensives, the theoreticians, the minimalists and the structurals. With the exception of households focusing on the implementation of high-effort structural measures, our results show the affiliation to these groups to follow a specific temporal sequence. At the same time, large differences in category affiliation exist between the study areas. Risk communication tools can utilise our typology to selectively target specific types of households or to ensure that the information needs of all groups are addressed.

A GIS-based vulnerability assessment of coastal natural hazards, state of Pará, Brazil

Marine aquaculture is facing a variety of competing uses in densely populated coastal areas such as the coast of Kiel Bay. Thus, a major barrier for extending the marine aquaculture business could be the lack of suitable space for “offshore farming”. Moreover, in public opinion the aquaculture sector is often associated with a negative image derived from environmental concerns. It might therefore be expected that planning aquaculture installations in Kiel Bay & Fjord would face resistance both from other offshore stakeholders and the public. This study therefore addressed the question whether arguments and criteria can be found that may contribute to a greater support and positive image of local aquaculture enterprise, thus fostering political support for this sector as well. Indeed, a widespread regional survey showed less public reservation towards aqua-cultural business in Kiel Fjord than initially expected. However, expanding the entrepreneurship in the regional aqua-cultural sector will only be successful if the installations can avoid a significant deterioration of the water quality in Kiel Fjord, e.g. through excessive emissions of nutrients from net cages. An important step forward toward this goal is the concept of IMTA = Integrated Multi-Trophic Aquaculture. The IMTA concept spatially integrates nutrient emitting installations such as fish net cages with installations of nutrient extracting organisms, e.g. mussels and algae. Based on spatial analyses of marine environmental parameters and through modelling of nutrient mass balances (emitted versus extracted nutrient quantities) possible locations, types and sizes of aquaculture installations can be determined.

Using remote sensing to assess tsunami-induced impacts on coastal forest ecosystems at the Andaman Sea coast of Thailand

This scene-setting chapter provides the basis for the climate change-related assessments presented in later chapters of this book. It opens with an overview of the geography, demography and major human activities of the North Sea and its boundary countries. This is followed by a series of sections describing the geological and climatic evolution of the North Sea basin, the topography and hydrography of the North Sea (i.e. boundary forcing; thermohaline, wind-driven and tidally-driven regimes; and transport processes), and its current atmospheric climate (focussing on circulation, wind, temperature, precipitation, radiation and cloud cover). This physical description is followed by a review of North Sea ecosystems. Marine and coastal ecosystems are addressed in terms of ecological habitats, ecological dynamics, and human-induced stresses representing a threat (i.e. eutrophication, harmful algal blooms, offshore oil and gas, renewable energy, fisheries, contaminants, tourism, ports, non-indigenous species and climate change). Terrestrial coastal range vegetation is addressed in terms of natural vegetation (salt marshes, dunes, moors/bogs, tundra and alpine vegetation, and forests), semi-natural vegetation (heathlands and grasslands), agricultural areas and artificial surfaces.