Ian S. Lustick

Stability in Deeply Divided Societies: Consociationalism versus Control

This paper examines the consociational approach to the study of deeply divided societies and notes its weaknesses. It argues that the absence of a well-developed alternative “control” approach to the explanation of stability in deeply divided societies has resulted in the empirical overextension of consociational models. Control models, focusing on how superordinate groups manipulate subordinate groups rather than on the emergence and functioning of elite cartels, need to be developed—not only for the study of stable, deeply divided societies in which consociational models are inappropriate, but also as a means of eliminating certain theoretical problems that have been raised as criticisms of consociationalism. The paper includes a critical review of the literature that is available to guide study of control in deeply divided societies, and concludes with recommendations for the shape of an analytical framework within systematic comparison.

Secessionism in Multicultural States: Does Sharing Power Prevent or Encourage It?

Institutional frameworks powerfully determine the goals, violence, and trajectories of identitarian movements—including secessionist movements. However, both small-N and large-N researchers disagree on the question of whether “power-sharing” arrangements, instead of repression, are more or less likely to mitigate threats of secessionist mobilizations by disaffected, regionally concentrated minority groups. The PS-I modeling platform was used to create a virtual country “Beita,” containing within it a disaffected, partially controlled, regionally concentrated minority. Drawing on constructivist identity theory to determine behaviors by individual agents in Beita, the most popular theoretical positions on this issue were tested. Data were drawn from batches of hundreds of Beita histories produced under rigorous experimental conditions. The results lend support to sophisticated interpretations of the effects of repression vs. responsive or representative types of power-sharing. Although in the short run repression works to suppress ethnopolitical mobilization, it does not effectively reduce the threat of secession. Power-sharing can be more effective, but it also tends to encourage larger minority identitarian movements.

The Absence of Middle Eastern Great Powers: Political “Backwardness” in Historical Perspective

Propelled by the oil boom of the mid-1970s the Middle East emerged as the worlds fastest growing region. Hopes and expectations were high for Arab political consolidation, economic advancement, and cultural efflorescence. With falling oil prices and a devastating war between Iran and Iraq, these hopes had dimmed somewhat by the early 1980s. In 1985, however, the spectacular image of an Arab great power was still tantalizing. A Pan-Arab state, wrote two experts on the region, would include a total area of 13.7 million square kilometers,second only to the Soviet Union and considerably larger than Europe, Canada, China, or the United States. … By 2000 it would have more people than either of the two superpowers. This state would contain almost two-thirds of the worlds proven oil reserves. It would also have enough capital to finance its own economic and social development. Conceivably, it could feed itself.… Access to a huge market could stimulate rapid industrial growth. Present regional inequalities could ultimately be lessened and the mismatch between labor-surplus and labor-short areas corrected. The aggregate military strength and political influence of this strategically located state would be formidable.… It is easy to comprehend why this dream has long intoxicated Arab nationalists.

Explaining the Variable Utility of Disjointed Incrementalism: Four Propositions

Much of mainstream organization theory has been concerned with the implications for organizational design and policy process of high levels of uncertainty or complexity in task environments. Decentralization, disjointed incrementalist decision strategies, and quasi-market coordinative mechanisms have been advanced as rational responses to the complexity of most problems in the socio-political sphere. This article presents and illustrates four conditions which reduce the relative utility of this approach as a means of coping with uncertainty. The propositions are shown to be implicit in the logic of “muddling through,” and are used to help explain/predict the evolution of relatively centralized and planned organizations in certain types of complex task environments.

Abstractions, Ensembles, and Virtualizations Simplicity and Complexity in Agent-Based Modeling

ions, Ensembles, and Virtualizations Simplicity and Complexity in Agent-Based Modeling Ian S. Lustick and Dan Miodownik The Unique Analytic Leverage of Agent-Based Modeling Models are analytically focused metaphors. For example, “the moon is a ghostly galleon” is a metaphor. Thinking of the moon as if it were a ghostly galleon evokes particular moods and images associated with the moon and not others. Analyzing a polity as an array of competing factions arising from social and economic interests models the polity in a particular and limited way. Portraying a political struggle in exact terms as a game of chicken involves application of a formal model to highlight certain simple, highly abstract, strategic elements in a complex multilevel reality. The distinctive advantage of a formal model is that it can be expressed unambiguously. That is, the model can be written as a computer program (as can any proper algebraic formula) and run successfully without the exercise of human interpretation or discretion. Accordingly, to translate problems of scientific interest into a language a computer can understand is to model them formally. Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) is a computerassisted methodology that allows researchers to design, analyze, and investigate formal models realized as artificial worlds inhabited by agents that interact with each other following prespecified simple rules. Agent-based models vary considerably, but they all consist of arrays of autonomous, myopic units. Whether these units are modeled as states, individuals, corporations, ethnic groups, villages, or kinship groups is up to the experimenter and his or her theoretical domain of interest. Units in an ABM environment seek to adapt to their environment as they see it based on whatever goals they are programmed to pursue. Although individual actions are wholly determined at the micro level, when large numbers of such agents operate by interacting with one another, the macro state of the array as a whole is not predictable (though patterns in multiple “runs” of the array can be). As is the case in the “real” world, the specific trajectory the array will take is an empirical matter. It results from the initial condition of the array, the rules implemented to govern individual behavior of units, the complexly interdependent effects of adaptive behavior by the units, and whatever exogenous perturbations are streamed toward the array by the Comparative Politics January 2009 224 experimenter. Standard procedure is to generate large numbers of trajectories of these virtual worlds by perturbing them randomly or introducing randomized adjustments in initial conditions. By carefully calibrating these experiments, crucial experiments can be designed to bring reliable data into contact with isolated, theoretically informed claims. To the extent that the rules governing agent behavior are derived from clear, corroborated or widely accepted theories, this methodology offers a powerful technique for refining, evaluating, and testing specific theoretical claims. The visual, controlled experimental, and transparent nature of the technique, as well as the ease with which it exports results in tabulated, statistically analyzable form, also supports its use as an idea pump for the development of theory. Traditional formal modeling methods rely on algebraic formulas to translate simple relationships into mathematical expressions. But the limits of algebra prevent such techniques from incorporating many of the things known to be true of most of the worlds social scientists find interesting, including their multidimensionality, the presence of large numbers of interacting and autonomous units, and the predominance of highly irregular but nonrandomized patterns in the distribution of traits or interaction styles. The constraint of algebraic solvability therefore limits the ability of traditional formal modeling methods to capture the richness of interesting and even well-established substantive theories. Reliance only on traditional formal modeling techniques (such as game theory and rational choice) thus often entails ignoring what the modelers actually believe to be true about analytically crucial parts of the world. However, ABM, and the computer-assisted bottom-up simulations it produces, can be designed to capture beliefs about the real world embedded in or expressed by good substantive theories, thereby providing researchers with new opportunities to examine possible and probable outcomes associated with specific theory-based claims. The revolutionary potential of this technique is associated with the fact that very large numbers of alternatively possible “futures” (or “histories”) can be produced by varying initial conditions or a specific parameter setting of interest or by subjecting the theoretically specified model to random perturbations. Because of the automatic operation of the computer, every trajectory produced by a given model is consistent with the assumptions and propositions instantiated in the operating rules of the computer programs. Arising from the specific assumptions of the model, these unique counterfactual outcomes can yield reliable data about the implications of changing assumptions, boundary conditions of claims, sufficient conditions for particular outcomes, and robustness of results. The degree to which that potential is realized is a function of the empirical validity of substantive models and the degree to which these theoretical ideas have been implemented clearly and accurately. No formal tool can substitute for empirical work based on the deep study of a single case, structured comparisons of a small number of cases, and/or the statistical analysis of data in the large N tradition. But formal techniques, and especially computer-assisted ABM simulation, are powerful complements to those techniques. An important attraction of ABM is that it can be used to explore the justification for many claims that ordinarily would be impossible to evaluate, in particular in regard to rare but interesting events. Indeed, computer-assisted ABM is the most effective technique available for conducting Ian S. Lustick and Dan Miodownik 225 very large numbers of complicated but disciplined thought experiments about futures (or pasts) that could occur or could have occurred according to available theories. Careful design of artificial worlds, including exact control of all theoretically significant parameters, allows systematic manipulation of putatively significant independent variables and precise observation of the results. Using standard techniques of controlled experimentation and producing batches of theoretically consistent but unique outcomes, social scientists can expand the realms within which their variable-rich theories encounter numbers of cases much larger than the number of variables contained in the theories. However, the method of computer assisted agent-based modeling also raises new challenges, especially in the realm of research design. As is the case with informal verbal models, there are limits to the amount of complexity it may be useful to include in a study. For example, a researcher studying political participation may well believe that participation is affected by culture, aspirations to move into elite positions, beliefs about the efficacy and responsiveness of government, or alternatives available if participation opportunities are foregone. But the research design adopted will require taking only a strictly limited subset of variables into account. If the researcher were required to specify and integrate the best model he or she considered relevant for political culture, elite recruitment, government responsiveness, or exit opportunities, the complexity of the task would paralyze the project. No form of modeling should hold out as its goal the complete theoretical specification of all relevant variables and constants. On the other hand, for many problems the availability of computer-assisted simulations allows researchers not to settle for radically stylized models with key parameter values stipulated purely for analytic convenience. Computer assisted ABM can be used to integrate multiple theoretical modules, thereby leveraging the considerable knowledge available. This capability represents an enormous opportunity, but also a challenge as unfamiliar to formal modelers wedded to algebraic solvability as it is familiar to most other researchers—the problem of balancing parsimony with verisimilitude. A model that includes too many interacting modules explosively increases both the internal complexity of the model and the size of the space of possible outcomes. This sacrifice of parsimony can interfere with both confidence in theoretical operationalizations and in the interpretation of experimental results. Typically, the question of how much complexity to include in the design of a game theoretic or rational choice model is solved by the radical simplicity enforced on problem definition, dimensionality, and other features by the need for algebraic tractability. The claim or hope is then offered, implicitly or explicitly, that the solution of the game applies equally to more complex settings. However, once the move is made to computational modeling, the “algebraic tractability” constraint vanishes. The research design options open to ABM modelers are even richer thanks to the availability of cheap computer power and modeling platforms that do not require computer programming skills. The wider horizons for formal modeling opened up by ABM make the problem of research design both more important and more difficult. ABM researchers are forced to decide whether, for a particular project, the formal model to be built should be simple, complex. This article aims to help researchers cope with this problem. After consideration Comparative Politics January 2009 226 of the turn toward ABM taken by many political scientists, a typology of th

Taking Evolution Seriously: Historical Institutionalism and Evolutionary Theory

Social science in general and political science in particular have been resistant to the mobilization of evolutionary and specifically Darwinian ideas for analytic and explanatory purposes. This paper documents a disconnect between political scientists and standard evolutionary theory. Historical institutionalism is identified as a subfield particularly well-suited, but presently ill-equipped, to benefit from evolutionary thinking. Key concepts in evolutionary theory are then used to interpret work by prominent historical institutionalists, illustrate the under-theorized state of historical institutionalism, and suggest the potential of evolutionary theory to greatly enhance the depth, range, and power of that approach. Illustrations are drawn from studies by a range of researchers, including Gellner, Thelen, Ertman, Gottshalk, Anthony Marx, and Katznelson.

Israeli state-building in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip: theory and practice

The most significant political division within Israel since 1967 has beenbetween those Israelis who favor the permanent incorporation of the portions of Eretz Yisrael (The Land of Israel) captured in the Six Day War and those Israelis who favor relinquishing most or all of the West Bank and Gaza Strip in return for a peace agreement with the Arab world and resolution of the Palestinian problem. Although usually considered an issue of security, ideology, or diplomacy, the uncertain disposition of the West Bank and Gaza Strip can usefully be analyzed as a state-building problem.

The institutionalization of identity: Micro adaptation, macro effects, and collective consequences

Constructivist approaches to the emergence and stability of collective identities are now widely accepted. But few of the assumptions of constructivist theory regarding repertoires of identities and their mutability in response to changing circumstances have been examined or even articulated. The article shows how different conditions of a fluid and changing environment affect the stabilization or institutionalization of an identity as dominant within a polity. We used the Agent-Based Identity-Repertoire (ABIR) model as a simulation tool and confined our attention to relatively simple identity situations. Strong evidence was found for the emergence of identity institutionalization, the existence of a “crystallization” threshold, the effectiveness of divide-and-rule strategies for the maintenance of an identity as dominant, the efficacy of a network of organic intellectuals, and hegemonic levels of institutionalization. Thresholds leading to hegemony were not observed. Preliminary results from experiments examining more complex identity situations have been corroborative.

From Theory to Simulation:The Dynamic Political Hierarchy in Country Virtualization Models

This article suggests that computer-assisted agent-based modelling has the ability to move beyond abstract representations of political problems to theoretically sound virtualisations of real-world polities capable of producing probabilistic forecasts from distributions of stochastically perturbed model trajectories. In contrast to statistical approaches, this technique encompasses both prediction and explanation, with every distinctive trajectory traceable backwards from the occurrence or non-occurrence of an event of interest through the branching points and mechanisms that led to it. In this article, we illustrate our technique for building a country-scale model from corroborated theories, focusing on the ‘dynamic political hierarchy’ module that integrates theories of cross-cutting cleavages, nested institutions and dynamic loyalties. We present our forecasts for significant political events in Thailand for the year August 2010–July 2011. Drawing on this case we demonstrate how the challenges of internal validity can be met in complex formal models and conclude by emphasising the importance of advances in visualisation techniques for parsing large amounts of interrelated time-series data.

Yerushalayim, al-Quds and the Wizard of Oz: Facing the Problem of Jerusalem after Camp David II and the al-Aqsa Intifada

In the famous American movie “The Wizard of Oz,” Dorothy, her three companions, and her dog, brave innumerable dangers to petition the Wizard — the Wizard of Oz — for his help. But although they have believed with full faith in the Wizard’s omniscience and omnipotence, in the movie’s climax they learn the truth. Dorothy’s dog Toto pulls a curtain away from a booth to reveal an old man working controls and shouting into a microphone. The old man is using smoke and mirrors to create an awesome image of “the great and powerful Oz.” The truth, that the wizard is no Wizard, but rather a clever, but weak and desperate man, and that their elaborate beliefs about the Wizard are nothing but fantasy, shocks Dorothy and her friends. But once the facade of majesty and mystery has been stripped away, they quickly learn that this normal man can actually give them each just exactly what they need — the self-confidence to make practical decisions for themselves and to use the real resources they have to accomplish their goals. The story of Dorothy and the Wizard is the story of reality emerging from behind a sound-and-light show. Considering that nothing has been so emblematic of official Israeli policies towards Yerushalayim as the Hollywoodstyle sound-and-light show displayed on “King David’s Tower” — a tower, next to the Jaffa Gate, which of course was never King David’s at all — we can see that the story of Dorothy and the Wizard is also very much the story of what has happened to the question of Yerushalayim and al-Quds.