Iselin Medhaug

Reconciling controversies about the ‘global warming hiatus’

Between about 1998 and 2012, a time that coincided with political negotiations for preventing climate change, the surface of Earth seemed hardly to warm. This phenomenon, often termed the ‘global warming hiatus’, caused doubt in the public mind about how well anthropogenic climate change and natural variability are understood. Here we show that apparently contradictory conclusions stem from different definitions of ‘hiatus’ and from different datasets. A combination of changes in forcing, uptake of heat by the oceans, natural variability and incomplete observational coverage reconciles models and data. Combined with stronger recent warming trends in newer datasets, we are now more confident than ever that human influence is dominant in long-term warming.

Arctic/Atlantic Exchanges via the Subpolar Gyre*

In the present study the decadal variability in the strength and shape of the subpolar gyre (SPG) in a 600-yr preindustrial simulation using the Bergen Climate Model is investigated. The atmospheric influence on the SPG strength is reflected in the variability of Labrador Sea Water (LSW), which is largely controlled by the North Atlantic Oscillation, the first mode of the North Atlantic atmospheric variability. A combination of the amount of LSW, the overflows from the Nordic seas, and the second mode of atmospheric variability, the East Atlantic Pattern, explains 44% of the modeled decadal variability in the SPG strength. A prior increase in these components leads to an intensified SPG in the western subpolar region. Typically, an increase of one standard deviation (std dev) of the total overflow (1 std dev 5 0.2 Sv; 1 Sv [ 10 6 m 3 s 21 ) corresponds to an intensificationofaboutone-halfstddevoftheSPGstrength(1stddev 52 Sv).Asimilarresponseisfoundfor an increase of one std dev in the amount of LSW, and simultaneously the strength of the North Atlantic Current increases by one-half std dev (1 std dev 5 0.9 Sv).

UV radiation and skin cancer in Norway

A distinct increase in skin cancer incidences is observed since the registration started in Norway in the 1950s. As UV radiation is assumed to be the main risk factor for skin cancer, hourly values of the UV irradiance were reconstructed for the period 1957-2005 for 17 of the Norwegian counties (58-70 degrees N). For reconstruction, a radiation transfer model is run with total ozone amount and cloud information as meteorological input. Reconstructed hourly erythemally weighted UV irradiances for about 5 years are compared to measurements at four stations, two stations representing the north-south extension of Norway, and two stations at about 60 degrees N representing the eastern inland - Western coastal contrasts. The agreement between reconstructed and measured UV varies between 0% for the northernmost site to 10-15% overestimation for the other locations. For clear sky, a reasonable agreement between reconstructed and measured data was found for all stations, while for overcast, an overestimation of 10-20% was found for all but the northernmost station. Both the cancer incidences and the reconstructed UV values have a distinct north-south increase. The UV increase towards south is mostly due to increasing solar elevation. The west to east increase is much smaller, and differences in UV are due to differences in both cloud optical thickness and total cloud amount. One additional outcome from this work is that long-term UV-data are reconstructed for Norway, data that can be used in further biological and medical studies related to UV effects.

Contribution of Atlantic and Pacific Multidecadal Variability to Twentieth Century Temperature Changes

AbstractRecent studies have suggested that significant parts of the observed warming in the early and the late twentieth century were caused by multidecadal internal variability centered in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Here, a novel approach is used that searches for segments of unforced preindustrial control simulations from global climate models that best match the observed Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal variability (AMV and PMV, respectively). In this way, estimates of the influence of AMV and PMV on global temperature that are consistent both spatially and across variables are made. Combined Atlantic and Pacific internal variability impacts the global surface temperatures by up to 0.15°C from peak-to-peak on multidecadal time scales. Internal variability contributed to the warming between the 1920s and 1940s, the subsequent cooling period, and the warming since then. However, variations in the rate of warming still remain after removing the influence of internal variability associated with AMV ...

Multidecadal Variability in Global Surface Temperatures Related to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

AbstractMultidecadal internal climate variability centered in the North Atlantic is evident in sea surface temperatures and is assumed to be related to variations in the strength of the Atlantic me...