James L. Novak

A goal programming evaluation of fisheries development plans for Sri Lanka's coastal fishing fleet, 1988–1991

Abstract Most fisheries planning targets of the Government of Sri Lanka have been underachieved. The ad hoc nature of selecting targets and resource allocations has been cited as a major reason for this underachievement. The primary reason given for the arbitrary selection of targets is the lack of survey research. Given this constraint, planners must analyze as many different alternative plans as possible and then choose the best one. In addition, goal comparisons often cannot be made using a common unit of measure, for example rupees (Rs.) allocated for subsidy versus hours of training for crew members. To assist planners in analyzing alternative plans, while accounting for sometimes conflicting objectives, goal programming was used to optimize the achievement of Sri Lankas fisheries development targets for the planning period 1988–1991. The plan that most closely achieved planning targets favored a suspension of subsidy programs and the introduction of an 80% loan on boats and engines. The results also showed that a 20% subsidy on inboard and outboard boat hulls and engines, 20% on purchasing engines for non-mechanized traditional boats and 50% on the purchase of non-mechanized traditional boats met or exceeded planned targets.

Attitudes of agribusiness toward microcomputers

Attitudes of agribusiness personnel toward software uses, or intended uses and microcomputer hardware in agribusiness were assessed using survey analysis. Subjective ordinal-attitudinal questions determined the structure of opinions toward microcomputing and how attitudes affect the qualitative demand for hardware and software. Spearmans Statistic tested the correlation between respondent rankings of attitudes. Results imply that future education should emphasize computer technology as a complement to decision making, not as the decision maker itself. Educating users to evaluate software by applying marginal benefit analysis, providing instruction to users in error checking and understanding algorithms, plus educating software developers and vendors on agricultural applications would assist agribusiness.

A Watershed-Level Bioeconomic Analysis of the Value of 6-8 Month Climate Forecasts

We examine the value of climate forecasts to agricultural producers in a small watershed in southeast Alabama. To carry out the analysis, SWAT is used to divide the Kelly Creek watershed into 77 subwatersheds, according to soil type and topography; then APEX is used to simulate crop yield outcomes for the subwatersheds under a variety of weather scenarios. Finally, an economic profit optimization is developed, from which optimal profits and land uses for given weather are obtained. Values are determined by comparing baseline outcomes to outcomes under various weather outcomes. We find that perfect forecasts would result in per acre values ranging from

Fertilization under Uncertainty: An Analysis Based on Producer Yield Expectations

9-

Information Value of Climate-Based Yield Forecasts in Selecting Optimal Crop Insurance Coverage

183/ac in the study area.