Jennifer C. Pierson

A new framework for selecting environmental surrogates

Surrogate concepts are used in all sub-disciplines of environmental science. However, controversy remains regarding the extent to which surrogates are useful for resolving environmental problems. Here, we argue that conflicts about the utility of surrogates (and the related concepts of indicators and proxies) often reflect context-specific differences in trade-offs between measurement accuracy and practical constraints. By examining different approaches for selecting and applying surrogates, we identify five trade-offs that correspond to key points of contention in the application of surrogates. We then present an 8-step Adaptive Surrogacy Framework that incorporates cross-disciplinary perspectives from a wide spectrum of the environmental sciences, aiming to unify surrogate concepts across disciplines and applications. Our synthesis of the science of surrogates is intended as a first step towards fully leveraging knowledge accumulated across disciplines, thus consolidating lessons learned so that they may be accessible to all those operating in different fields, yet facing similar hurdles.

Transdisciplinary synthesis for ecosystem science, policy and management: The Australian experience

Mitigating the environmental effects of global population growth, climatic change and increasing socio-ecological complexity is a daunting challenge. To tackle this requires synthesis: the integration of disparate information to generate novel insights from heterogeneous, complex situations where there are diverse perspectives. Since 1995, a structured approach to inter-, multi- and trans-disciplinary(1) collaboration around big science questions has been supported through synthesis centres around the world. These centres are finding an expanding role due to ever-accumulating data and the need for more and better opportunities to develop transdisciplinary and holistic approaches to solve real-world problems. The Australian Centre for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (ACEAS ) has been the pioneering ecosystem science synthesis centre in the Southern Hemisphere. Such centres provide analysis and synthesis opportunities for time-pressed scientists, policy-makers and managers. They provide the scientific and organisational environs for virtual and face-to-face engagement, impetus for integration, data and methodological support, and innovative ways to deliver synthesis products. We detail the contribution, role and value of synthesis using ACEAS to exemplify the capacity for synthesis centres to facilitate trans-organisational, transdisciplinary synthesis. We compare ACEAS to other international synthesis centres, and describe how it facilitated project teams and its objective of linking natural resource science to policy to management. Scientists and managers were brought together to actively collaborate in multi-institutional, cross-sectoral and transdisciplinary research on contemporary ecological problems. The teams analysed, integrated and synthesised existing data to co-develop solution-oriented publications and management recommendations that might otherwise not have been produced. We identify key outcomes of some ACEAS working groups which used synthesis to tackle important ecosystem challenges. We also examine the barriers and enablers to synthesis, so that risks can be minimised and successful outcomes maximised. We argue that synthesis centres have a crucial role in developing, communicating and using synthetic transdisciplinary research.

Incorporating evolutionary processes into population viability models

We examined how ecological and evolutionary (eco-evo) processes in population dynamics could be better integrated into population viability analysis (PVA). Complementary advances in computation and population genomics can be combined into an eco-evo PVA to offer powerful new approaches to understand the influence of evolutionary processes on population persistence. We developed the mechanistic basis of an eco-evo PVA using individual-based models with individual-level genotype tracking and dynamic genotype-phenotype mapping to model emergent population-level effects, such as local adaptation and genetic rescue. We then outline how genomics can allow or improve parameter estimation for PVA models by providing genotypic information at large numbers of loci for neutral and functional genome regions. As climate change and other threatening processes increase in rate and scale, eco-evo PVAs will become essential research tools to evaluate the effects of adaptive potential, evolutionary rescue, and locally adapted traits on persistence.

Fine-scale refuges can buffer demographic and genetic processes against short-term climatic variation and disturbance: a 22-year case study of an arboreal marsupial

Ecological disturbance and climate are key drivers of temporal dynamics in the demography and genetic diversity of natural populations. Microscale refuges are known to buffer species’ persistence against environmental change, but the effects of such refuges on demographic and genetic patterns in response to short‐term environmental variation are poorly understood. We quantified demographic and genetic responses of mountain brushtail possums (Trichosurus cunninghami) to rainfall variability (1992–2013) and to a major wildfire. We hypothesized that there would be underlying differences in demographic and genetic processes between an unburnt mesic refuge and a topographically exposed zone that was burnt in 2009. Fire caused a 2‐year decrease in survival in the burnt zone, but the population grew after the fire due to immigration, leading to increased expected heterozygosity. We documented a fire‐related behavioural shift, where the rate of movement by individuals in the unburnt refuge to the burnt zone decreased after fire. Irrespective of the fire, there were long‐term differences in demographic and genetic parameters between the mesic/unburnt refuge and the nonmesic/burnt zone. Survival was high and unaffected by rainfall in the refuge, but lower and rainfall‐dependent in the nonmesic zone. Net movement of individuals was directional, from the mesic refuge to the nonmesic zone, suggesting fine‐scale source–sink dynamics. There were higher expected heterozygosity (HE) and temporal genetic stability in the refuge, but lower HE and marked temporal genetic structure in the exposed habitat, consistent with reduced generational overlap caused by elevated mortality and immigration. Thus, fine‐scale refuges can mediate the short‐term demographic and genetic effects of climate and ecological disturbance.

Optimal taxonomic groups for biodiversity assessment: a meta-analytic approach

A fundamental decision in biodiversity assessment is the selection of one or more study taxa, a choice that is often made using qualitative criteria such as historical precedent, ease of detection, or available technical or taxonomic expertise. A more robust approach would involve selecting taxa based on the a priori expectation that they will provide the best possible information on unmeasured groups, but data to inform such hypotheses are often lacking. Using a global meta-analysis, we quantified the proportion of variability that each of 12 taxonomic groups (at the Order level or above) explained in the richness or composition of other taxa. We then applied optimization to matrices of pairwise congruency to identify the best set of complementary surrogate groups. We found that no single taxon was an optimal surrogate for both the richness and composition of unmeasured taxa if we used simple methods to aggregate congruence data between studies. In contrast, statistical methods that accounted for well-known drivers of cross-taxon congruence (spatial extent, grain size, and latitude) lead to the prioritization of similar surrogates for both species richness and composition. Advanced statistical methods were also more effective at describing known ecological relationships between taxa than simple methods, and show that congruence is typically highest between taxonomically and functionally dissimilar taxa. Birds and vascular plants were most frequently selected by our algorithm as surrogates for other taxonomic groups, but the extent to which any one taxon was the ‘optimal’ choice of surrogate for other biodiversity was highly context-dependent. In the absence of other information – such as in data-poor areas of the globe, and under limited budgets for monitoring or assessment – ecologists can use our results to assess which taxa are most likely to reflect the distribution of the richness or composition of ‘total’ biodiversity.

Relationship between effective and demographic population size in continuously distributed populations

Genetic monitoring of wild populations can offer insights into demographic and genetic information simultaneously. However, widespread application of genetic monitoring is hindered by large uncertainty in the estimation and interpretation of target metrics such as contemporary effective population size, Ne. We used four long‐term genetic and demographic studies (≥9 years) to evaluate the temporal stability of the relationship between Ne and demographic population size (Nc). These case studies focused on mammals that are continuously distributed, yet dispersal‐limited within the spatial scale of the study. We estimated local, contemporary Ne with single‐sample methods (LDNE, Heterozygosity Excess, and Molecular Ancestry) and demographic abundance with either mark–recapture estimates or catch‐per‐unit effort indices. Estimates of Ne varied widely within each case study suggesting interpretation of estimates is challenging. We found inconsistent correlations and trends both among estimates of Ne and between Ne and Nc suggesting the value of Ne as an indicator of Nc is limited in some cases. In the two case studies with consistent trends between Ne and Nc, FIS was more stable over time and lower, suggesting FIS may be a good indicator that the population was sampled at a spatial scale at which genetic structure is not biasing estimates of Ne. These results suggest that more empirical work on the estimation of Ne in continuous populations is needed to understand the appropriate context to use LDNe as a useful metric in a monitoring programme to detect temporal trends in either Ne or Nc.

Incest versus abstinence: reproductive trade‐offs between mate limitation and progeny fitness in a self‐incompatible invasive plant

Plant mating systems represent an evolutionary and ecological trade-off between reproductive assurance through selfing and maximizing progeny fitness through outbreeding. However, many plants with sporophytic self-incompatibility systems exhibit dominance interactions at the S-locus that allow biparental inbreeding, thereby facilitating mating between individuals that share alleles at the S-locus. We investigated this trade-off by estimating mate availability and biparental inbreeding depression in wild radish from five different populations across Australia. We found dominance interactions among S-alleles increased mate availability relative to estimates based on individuals that did not share S-alleles. Twelve of the sixteen fitness variables were significantly reduced by inbreeding. For all the three life-history phases evaluated, self-fertilized offspring suffered a greater than 50% reduction in fitness, while full-sib and half-sib offspring suffered a less than 50% reduction in fitness. Theory indicates that fitness costs greater than 50% can result in an evolutionary trajectory toward a stable state of self-incompatibility (SI). This study suggests that dominance interactions at the S-locus provide a possible third stable state between SI and SC where biparental inbreeding increases mate availability with relatively minor fitness costs. This strategy allows weeds to establish in new environments while maintaining a functional SI system.

How does a transforming landscape influence bird breeding success

ContextThe conversion of agricultural landscapes to tree plantations is a major form of landscape transformation worldwide, but its effects on biodiversity, particularly key population processes like reproductive success, are poorly understood.ObjectivesWe compared bird breeding success between woodland remnants surrounded by maturing stands of plantation Radiata Pine and a matched set of woodland remnants in semi-cleared grazing land.MethodsOur study was conducted in the Nanangroe region in south-eastern New South Wales, Australia. Using repeated field measurements, we quantified bird breeding success in 23 woodland remnants; 13 surrounded by Radiata Pine plantations and 10 on farms where remnants were surrounded by semi-cleared grazing land. We matched the attributes of native remnant patches between two types of matrix.ResultsWe found that: (1) rates of nesting success of smaller-bodied birds in woodland remnants surrounded by grazing land were significantly higher than in woodland remnants surrounded by pine plantations; and (2) taxa with domed nests were more successful at nesting than species that constructed open cup/bowl nests in woodland remnants within farmlands.ConclusionsOur findings suggest that bird breeding success in remnant woodland patches is significantly diminished as a result of the conversion of semi-cleared grazing land to pine plantations.

The Impacts of Extreme Climatic Events on Wild Plant Populations

Despite growing evidence that species and ecosystems are responding to broad climatic trends globally, relatively little is known about the role that extreme climatic or weather events (ECEs) play in driving population and ecosystem change. The objective of this chapter is to provide an overview of the nature of ECEs and their impacts on the demography of wild plant populations in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. We do this by drawing out some of the main lessons that have been learned from the past and contemporary study of ECEs, focusing primarily on case studies involving Australian vegetation, and then use these to identify potential phytosociological and evolutionary roles of extreme events within the context of anthropogenic climate change. We then discuss the contribution that genomics can make to our understanding of the demographic and evolutionary impact of historical ECEs on plant populations, and propose four key questions that are likely to shape future research in this field.