Jesse V. Johnson

Insights into spatial sensitivities of ice mass response to environmental change from the SeaRISE ice sheet modeling project I: Antarctica

Sophie Nowicki, Robert A. Bindschadler, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andy Aschwanden, Ed Bueler, Hyeungu Choi, Jim Fastook, Glen Granzow, Ralf Greve, Gail Gutowski, Ute Herzfeld, Charles Jackson, Jesse Johnson, Constantine Khroulev, Eric Larour, Anders Levermann, William H. Lipscomb, Maria A. Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Byron R. Parizek, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Diandong Ren, Eric Rignot, Fuyuki Saito, Tatsuru Sato, Hakime Seddik, Helene Seroussi, Kunio Takahashi, Ryan Walker, and Wei Li Wang

Extensive Phylogenetic Analysis of a Soil Bacterial Community Illustrates Extreme Taxon Evenness and the Effects of Amplicon Length, Degree of Coverage, and DNA Fractionation on Classification and Ecological Parameters

ABSTRACT To thoroughly investigate the bacterial community diversity present in a single composite sample from an agricultural soil and to examine potential biases resulting from data acquisition and analytical approaches, we examined the effects of percent G+C DNA fractionation, sequence length, and degree of coverage of bacterial diversity on several commonly used ecological parameters (species estimation, diversity indices, and evenness). We also examined variation in phylogenetic placement based on multiple commonly used approaches (ARB alignments and multiple RDP tools). The results demonstrate that this soil bacterial community is highly diverse, with 1,714 operational taxonomic units demonstrated and 3,555 estimated (based on the Chao1 richness estimation) at 97% sequence similarity using the 16S rRNA gene. The results also demonstrate a fundamental lack of dominance (i.e., a high degree of evenness), with 82% of phylotypes being encountered three times or less. The data also indicate that generally accepted cutoff values for phylum-level taxonomic classification might not be as applicable or as general as previously assumed and that such values likely vary between prokaryotic phyla or groups.

Results From the Ice-Sheet Model Intercomparison Project-Heinrich Event INtercOmparison (ISMIP HEINO)

Results from the Heinrich Event INtercOmparison (HEINO) topic of the Ice-Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP) are presented. ISMIP HEINO was designed to explore internal large- scale ice-sheet instabilities in different contemporary ice-sheet models. These instabilities are of interest because they are a possible cause of Heinrich events. A simplified geometry experiment reproduces the main characteristics of the Laurentide ice sheet, including the sedimented region over Hudson Bay and Hudson Strait. The model experiments include a standard run plus seven variations. Nine dynamic/thermodynamic ice-sheet models were investigated; one of these models contains a combination of the shallow-shelf (SSA) and shallow-ice approximation (SIA), while the remaining eight models are of SIA type only. Seven models, including the SIA-SSA model, exhibit oscillatory surges with a period of ∼1000 years for a broad range of parameters, while two models remain in a permanent state of streaming for most parameter settings. In a number of models, the oscillations disappear for high surface temperatures, strong snowfall and small sediment sliding parameters. In turn, low surface temperatures and low snowfall are favourable for the ice-surge cycles. We conclude that further improvement of ice-sheet models is crucial for adequate, robust simulations of cyclic large-scale instabilities.

Modeling 5 years of subglacial lake activity in the MacAyeal Ice Stream (Antarctica) catchment through assimilation of ICESat laser altimetry

Subglacial lakes beneath Antarcticas fast-moving ice streams are known to undergo ∼1 km 3 volume changes on annual timescales. Focusing on the MacAyeal Ice Stream (MacIS) lake system, we create a simple model for the response of subglacial water distribution to lake discharge events through assimilation of lake volume changes estimated from Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) laser altimetry. We construct a steady-state water transport model in which known subglacial lakes are treated as either sinks or sources depending on the ICESat-derived filling or draining rates. The modeled volume change rates of five large subglacial lakes in the downstream portion of MacIS are shown to be consistent with observed filling rates if the dynamics of all upstream lakes are considered. However, the variable filling rate of the northernmost lake suggests the presence of an undetected lake of similar size upstream. Overall, we show that, for this fast-flowing ice stream, most subglacial lakes receive >90% of their water from distant distributed sources throughout the catchment, and we confirm that water is transported from regions of net basal melt to regions of net basal freezing. Our study provides a geophysically based means of validating subglacial water models in Antarctica and is a potential way to parameterize subglacial lake discharge events in large-scale ice-sheet models where adequate data are available.

Detailed spatially distributed geothermal heat-flow data for modeling of basal temperatures and meltwater production beneath the Fennoscandian ice sheet

Abstract Accurate modeling of ice sheets requires proper information on boundary conditions, including the geothermal heat flow (or heat-flow density (HFD)). Traditionally, one uniform HFD value is adopted for the entire modeled domain. We have calculated a distributed, high-resolution HFD dataset for an approximate core area (Sweden and Finland) of the Scandinavian ice sheet, and imbedded this within lower-resolution data published for surrounding regions. Within the Last Glacial Maximum ice margin, HFD varies with a factor of as much as 2.8 (HFD values ranging between 30 and 83 mWm–2), with an average of 49 mWm–2. This average value is 17% higher than 42 mWm–2, a common uniform value used in ice-sheet modeling studies of Fennoscandia. Using this new distributed dataset on HFD, instead of a traditional uniform value of 42 mWm–2, yields a 1.4 times larger total basal meltwater production for the last glacial cycle. Furthermore, using the new dataset in high-resolution modeling results in increased spatial thermal gradients at the bed. This enhances and introduces new local and regional effects on basal ice temperatures and melt rates. We observed significant strengthening of local ‘ice streaming’, which in one case correlates to an ice-flow event previously interpreted from geomorphology. Regional to local variations in geothermal heat flow need to be considered for proper identification and treatment of thermal and hydraulic bed conditions, most likely also when studying Laurentide, Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.

Toward a new generation of ice sheet models

Large ice sheets, such as those presently covering Greenland and Antarctica, are important in driving changes of global climate and sea level. Yet numerical models developed to predict climate change and ice sheet-driven sea level fluctuations have substantial limitations: Poorly represented physical processes in the ice sheet component likely lead to an underestimation of sea level rise forced by a warming climate. The resultant uncertainty in sea level projections, and the implications for climate policy, have been widely discussed since the publication of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [IPCC, 2007]. The assessment report notes that current models do not include “the full effects of changes in ice sheet flow, because a basis in published literature is lacking.” The report also notes that the understanding of rapid dynamical changes in ice flow “is too limited to assess their likelihood or provide a best estimate or an upper bound for sea level rise.”

Thermal boundary conditions on western Greenland: Observational constraints and impacts on the modeled thermomechanical state

The surface and basal boundary conditions exert an important control on the thermodynamic state of the Greenland Ice Sheet, but their representation in numerical ice sheet models is poorly constrained due to the lack of observations. Here we investigate a land-terminating sector of western Greenland and (1) quantify differences between new observations and commonly used boundary condition data sets and (2) demonstrate the impact of improved boundary conditions on simulated thermodynamics in a higher-order numerical flow model. We constrain near-surface temperature with measurements from two 20 m boreholes in the ablation zone and 10 m firn temperature from the percolation zone. We constrain basal heat flux using in situ measurement in a deep bedrock hole at the study area margin and other existing assessments. To assess boundary condition influences on simulated thermal-mechanical processes, we compare model output to multiple full-thickness temperature profiles collected in the ablation zone. Our observation-constrained basal heat flux is 30 mW m−2 less than commonly used representations. In contrast, measured near-surface temperatures are warmer than common surface temperature data sets by up to 15°C. Application of lower basal heat flux increases a model cold bias compared to the measured temperature profiles and causes frozen basal conditions across the ablation zone. Temperate basal conditions are reestablished by our warmer surface boundary. Warmer surface ice and firn can introduce several times more energy to the modeled ice mass than what is lost at the bed from reduced basal heat flux, indicating that the thermomechanical state of the ice sheet is highly sensitive to near-surface effects.

Sensitivity of the frozen/melted basal boundary to perturbations of basal traction and geothermal heat flux: Isunnguata Sermia, western Greenland

Abstract A full-stress, thermomechanically coupled, numerical model is used to explore the interaction between basal thermal conditions and motion of a terrestrially terminating section of the west Greenland ice sheet. The model domain is a two-dimensional flowline profile extending from the ice divide to the margin. We use data-assimilation techniques based on the adjoint model in order to optimize the basal traction field, minimizing the difference between modeled and observed surface velocities. We monitor the sensitivity of the frozen/melted boundary (FMB) to changes in prescribed geothermal heat flux and sliding speed by applying perturbations to each of these parameters. The FMB shows sensitivity to the prescribed geothermal heat flux below an upper threshold where a maximum portion of the bed is already melted. The position of the FMB is insensitive to perturbations applied to the basal traction field. This insensitivity is due to the short distances over which longitudinal stresses act in an ice sheet.

A Community Ice Sheet Model for Sea Level Prediction: Building a Next-Generation Community Ice Sheet Model; Los Alamos, New Mexico, 18–20 August 2008

Recent observations show that ice sheets can respond to climate change on annual to decadal timescales and that the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets are losing mass at an increasing rate. The current generation of ice sheet models cannot provide credible predictions of ice sheet retreat, as underscored by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Fourth Assessment Report (2007). The IPCC provided neither a best estimate nor an upper bound for 21st-century sea level rise because of uncertainties in the dynamic response of ice sheets. In response to this need, a workshop was held at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The workshop was sponsored by the LANL Institute for Geophysics and Planetary Physics, with additional support from the U.S. Department of Energy and National Science Foundation. The workshops goal was to create a detailed plan (including commitments from individual researchers) for developing, testing, and implementing a Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) to aid in predicting sea level rise. This model will be freely available to the glaciology and climate modeling communities and will be the ice sheet component of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), a major contributor to IPCC assessments.

Ice dynamics preceding catastrophic disintegration of the floating part of Jakobshavn Isbræ, Greenland

A method for providing noninvasive electrical stimulation of a single acupuncture site for treatment of menstrual cramps or treating dysmenorrhea.