Jim T. Smith

Modelling of phosphorus inputs to rivers from diffuse and point sources.

The difference in timing of point and diffuse phosphorus (P) delivery to a river produces clear differences in the P concentration-flow relationship. Point inputs decrease in concentration with increasing river flow, due to dilution of a relatively constant input, whereas diffuse (non-point) load usually increases with river flow. This study developed a simple model, based on this fundamental difference, which allowed point and diffuse inputs to be quantified by modelling their contribution to river P concentration as a power-law function of flow. The relationships between total phosphorus (TP) concentration and river flow were investigated for three contrasting UK river catchments; the Swale (Yorkshire), the Frome (Dorset) and the Avon (Warwickshire). A load apportionment model was fitted to this empirical data to give estimates of point and diffuse load inputs at each monitoring site, at high temporal resolution. The model produced TP source apportionments that were similar to those derived from an export coefficient approach. For many diffuse-dominated sites within this study (with up to 75% of the annual TP load derived from diffuse sources), the model showed that reductions of point inputs would be most effective in order to reduce eutrophication risk, due to point source dominance during the plant and algae growing period. This modelling approach should provide simple, robust and rapid TP source apportionment from most concentration-flow datasets. It does not require GIS, information on land use, catchment size, population or livestock density, and could provide a valuable and versatile tool to catchment managers for determining suitable river mitigation options.

Uptake and elimination of radiocaesium in fish and the "size effect.".

A number of hypotheses have previously been developed concerning the rates of uptake and elimination of radiocaesium (137Cs) in fish. These include the influence of potassium and other water chemical parameters on both uptake and elimination, and the effect of fish size on accumulation. In order to test these hypotheses, we have assembled a data set comprising more than 1,000 measurements of radiocaesium (137Cs) in predatory fish (perch, pike and brown trout) in nine European lakes during the years after Chernobyl. These data have been analysed using simple models for uptake and excretion of 137Cs in fish, showing that: 1. Fish-water concentration factors (CF) were inversely proportional to potassium [K+] concentration of the different lakes, in agreement with previous studies. 2. The uptake rate of 137Cs in fish was negatively correlated with lake [K+], but excretion rate was independent of [K+]. 3. Lower than expected CF values were found in one lake, Iso Valkjärvi, Finland. This is attributed to inhibition of the K+ (and therefore 137Cs) high affinity transport system in aquatic plants and fish by low pH and/or low Ca2+. 4. The inclusion of fish weight as a parameter in our dynamic model significantly improves the ability of the model to fit the observed measurements of 137Cs. 5. The model developed from the above hypotheses was able to fit the data from nine different lakes to within approximately a factor of 3 of the observed values.

Chernobyl's legacy in food and water.

Radiocaesium (137Cs) from the 1986 Chernobyl accident has persisted in freshwater fish in a Scandinavian lake for much longer than was expected1. On the basis of new data generalizing this observation, we propose that the continuing mobility of 137Cs in the environment is due to the so-called fixation process of radiocaesium in the soil tending towards a reversible steady state. Our results enable the contamination of foodstuffs by Chernobyl fallout to be predicted over the coming decades. Restrictions in the United Kingdom, for example, may need to be retained for a further 10-15 years, more than 100 times longer than originally estimated.Radiocaesium (137Cs) from the 1986 Chernobyl accident has persisted in freshwater fish in a Scandinavian lake for much longer than was expected. On the basis of new data generalizing this observation, we propose that the continuing mobility of 137Cs in the environment is due to the so-called ‘fixation’ process of radiocaesium in the soil tending towards a reversible steady state. Our results enable the contamination of foodstuffs by Chernobyl fallout to be predicted over the coming decades. Restrictions in the United Kingdom, for example, may need to be retained for a further 10–15 years — more than 100 times longer than originally estimated.

Pollution: Chernobyl's legacy in food and water

Radiocaesium (137Cs) from the 1986 Chernobyl accident has persisted in freshwater fish in a Scandinavian lake for much longer than was expected1. On the basis of new data generalizing this observation, we propose that the continuing mobility of 137Cs in the environment is due to the so-called fixation process of radiocaesium in the soil tending towards a reversible steady state. Our results enable the contamination of foodstuffs by Chernobyl fallout to be predicted over the coming decades. Restrictions in the United Kingdom, for example, may need to be retained for a further 10-15 years, more than 100 times longer than originally estimated.Radiocaesium (137Cs) from the 1986 Chernobyl accident has persisted in freshwater fish in a Scandinavian lake for much longer than was expected. On the basis of new data generalizing this observation, we propose that the continuing mobility of 137Cs in the environment is due to the so-called ‘fixation’ process of radiocaesium in the soil tending towards a reversible steady state. Our results enable the contamination of foodstuffs by Chernobyl fallout to be predicted over the coming decades. Restrictions in the United Kingdom, for example, may need to be retained for a further 10–15 years — more than 100 times longer than originally estimated.

Radiocaesium concentration factors of Chernobyl contaminated fish: a study of the influence of potassium and blind testing of a previously developed model

The radiocaesium concentration factors (CF) of different fish species in 10 lakes in Russia, Belarus and Ukraine were measured between 6 and 11 yr after the Chernobyl accident. Clear inverse relations were observed between fish CF and lakewater K+ concentration. Perch (a predatory species) had CFs which were two times higher than non-predatory fish. No differences in CFs were observed between different species of non-predatory fish. An empirical model for the prediction of radiocaesium CFs in fish (Rowan & Rasmussen, 1994) was blind-tested against our measurements. The model predictions, based on measurements of K+ and suspended solids concentrations in the lakewater, were in good agreement with measured values. Our observations, however, implied a stronger effect of K+ on CF than that used in the Rowan and Rasmussen (1994) model. Further improvements in models could also be made by accounting for the effect of fish size on CF.

Predicting phosphorus concentrations in British rivers resulting from the introduction of improved phosphorus removal from sewage effluent

Phosphorus (P) concentration and flow data gathered during the 1990s for a range of British rivers were used to determine the relative contributions of point and diffuse inputs to the total P load, using the Load Apportionment Model (LAM). Heavily urbanised catchments were dominated by sewage inputs, but the majority of the study catchments received most of their annual phosphorus load from diffuse sources. Despite this, almost 80% of the study sites were dominated by point source inputs for the majority of the year, particularly during summer periods when eutrophication risk is greatest. This highlights the need to reduce sewage P inputs to improve the ecological status of British rivers. These modelled source apportionment estimates were validated against land-use data and boron load (a chemical marker for sewage). The LAM was applied to river flow data in subsequent years, to give predicted P concentrations (assuming no change in P source inputs), and these estimates were compared with observed concentration data. This showed that there had been significant reductions in P concentration in the River Thames, Aire and Ouse in the period 1999 to 2002, which were attributable to the introduction of P stripping at sewage treatment works (STW). The model was then used to forecast P concentrations resulting from the introduction of P removal at STW to a 2 or 1mgl(-1) consent limit. For the urbanised rivers in this study, the introduction of phosphorus stripping to a 1mgl(-1) consent level at all STW in the catchment would not reduce P concentrations in the rivers to potentially limiting concentrations. Therefore, further sewage P stripping will be required to comply with the Water Framework Directive. Diffuse P inputs may also need to be reduced before some of the highly nutrient-enriched rivers achieve good ecological status.

Changes in water quality of the River Frome (UK) from 1965 to 2009: is phosphorus mitigation finally working?

The water quality of the River Frome, Dorset, southern England, was monitored at weekly intervals from 1965 until 2009. Determinands included phosphorus, nitrogen, silicon, potassium, calcium, sodium, magnesium, pH, alkalinity and temperature. Nitrate-N concentrations increased from an annual average of 2.4 mg l⁻¹ in the mid to late 1960s to 6.0 mg l⁻¹ in 2008-2009, but the rate of increase was beginning to slow. Annual soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) concentrations increased from 101 μg l⁻¹ in the mid 1960s to a maximum of 190 μg l⁻¹ in 1989. In 2002, there was a step reduction in SRP concentration (average=88 μg l⁻¹ in 2002-2005), with further improvement in 2007-2009 (average=49 μg l⁻¹), due to the introduction of phosphorus stripping at sewage treatment works. Phosphorus and nitrate concentrations showed clear annual cycles, related to the timing of inputs from the catchment, and within-stream bioaccumulation and release. Annual depressions in silicon concentration each spring (due to diatom proliferation) reached a maximum between 1980 and 1991, (the period of maximum SRP concentration) indicating that algal biomass had increased within the river. The timing of these silicon depressions was closely related to temperature. Excess carbon dioxide partial pressures (EpCO₂) of 60 times atmospheric CO₂ were also observed through the winter periods from 1980 to 1992, when phosphorus concentration was greatest, indicating very high respiration rates due to microbial decomposition of this enhanced biomass. Declining phosphorus concentrations since 2002 reduced productivity and algal biomass in the summer, and EpCO₂ through the winter, indicating that sewage treatment improvements had improved riverine ecology. Algal blooms were limited by phosphorus, rather than silicon concentration. The value of long-term water quality data sets is discussed. The data from this monitoring programme are made freely available to the wider science community through the CEH data portal (http://gateway.ceh.ac.uk/).

Time-dependent behaviour of radiocaesium: A new method to compare the mobility of weapons test and Chernobyl derived fallout

Abstract Environmental radiocaesium ( 137 Cs ) originates primarily from two sources, atmospheric nuclear weapons testing, and the Chernobyl accident. It has not, to our knowledge, previously been possible statistically to compare changes in the environmental mobility of 137 Cs from these two sources since the weapons test fallout varied in a complex manner over a number of years. A novel technique is presented for curve-fitting measurements with a time-dependent input function such as that for weapons test fallout. Different models were fitted to measurements of both pre- and post-Chernobyl 137 Cs activity concentrations in five major Finnish rivers. It was shown that there was no significant difference in the temporal changes in 137 Cs mobility from these two sources during the years after fallout. Transport parameters derived from weapons test measurements gave good predictions of the long-term contamination of these rivers by Chernobyl fallout. Changes in 137 Cs activity concentrations in rivers after Chernobyl have previously been shown to decline as a result of slow sorption to clay minerals in catchment soils. It is shown that weapons test fallout also exhibited this slow decline over time. Rates of decline in 137 Cs activity concentrations 10 years after fallout correspond to effective ecological half-lives (Teff) in the range 10–30 years. Removal of activity from the catchment was found to have no significant effect on the long-term decline in 137 Cs activity concentrations in these rivers.

Changes in point and diffuse source phosphorus inputs to the River Frome (Dorset, UK) from 1966 to 2006.

Changes in the relationship between soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) concentration and river flow between 1966 and 2006 were assessed for the River Frome, UK using the recently developed Load Apportionment Model. The resulting source load estimates gave good agreement with known changes within the catchment. The model indicated an increase in point source contribution to the total river load from 46% to 62% between 1970 and 1985. This corresponded with the population increase within the catchment during that time. The predicted mean SRP load was highest between 1996 and 2000 (30 t y(-1)), with 49% coming from point sources. Despite no lowering in population or major changes in agricultural practice, the model predicted a reduced load of 18.1 t y(-1) for the period 2001 to 2005, due mainly to a decrease in point source inputs from 14.6 t y(-1) to 6.1 t y(-1) (equivalent to 34% of the total load). This prediction matches the major improvements in sewage treatment that occurred within the catchment in 2002. This study thus provides a major validation of the Load Apportionment Model. The model provides an effective and rapid method of determining past changes in phosphorus sources, based entirely on the P concentration - flow relationship: critically, it does not require any historical information on land use, fertiliser application rates, topography, soil types and sewage inputs. Further decreases in SRP concentration in the River Frome during the algal growing season would be best achieved by further reductions of STW inputs.

Review and assessment of models used to predict the fate of radionuclides in lakes

A variety of models for predicting the behaviour of radionuclides in fresh water ecosystems have been developed and tested during recent decades within the framework of many international research projects. These models have been implemented in Computerised Decision Support Systems (CDSS) for assisting the appropriate management of fresh water bodies contaminated by radionuclides. The assessment of the state-of-the-art and the consolidation of these CDSSs has been envisaged, by the scientific community, as a primary necessity for the rationalisation of the sector. The classification of the approaches of the various models, the determination of their essential features, the identification of similarities and differences among them and the definition of their application domains are all essential for the harmonisation of the existing CDSSs and for the possible development and improvement of reference models that can be widely applied in different environmental conditions. The present paper summarises the results of the assessment and evaluation of models for predicting the behaviour of radionuclides in lacustrine ecosystems. Such models were developed and tested within major projects financed by the European Commission during its 4th Framework Programme (1994-1998). The work done during the recent decades by many modellers at an international level has produced some consolidated results that are widely accepted by most experts. Nevertheless, some new results have arisen from recent studies and certain model improvements are still necessary.