Jonathan E. Sinton

What Goes Up: Recent Trends in China's Energy Consumption

Since 1996, Chinas energy output has dropped by 17%, while primary energy use has fallen by 4%, driven almost entirely by shrinking output from coal mines and declining direct use. Since China is the worlds second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases, it is important to understand the sources of this apparent transformation, and whether it portends a permanent change in patterns of energy use. This remarkable reversal of the long-term expansion of energy use has occurred even as the economy has continued to grow, albeit more slowly than in the early 1990s. Generation of electric power has risen, implying a steep fall in end uses, particularly in industry. Available information points to a variety of forces contributing to this phenomenon, including rapid improvements in coal quality, structural changes in industry, shutdowns of factories in both the state-owned and non-state segments of the economy, improvements in end-use efficiency, and greater use of gas and electricity in households. A combination of slowing economic growth, industrial restructuring, broader economic system reforms, and environmental and energy-efficiency policies has apparently led to at least a temporary decline in, and perhaps a long-term reduction in the growth of energy use, and therefore greenhouse gas emissions.

Large historical changes of fossil-fuel black carbon aerosols

Anthropogenic emissions of fine black carbon (BC) particles, the principal light-absorbing atmospheric aerosol, have varied during the past century in response to changes of fossil-fuel utilization, technology developments, and emission controls. We estimate historical trends of fossil-fuel BC emissions in six regions that represent about two-thirds of present day emissions and extrapolate these to global emissions from 1875 onward. Qualitative features in these trends show rapid increase in the latter part of the 1800s, the leveling off in the first half of the 1900s, and the re-acceleration in the past 50 years as China and India developed. We find that historical changes of fuel utilization have caused large temporal change in aerosol absorption, and thus substantial change of aerosol single scatter albedo in some regions, which suggests that BC may have contributed to global temperature changes in the past century. This implies that the BC history needs to be represented realistically in climate change assessments.

Changing energy intensity in Chinese industry: The relatively importance of structural shift and intensity change

Abstract We analysed three different sets of energy consumption and output value data using a Laspeyres index method to determine the relative roles of structural shift and real intensity change in Chinas industrial sector between 1980 and 1990. Contrary to prevailing views, we find that real intensity change (economic intensity of industrial subsectors, composed of physical intensity change and other non-structural factors) accounted for most of the large apparent drop in industrial energy intensity in the 1980s. Comparison of economic and physical energy intensity indicators suggests that physical intensity was not the only major cause of real intensity change.

An assessment of programs to promote improved household stoves in China

In 2002, a team of US and Chinese researchers collaborated on an independent, multidisciplinary review of Chinas improved rural household stove programs that have been carried out since the 1980s. The objectives were to delineate and evaluate the methods used to promote improved stoves, to assess the development of commercial stove production and marketing organizations, and to measure the household impacts of the programs through surveys of health, stoves, and indoor air quality. The team found that China implemented broadly successful programs that delivered better stoves to a majority of households in targeted counties. That success was based on strong administrative, technical, and outreach competence and resources situated at the local level, motivated by sustained national-level attention. Despite overstated claims for penetration of improved stoves, mostbiomass stoves now in use have flues and other “improved” aspects, although field efficiencies are less than design efficiencies. However, most coal stoves, even those using improved fuel (briquettes), lack flues and cannot be considered improved. While in most areas “improved” stove technology became “conventional”, some areas remain significant exceptions and require intervention. Large roles for government oversight of quality control and support of R&D remain inadequately fulfilled. Most results of indoor air quality monitoring and health surveys were not clear-cut, in part because of the wide variety of fuel and stove combinations used by households. For nearly all household stove/fuel groupings, however, PM4 levels were higher than – and sometimes more than twice as high as – the national standard for indoor air (150 μg PM10/m3). If these results are typical, then a large fraction of Chinas rural population is now chronically exposed to levels of pollution far higher than those determined by the Chinese government to harm human health. Improved stoves in the surveyed households did result in reduced PM4 concentrations indoors for biomass fuel combinations. Coal use was associated with elevated levels of CO in exhaled breath, and improved biomass stoves with lower levels. Childhood asthma and adult respiratory disease were positively associated with coal use and negatively associated with improved stoves and good stove maintenance. The benefits of using improved biomass stoves can be outweighed by the use of portable coal stoves without flues. Evaluation of the programs provides important lessons for future initiatives in China and in other countries.

Accuracy and reliability of China's energy statistics

Many observers have raised doubts about the accuracy and reliability of Chinas energy statistics, which show an unprecedented decline in recent years, while reported economic growth has remained strong. This paper explores the internal consistency of Chinas energy statistics from 1990 to 2000, coverage and reporting issues, and the state of the statistical reporting system. Available information suggests that, while energy statistics were probably relatively good in the early 1990s, their quality has declined since the mid-1990s. Chinas energy statistics should be treated as a starting point for analysis, and explicit judgments regarding ranges of uncertainty should accompany any conclusions.

Energy use and carbon dioxide emissions from steel production in China

In 1996, China manufactured just over 100Mt of steel and became the worlds largest steel producer. Official Chinese energy consumption statistics for the steel industry include activities not directly associated with the production of steel, ‘double-count’ some coal-based energy consumption, and do not cover the entire Chinese steelmaking industry. In this paper, we make adjustements to the reported statistical data in order to provide energy use values for steel production in China that are comparable to statistics used internationally. We find that for 1996, official statistics need to be reduced by 1365PJ to account for non-steel production activities and double-counting. Official statistics also need to be increased by 415PJ in order to include steelmaking energy use of small plants not included in official statistics. This leads to an overall reduction of 950PJ for steelmaking in China in 1996. Thus, the official final energy use value of 4018PJ drops to 3067PJ. In primary energy terms, the official primary energy use value of 4555PJ is reduced to 3582PJ when these adjustments are made.

Energy efficiency in China: accomplishments and challenges

Abstract In 1980, the Chinese government made a series of policy decisions to stimulate energy efficiency in a major effort to partially decouple energy and economic growth. These and subsequent policy decisions, combined with a variety of implementation measures, have been exceptionally successful. China is one of the few countries at a relatively early stage of industrialization in which energy demand has consistently — and over many years — grown significantly less rapidly than gross domestic product (GDP). China’s primary energy consumption in 1995 was 1250 million metric tons of standard coal equivalent (Mtce). If energy intensity has remained at the 1977 level, China would have consumed 2700 Mtce in 1996, 2.2 times the actual level. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the policy measures and implementation approaches that China used to achieve these results. We describe the programs that channeled investment into energy efficiency projects, management systems that encouraged factories to reduce energy demand, research and development programs that produced and applied technology to the problem of energy saving, the creation and widespread use of energy conservation service centers throughout China, and other policies. We also describe the present transition to a system that is much more market oriented, and identify some major challenges that need to be dealt with to maintain the extraordinary efforts in China to reduce energy intensity.

China energy databook

The response to the first edition of the China Energy Databook was overwhelmingly positive, and has encouraged us to issue this revised, updated, and expanded edition. It has been a natural counterpart to the Energy Analysis Program`s continuing program of collaborative research with the Energy Research Institute. No other current reference volume dedicated to China`s energy system contains a similar variety and quality of material. We have revised some of the categories and data that appeared in the old volume. The adjustment for energy consumption in the transportation sector, for instance, has been slightly changed to include some fuel use in the commercial sector, which was previously left out. As another example, natural gas consumption statistics in the first edition greatly overstated electric utility use; we have rectified that error. Some tables have changed as statistical collection and reporting practices change in China. Figures on gross output value by sector stop with 1992, and economic output in subsequent years is covered by various measures of value-added, such as national income and gross domestic product.

Indoor Air Pollution in Rural China: Cooking Fuels, Stoves, and Health Status

Solid fuels are a major source of indoor air pollution, but in less developed countries the short-term health effects of indoor air pollution are poorly understood. The authors conducted a large cross-sectional study of rural Chinese households to determine associations between individual health status and domestic cooking as a source of indoor air pollution. The study included measures of health status as well as measures of indoor air-pollution sources, such as solid cooking fuels and cooking stoves. Compared with other fuel types, coal was associated with a lower health status, including negative impacts on exhaled carbon monoxide level, forced vital capacity, lifetime prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and asthma, and health care utilization. Decreasing household coal use, increasing use of improved stove technology, and increasing kitchen ventilation may decrease the short-term health effects of indoor air pollution.

Environmental implications of energy policy in china

Abstract Acquiring and using energy damages the environment more than almost any other set of human activities. However, increased energy usage does not necessarily lead to environmental degradation. As Chinas energy system undergoes sporadic bouts of market liberalisation, decentralisation, internationalisation, and urbanisation, governance plays an important role in influencing environmental outcomes. A review of institutional reforms since 1978, focusing on coal, hydropower, and rural energy, illustrates the role of government policy, implementation, and institutions in augmenting and abating the environmental degradation that can accompany expanded energy usage. This article explores the interaction between energy, governance, and the environment in China, and identifies key variables that can influence the environmental impacts of future energy usage.