Jonathan Köhler

Costs of greenhouse gas abatement: meta-analysis of post-SRES mitigation scenarios

Economic analyses have produced widely differing estimates of the economic implications of policies for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, ranging from high costs to modest benefits. The main reason for the differences appears to be differences in approaches and assumptions. This paper analyzes the extent to which the post-SRES1 (after the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) model results for the global costs of GHG mitigation can be explained by the model’s characteristics and the assumptions adopted. The research applies meta-analysis methodology combined with scatter plots of the data to identify the ranges of the results and outlying data points. A database of scenarios and results was compiled for the post-SRES scenarios, which has the major advantage that all seven models for which suitable data are available have been run using the same, independently defined scenarios. The results are strongly clustered, with only a few results outside the range of −4% to 0% gross domestic product (GDP), with a strong correlation between CO2 reduction and GDP reduction. A set of model characteristics is found to be highly significant (1% level), explaining some 70% of the variance. The main conclusion is that all modeling results regarding “GDP costs of mitigating climate change” should be qualified by the key assumptions leading to the estimates. The treatment of these assumptions can lead to the mitigation being associated with increases in GDP or with reductions.

Globalization and Sustainable Development: Case Study on International Transport and Sustainable Development

This article assesses the potential contribution for international shipping and long-haul aviation to contribute to sustainable development (SD). The trade literature shows that newly industrializing countries are benefitting from international trade for export-led growth. However, the least developed countries with limited access to international trade networks do not participate in the new global production networks. The World Trade Organization/General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change regimes do not have the development of more sustainable transport systems as a priority. In this sense, international transport remains on the fringes of the environment and development policy fields. Three transition pathways to SD have been developed: (a) information and telecommunications technologies leading to particip.ation of least developed countries in global production networks, (b) changes in social preferences toward a high priority for the environment, leading to an extensive growth in fair-trade networks and sustainable production and consumption, and (c) SD from economic growth in newly industrializing countries, with an increased priority placed on solving environmental problems.

Eco-innovation in NICs: conditions for export success with an application to biofuels in transport.

This article looks at sustainable development and globalization from the perspective of the eco-innovation literature for the case of biofuels in transport. It assesses the potential for newly industrialized countries (NICs) to develop technology and hence export markets in biofuel equipment. An analysis of innovation indicators suggests those countries that have strong capacities in eco-innovation in general. The analysis considers demand and regulatory factors in addition to technological capabilities in biofuels and complementary sectors. A very large global market in biofuels for transport could develop. The case of biofuels in Brazil shows that demand-oriented innovation policy coordinated with supply-oriented research and development policies can be successful in NICs for developing markets in new technologies for sustainability. Brazil, China, Malaysia, Mexico, and South Africa, as well as Indonesia, Thailand, and possibly India, have the favorable combination of high biofuel production potential and the requisite technological capability to develop internationally competitive second-generation biofuel production technologies.

Mapping innovation in the European transport sector : An assessment of R&D efforts and priorities, institutional capacities, drivers and barriers to innovation

The present document provides an overview of the innovation capacity of the European transport sectors. The analysis addresses transport-related innovation from three different angles. It identifies the drivers and barriers to innovation for the main transport sub-sectors; it assesses quantitative indicators through the detailed analysis of the main industrial RD and it identifies the key actors for transport research and knowledge flows between them in order to detect shortcomings in the current institutional set-up of transport innovation. The analysis finds that despite the significant on-going research efforts in transport, largely driven by the automotive industry, the potential for systemic innovations that go beyond modal boundaries and leave the currently pre-dominant design are under-exploited due to prominent lock-in effects caused by infrastructure and the institutional set-up of the innovation systems

Modelling Sustainability Transitions: An Assessment of Approaches and Challenges

Transition modelling is an emerging but growing niche within the broader field of sustainability transitions research. The objective of this paper is to explore the characteristics of this niche in relation to a range of existing modelling approaches and literatures with which it shares commonalities or from which it could draw. We distil a number of key aspects we think a transitions model should be able to address, from a broadly acknowledged, empirical list of transition characteristics. We review some of the main strands in modelling of socio-technological change with regards to their ability to address these characteristics. These are: Eco-innovation literatures (energy-economy models and Integrated Assessment Models), evolutionary economics, complex systems models, computational social science simulations using agent based models, system dynamics models and socio-ecological systems models. The modelling approaches reviewed can address many of the features that differentiate sustainability transitions from other socio-economic dynamics or innovations. The most problematic features are the representation of qualitatively different system states and of the normative aspects of change. The comparison provides transition researchers with a starting point for their choice of a modelling approach, whose characteristics should correspond to the characteristics of the research question they face. A promising line of research is to develop innovative models of co-evolution of behaviours and technologies towards sustainability, involving change in the structure of the societal and technical systems.

Capped Steam Ahead - A Case Study Among Ship Operators on a Maritime ETS

International shipping is an important emitter of greenhouse gases. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) is discussing different approaches to reduce maritime CO2 emissions, in particular market-based mechanisms. In this paper, we assess potential implications of a maritime emission trading scheme (ETS) on the organisation and operations of shipping companies, primarily on the basis of a case study involving ship operators. Our results suggest that there is no knock-out criterion why a cap-andtrade approach should not work in the shipping sector in practice. A maritime ETS has the potential to engage this sector into cost-efficient emission reduction if designed to account for the special characteristics of the international shipping industry.

Contextual Requirements for Electric Vehicles in Developed and Developing Countries: The Example of China

Implications for China – Instead of following the Western motorisation path, an option for China could be to develop a new one-stop-shop mobility concept integrating small EVs into such a concept.

Infrastructure investment for a transition to hydrogen road vehicles

This paper describes work undertaken in the MATISSE project to explore the potential for a sustainable hydrogen transition within Europe and the implications for infrastructure investment. Results from the ASTRA model show that a transition to hydrogen transport fuels would have an increase in GDP, employment and investment; and growth in a number of sectors (electronic, chemical, mechanical, automotive) associated with FCV technology. A hydrogen diffusion model shows that in a few years after 2040 all cars in Germany could be hydrogen driven cars. Fast build up of a network of at least 500 filling stations (in urban areas and at highways) is very important for the market acceptance of hydrogen vehicles and compared with subsidies for vehicles and fuel the necessary investments are very small. For fuel infrastructure: (1) Only a total amount of approx. 200 million Euros are necessary for infrastructure build up in urban areas (2) Additional support is needed for installation of hydrogen filing stations at highways (approx. 100 million Euros).