José Alberto Magno de Carvalho

O envelhecimento da população brasileira: um enfoque demográfico

Contrary to common sense, the population aging process is due to the decline in fertility rather than mortality. The aging process began around the end of the 19th century in a number of Western European countries, expanded to the rest of the so-called First World over the past century, and reached several Third World countries afterwards, including Brazil over the last decades. In the Brazilian case, a sharp and widespread fertility decline began by the end of the 1960s, and an accelerated population aging process can thus be expected. This process will necessarily be faster and with deeper structural changes, demographically speaking, than in First World countries, for two reasons: the fertility decline in Brazil was faster, and it took place in a population with a younger age structure.

O rápido processo de envelhecimento populacional do Brasil: sérios desafios para as políticas públicas

The positive effects of the recent age structure transition (AST) in Brazil can be seen in children’s health services, education and other areas. The higher growth rate estimated for the economically active population in coming decades constitutes a new area of opportunities. The combination of the older segment of the labor force (ages 25 to 64), which is showing high growth, with the junior segment (ages 15 to 24), which is showing very low or even negative growth rates, indicates a trend toward reducing the demographic pressure for new jobs. The training of the future labor force has become an indispensable component for a more just intergenerational, social and economic balance. Due to the age structure transition, new challenges are emerging related to the expansion of the older population. If the present per capita transfer of funds from the government is maintained constant, the difference between revenue and expenses will increase, causing an unsustainable fiscal deficit. The expected crisis brought about by the aging of the population and the current irrational social security system must be urgently discussed in Brazilian society. The best must be made of the opportunities generated by age structure transition in order to prepare to face the new resulting challenges.

A transição da estrutura etária da população brasileira na primeira metade do século XXI

A trajetoria da populacao brasileira, na primeira metade deste seculo, tanto em termos de seu volume, quanto de sua estrutura etaria, ja esta praticamente definida, pois, tanto a transicao de mortalidade quanto a da fecundidade ja se encontram muito avancadas. Enquanto a populacao idosa (65 e mais anos de idade) aumentara a taxas altas (entre 2% e 4% ao ano), a populacao jovem tendera a decrescer. Segundo projecoes das Nacoes Unidas, de 3,1% da populacao total, em 1970, a populacao idosa brasileira devera passar a aproximadamente 19%, em 2050. Paralelamente, conviverao dentro das populacoes jovem e adulta subgrupos etarios com crescimento negativo e positivo. A transicao etaria brasileira gera oportunidades e desafios que, se nao aproveitados e enfrentados, no momento devido, levara o pais a seriissimos problemas, nas proximas decadas.

The demography of inequality in Brazil.

Lang uag e: English Year: 1988 Reg ion / Country: Brazil | South America | Americas

Estimating the stability of census-based racial/ethnic classifications: The case of Brazil

This study presents a method of estimating the degree to which people change their racial/ethnic identity from one census enumeration to another. The technique is applied to the classification of skin colour in Brazil (white, black, brown, yellow). For the period 1950–80, the findings show a deficit of 38 per cent in the black category and a gain of 34 per cent in the brown category, suggesting that a large proportion of individuals who declared themselves black in 1950 reclassified themselves as brown in 1980. Estimates for 1980–90, adjusted for the effects of international migration, reveal a similar pattern, although the magnitude of colour reclassification may have declined somewhat during the 1980s. Procedures to determine the stability of racial/ethnic identity produce data useful to recent policy initiatives that rely on demographic censuses to measure changes in the status of minority groups in less developed countries.

A demografia brasileira e o declínio da fecundidade no Brasil: contribuições, equívocos e silêncios

Since the late 1960s the Brazilian population has gone through a very rapid decline in fertility. In just three decades the overall annual fertility fell from 5.8 to only 2.3. The present article analyzes the positions of the experts in the field of population studies regarding this phenomenon. To understand their positions and attitudes, the international context during the 1960s and 1970s must be taken into account, polarized as it was by the tension between the socialist and the capitalist blocks. The majority of Brazilian social scientists, opponents of neo-Malthusianism, were against any type of presence of the State in the field of human reproduction. They held two strong convictions: 1) there was no demand for contraception in Brazilian society and 2) the pace of the Brazilian population growth, as well as the size of the country’s population, were “neutral,” from the standpoint of the welfare of individuals. This ideological debate has since become outdated. The changes in fertility in Brazil are quite advanced. However, some women, especially the poorest, still receive no information about or access to the means needed to plan the number of children they wish to have. On the other hand, Brazilian society is also failing to take advantage of opportunities created by the fall in fertility, and is not preparing itself to face the new challenges resulting from this very fall. Many demographers and population researchers are still “silent” as to these aspects.

A variação do saldo migratório internacional do Brasil

OS REGISTROS administrativos dos vistos consulares de residencia, mesmo quando disponibilizados, tanto pelos consulados estrangeiros no Brasil quanto por aqueles do pais no exterior, nao permitem calcular os fluxos de imigrantes e de emigrantes internacionais, em razao da alta proporcao de migrantes clandestinos ou ilegais. Como consequencia, nao se pode saber, a partir dos registros, nem sequer se o Brasil tem tido saldos migratorios internacionais positivos ou negativos. Tecnicas indiretas permitem estimar o saldo migratorio internacional, a partir das populacoes enumeradas em dois censos consecutivos. Na data do segundo censo, sao comparadas as populacoes observada (recenseada) e esperada (aquela que se teria, se porventura a populacao do pais tivesse permanecido fechada entre os dois censos). A diferenca entre elas corresponde, em principio, ao saldo migratorio internacional. Apesar das dificuldades tecnicas, advindas principalmente da significativa variacao de cobertura entre os Censos de 1991 e de 2000, concluiu-se que o Brasil teria tido, entre 1980 e 1990, um saldo migratorio negativo de aproximadamente 1.800 mil pessoas. O saldo, tambem negativo, teria caido significativamente, no decenio 1990/2000, para em torno de 550 mil pessoas. Esse declinio teria ocorrido em razao, quase que inteiramente, da diminuicao da emigracao brasileira. A imigracao internacional aumentou muito pouco, como se pode constatar a partir dos dados censitarios de 1991 e 2000.

Integrando oferta e demanda de serviços de saneamento: análise hierárquica do panorama urbano brasileiro no ano 2000

The paper aims at identifying the main determinants of the presence of water supply and sanitation services, for Brazilian urban households in 2000. The supply and demand dimensions were converted in variables, using data from IBGE and Receita Federal. Descriptive and analytical statistics were performed, in the last case through multiple regression with hierarchical model. In explaining the presence of the services in the households, the supply perspective showed more relevant than the demand variables, probably due to the extreme regional differentials in the Country. In supply dimension the categories that presented the highest chances were the Southeast region and the Autarchic management model. About the demand perspective, the lowest chances are in households were the head are man, single, younger, black and with lower schooling, as well as the family gains are lower.

Urban hierarchy in the brazilian Amazon

The Grade of Membership (GoM) model is used to outline profiles based on a heterogeneous and multidimensional database, which allows identifying clusters and describing the differences among them. In this study, GoM uses several types of variables so as to improve the understanding of the greatness and power of Amazonian cities. To accomplish this task, a model that takes into account a variety of aspects, which exceed a purely economic or demographic analysis, is proposed. Understanding the hierarchical organization of the cities in the Amazon seems to be a very important exercise in order to understand the dynamics and specific characteristics of regional urban nets. In this way, it is evident that policies which stimulate the establishment of more structured urban nets in the Amazon are needed. A more balanced population distribution throughout the territory could bring a series of benefits, especially when it comes to the offer and access to all different sorts of services.

A presença de imigrantes de países do Cone Sul no Brasil: medidas e reflexões

This article estimates migratory balances of persons born in Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay in the 1980s and 1990s and who migrated to Brazil. Statistics were developed for Brazil as a whole and for the Brazilian states that have the highest proportions of populations of these immigrants. Factors that may have affected the changes in volume and composition shown by immigrants from Southern Cone countries between 1980 and 2000 are also analyzed.