Ricardo Alexandrino Garcia

Modelling conservation in the Amazon basin

Expansion of the cattle and soy industries in the Amazon basin has increased deforestation rates and will soon push all-weather highways into the regions core. In the face of this growing pressure, a comprehensive conservation strategy for the Amazon basin should protect its watersheds, the full range of species and ecosystem diversity, and the stability of regional climates. Here we report that protected areas in the Amazon basin—the central feature of prevailing conservation approaches—are an important but insufficient component of this strategy, based on policy-sensitive simulations of future deforestation. By 2050, current trends in agricultural expansion will eliminate a total of 40% of Amazon forests, including at least two-thirds of the forest cover of six major watersheds and 12 ecoregions, releasing 32 ± 8 Pg of carbon to the atmosphere. One-quarter of the 382 mammalian species examined will lose more than 40% of the forest within their Amazon ranges. Although an expanded and enforced network of protected areas could avoid as much as one-third of this projected forest loss, conservation on private lands is also essential. Expanding market pressures for sound land management and prevention of forest clearing on lands unsuitable for agriculture are critical ingredients of a strategy for comprehensive conservation.

O envelhecimento da população brasileira: um enfoque demográfico

Contrary to common sense, the population aging process is due to the decline in fertility rather than mortality. The aging process began around the end of the 19th century in a number of Western European countries, expanded to the rest of the so-called First World over the past century, and reached several Third World countries afterwards, including Brazil over the last decades. In the Brazilian case, a sharp and widespread fertility decline began by the end of the 1960s, and an accelerated population aging process can thus be expected. This process will necessarily be faster and with deeper structural changes, demographically speaking, than in First World countries, for two reasons: the fertility decline in Brazil was faster, and it took place in a population with a younger age structure.

Role of Brazilian Amazon protected areas in climate change mitigation

Protected areas (PAs) now shelter 54% of the remaining forests of the Brazilian Amazon and contain 56% of its forest carbon. However, the role of these PAs in reducing carbon fluxes to the atmosphere from deforestation and their associated costs are still uncertain. To fill this gap, we analyzed the effect of each of 595 Brazilian Amazon PAs on deforestation using a metric that accounts for differences in probability of deforestation in areas of pairwise comparison. We found that the three major categories of PA (indigenous land, strictly protected, and sustainable use) showed an inhibitory effect, on average, between 1997 and 2008. Of 206 PAs created after the year 1999, 115 showed increased effectiveness after their designation as protected. The recent expansion of PAs in the Brazilian Amazon was responsible for 37% of the regions total reduction in deforestation between 2004 and 2006 without provoking leakage. All PAs, if fully implemented, have the potential to avoid 8.0 ± 2.8 Pg of carbon emissions by 2050. Effectively implementing PAs in zones under high current or future anthropogenic threat offers high payoffs for reducing carbon emissions, and as a result should receive special attention in planning investments for regional conservation. Nevertheless, this strategy demands prompt and predictable resource streams. The Amazon PA network represents a cost of US

Cenários de desmatamento para a Amazônia

147 ± 53 billion (net present value) for Brazil in terms of forgone profits and investments needed for their consolidation. These costs could be partially compensated by an international climate accord that includes economic incentives for tropical countries that reduce their carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation.

Territorialismo e a política de desenvolvimento: estratégias de produção do território no Brasil

A AMAZONIA esta entrando em uma era de rapidas mudancas impulsionadas pela previsao de asfaltamento de rodovias que estimularao a expansao da fronteira agricola e de exploracao madeireira. O declinio do custo de transporte tem importantes implicacoes para a biodiversidade, emissao de gases que contribuem para o efeito estufa e prosperidade da sociedade da Amazonia a longo prazo. Para analisar esse contexto, foi desenvolvido um modelo de simulacao de desmatamento na bacia Amazonica, sensivel a diferentes cenarios de politicas publicas frente a expansao da infra-estrutura de transporte pela regiao. Resultados do modelo indicam que, dentro de um cenario pessimista, o desmatamento projetado pode eliminar, ate meados deste seculo, 40% dos atuais 5,4 milhoes de km2 de florestas da Amazonia, liberando o equivalente a 32 Pg (109 toneladas) de carbono para atmosfera. A modelagem de cenarios alternativos aponta que a expansao de uma rede de areas protegidas, efetivamente implementadas, poderia reduzir em ate 1/3 as perdas florestais projetadas. Contudo, outras medidas de conservacao sao ainda necessarias para se manter a integridade funcional das paisagens e bacias hidrograficas amazonicas. Atuais experimentos em conservacao florestal em propriedades privadas, mercados de servicos ambientais e zoneamento agro-ecologico devem ser refinados e multiplicados a fim de se buscar uma conservacao extensiva.

Estimativas dos emigrantes internacionais do Brasil entre 1995 e 2000: uma aplicação do método das razões intercensitárias de sobrevivência

The historical-geographical formation process of the Brazilian society was conducted by modernity promises in which the notion of development, derived from the notion of progress, was the social fuel that sustained the movement of inclusion of capitalist relations in Brazil in the 20th century. The prevailing idea in governmental action has been the overcoming of regional inequality through the inclusion of Brazilian regions in the capitalism competitive circuit. This paper argues that this discourse has been a strategy of territory production, typical of hegemonic agents within the capitalist reproduction circuit. To understand this process, this paper revisits a geographical notion that has

Estimates of international migrants leaving Brazil between 1995 and 2000: an application of the intercensal survival method

Due to the lack of data on demographic movements in space and time, demographers and scholars of the population have long resorted to indirect methods for measuring net migration. The most recent Brazilian Demographic Censuses contain a considerable amount of data on population movements that can provide direct estimates of migratory flows. In addition, data not directly related to migration,but handled through the application of indirect techniques, provide estimates of net migration. More recently a combination of direct and indirect techniques has made it possible to estimate international migration flows. This question represents a methodological challenge and represents an opportunity to understand important aspects of the dynamics of migration in Brazil. Few studies, however, have dealt with the development and improvement of methods and techniques aimed at estimating analytical categories such as international emigration. The main objective of this paper is therefore to provide estimates of international emigration of Brazilians by sex, age and state during the second half of the 1990s, by applying the Census Survival Ratio Method.

Estimaciones de los emigrantes internacionales de Brasil entre 1995 y 2000: una aplicación del método de las razones intercensales de supervivencia

Due to the lack of data on demographic movements in space and time, demographers and scholars of the population have long resorted to indirect methods for measuring net migration. The most recent Brazilian Demographic Censuses contain a considerable amount of data on population movements that can provide direct estimates of migratory flows. In addition, data not directly related to migration,but handled through the application of indirect techniques, provide estimates of net migration. More recently a combination of direct and indirect techniques has made it possible to estimate international migration flows. This question represents a methodological challenge and represents an opportunity to understand important aspects of the dynamics of migration in Brazil. Few studies, however, have dealt with the development and improvement of methods and techniques aimed at estimating analytical categories such as international emigration. The main objective of this paper is therefore to provide estimates of international emigration of Brazilians by sex, age and state during the second half of the 1990s, by applying the Census Survival Ratio Method.

Grass pollen, aeroallergens, and clinical symptoms in Ciudad Real, Spain.

Due to the lack of data on demographic movements in space and time, demographers and scholars of the population have long resorted to indirect methods for measuring net migration. The most recent Brazilian Demographic Censuses contain a considerable amount of data on population movements that can provide direct estimates of migratory flows. In addition, data not directly related to migration,but handled through the application of indirect techniques, provide estimates of net migration. More recently a combination of direct and indirect techniques has made it possible to estimate international migration flows. This question represents a methodological challenge and represents an opportunity to understand important aspects of the dynamics of migration in Brazil. Few studies, however, have dealt with the development and improvement of methods and techniques aimed at estimating analytical categories such as international emigration. The main objective of this paper is therefore to provide estimates of international emigration of Brazilians by sex, age and state during the second half of the 1990s, by applying the Census Survival Ratio Method.