Joseph J. Cione

THIRTY YEARS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE RESEARCH WITH THE NOAA P-3 AIRCRAFT

In 1976 and 1977, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration purchased two customized WP-3D (P-3) aircraft to conduct tropical cyclone (TC) research. During their first 30 years, the P-3s have proved to be invaluable research platforms, obtaining data at the micro- to synoptic scale, with missions conducted in 134 TCs in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific Oceans and near Australia. Analyses of the observations led to many new insights about TC structure, dynamics, thermodynamics, and environmental interactions. The real-time use of the information by the National Hurricane and Environmental Modeling Centers of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), as well as later research, has helped to increase the accuracy of wind, flood, and storm surge forecasts and severe weather warnings and has resulted in significant improvements to operational numerical model guidance for TC-track forecasts. In commemoration of the first 30 years of research with these aircraft, this manuscript present...

NOAA'S Hurricane Intensity Forecasting Experiment: A Progress Report

An update of the progress achieved as part of the NOAA Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX) is provided. Included is a brief summary of the noteworthy aircraft missions flown in the years since 2005, the first year IFEX flights occurred, as well as a description of the research and development activities that directly address the three primary IFEX goals: 1) collect observations that span the tropical cyclone (TC) life cycle in a variety of environments for model initialization and evaluation; 2) develop and refine measurement strategies and technologies that provide improved real-time monitoring of TC intensity, structure, and environment; and 3) improve the understanding of physical processes important in intensity change for a TC at all stages of its life cycle. Such activities include the real-time analysis and transmission of Doppler radar measurements; numerical model and data assimilation advancements; characterization of tropical cyclone composite structure across multiple scales, from vortex s...

Observations of Air-Sea Interaction and Intensity Change in Hurricanes

Recent enhancements to the tropical cyclone-buoy database (TCBD) have incorporated data from the Extended Best Track (EBT) and the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) archive for tropical cyclones between 1975 and 2007. This information is used to analyze the relationships between large-scale atmospheric parameters, radial and shear-relative air‐sea structure, and intensity change in strengthening and weakening hurricanes. Observations from this research illustrate that the direction of the large-scale vertical wind shear at mid- to low levels can impact atmospheric moisture conditions found near the surface. Drier low-level environments were associated with northerly shear conditions. In a separate analysis comparing strengthening and weakening hurricanes, drier surface conditions were also found for the intensifying sample. Since SST conditions were similar for both groups of storms, it is likely that the atmospherewasprimarilyresponsibleformodifyingthenear-surfacethermodynamicenvironment(andultimately surface moisture flux conditions) for this particular analysis.

Evaluating Environmental Impacts on Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Predictability Utilizing Statistical Models

AbstractNew multi-lead-time versions of three statistical probabilistic tropical cyclone rapid intensification (RI) prediction models are developed for the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins. These are the linear-discriminant analysis–based Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme Rapid Intensification Index (SHIPS-RII), logistic regression, and Bayesian statistical RI models. Consensus RI models derived by averaging the three individual RI model probability forecasts are also generated. A verification of the cross-validated forecasts of the above RI models conducted for the 12-, 24-, 36-, and 48-h lead times indicates that these models generally exhibit skill relative to climatological forecasts, with the eastern Pacific models providing somewhat more skill than the Atlantic ones and the consensus versions providing more skill than the individual models. A verification of the deterministic RI model forecasts indicates that the operational intensity guidance exhibits some limited RI predic...

Observations of Infrared Sea Surface Temperature and Air–Sea Interaction in Hurricane Edouard (2014) Using GPS Dropsondes

AbstractThis study highlights infrared sensor technology incorporated into the global positioning system (GPS) dropsonde platforms to obtain sea surface temperature (SST) measurements. This modified sonde (IRsonde) is used to improve understanding of air–sea interaction in tropical cyclones (TCs). As part of the Sandy Supplemental Program, IRsondes were constructed and then deployed during the 2014 hurricane season. Comparisons between SSTs measured by collocated IRsondes and ocean expendables show good agreement, especially in regions with no rain contamination. Surface fluxes were estimated using measurements from the IRsondes and AXBTs via a bulk method that requires measurements of SST and near-surface (10 m) wind speed, temperature, and humidity. The evolution of surface fluxes and their role in the intensification and weakening of Hurricane Edouard (2014) are discussed in the context of boundary layer recovery. The study’s result emphasizes the important role of surface flux–induced boundary layer r...

The Ice Water Paths of Small and Large Ice Species in Hurricanes Arthur (2014) and Irene (2011)

AbstractDual-polarization scanning radar measurements, air temperature soundings, and a polarimetric radar-based particle identification scheme are used to generate maps and probability density functions (PDFs) of the ice water path (IWP) in Hurricanes Arthur (2014) and Irene (2011) at landfall. The IWP is separated into the contribution from small ice (i.e., ice crystals), termed small-particle IWP, and large ice (i.e., graupel and snow), termed large-particle IWP. Vertically profiling radar data from Hurricane Arthur suggest that the small ice particles detected by the scanning radar have fall velocities mostly greater than 0.25 m s−1 and that the particle identification scheme is capable of distinguishing between small and large ice particles in a mean sense. The IWP maps and PDFs reveal that the total and large-particle IWPs range up to 10 kg m−2, with the largest values confined to intense convective precipitation within the rainbands and eyewall. Small-particle IWP remains mostly <4 kg m−2, with the...