Kirk A. Maasch

A 50,000-Year Record of Climate Oscillations from Florida and Its Temporal Correlation with the Heinrich Events

Oscillations of Pinus (pine) pollen in a 50,000-year sequence from Lake Tulane, Florida, indicate that there were major vegetation shifts during the last glacial cycle. Episodes of abundant Pinus populations indicate a climate that was more wet than intervening phases dominated by Quercus (oak) and Ambrosia-type (ragweed and marsh-elder). The Pinus episodes seem to be temporally correlated with the North Atlantic Heinrich events, which were massive, periodic advances of ice streams from the eastern margin of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Possible links between the Tulane Pinus and Heinrich events include hemispheric cooling, the influences of Mississippi meltwater on sea-surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico, and the effects of North Atlantic thermohaline circulation on currents in the Gulf.

Variation in Holocene El Niño frequencies: Climate records and cultural consequences in ancient Peru

Analysis of mollusks from archaeological sites on the north and central coasts of Peru indicates that between ca. 5800 and 3200–2800 cal yr B.P., El Nino events were less frequent than today, with modern, rapid recurrence intervals achieved only after that time. For several millennia prior to 5.8 ka, El Nino events had been absent or very different from today. The phenomena called El Nino have had severe consequences for the modern and colonial (historically recorded) inhabitants of Peru, and El Nino events also influenced prehistoric cultural development: the onset of El Nino events at 5.8 ka correlates temporally with the beginning of monumental temple construction on the Peruvian coast, and the increase in El Nino frequency after 3.2–2.8 ka correlates with the abandonment of monumental temples in the same region.

State of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate system

This paper reviews developments in our understanding of the state of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate, and its relation to the global climate system over the last few millennia. Climate over this and earlier periods has not been stable, as evidenced by the occurrence of abrupt changes in atmospheric circulation and temperature recorded in Antarctic ice core proxies for past climate. Two of the most prominent abrupt climate change events are characterized by intensification of the circumpolar westerlies (also known as the Southern Annular Mode) between ~6000 and 5000 years ago and since 1200-1000 years ago. Following the last of these is a period of major trans-Antarctic reorganization of atmospheric circulation and temperature between AD1700 and 1850. The two earlier Antarctic abrupt climate change events appear linked to but predate by several centuries even more abrupt climate change in the North Atlantic, and the end of the more recent event is coincident with reorganization of atmospheric circulation in the North Pacific. Improved understanding of such events and of the associations between abrupt climate change events recorded in both hemispheres is critical to predicting the impact and timing of future abrupt climate change events potentially forced by anthropogenic changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols. n nSpecial attention is given to the climate of the past 200 years, which was recorded by a network of recently available shallow firn cores, and to that of the past 50 years, which was monitored by the continuous instrumental record. Significant regional climate changes have taken place in the Antarctic during the past 50 years. Atmospheric temperatures have increased markedly over the Antarctic Peninsula, linked to nearby ocean warming and intensification of the circumpolar westerlies. Glaciers are retreating on the Peninsula, in Patagonia, on the sub-Antarctic islands, and in West Antarctica adjacent to the Peninsula. The penetration of marine air masses has become more pronounced over parts of West Antarctica. Above the surface, the Antarctic troposphere has warmed during winter while the stratosphere has cooled year-round. The upper kilometer of the circumpolar Southern Ocean has warmed, Antarctic Bottom Water across a wide sector off East Antarctica has freshened, and the densest bottom water in the Weddell Sea has warmed. In contrast to these regional climate changes, over most of Antarctica near-surface temperature and snowfall have not increased significantly during at least the past 50 years, and proxy data suggest that the atmospheric circulation over the interior has remained in a similar state for at least the past 200 years. Furthermore, the total sea ice cover around Antarctica has exhibited no significant overall change since reliable satellite monitoring began in the late 1970s, despite large but compensating regional changes. The inhomogeneity of Antarctic climate in space and time implies that recent Antarctic climate changes are due on the one hand to a combination of strong multi-decadal variability and anthropogenic effects and, as demonstrated by the paleoclimate record, on the other hand to multi-decadal to millennial scale and longer natural variability forced through changes in orbital insolation, greenhouse gases, solar variability, ice dynamics, and aerosols. n nModel projections suggest that over the 21st century the Antarctic interior will warm by 3.4° ± 1oC, and sea ice extent will decrease by ~30%. Ice sheet models are not yet adequate enough to answer pressing questions about the effect of projected warming on mass balance and sea level. Considering the potentially major impacts of a warming climate on Antarctica, vigorous efforts are needed to better understand all aspects of the highly coupled Antarctic climate system as well as its influence on the Earths climate and oceans.

The Late Quaternary Glaciations as the Response of a Three-Component Feedback System to Earth-Orbital Forcing

Abstract A climatic feedback system previously described, consisting of three prognostic nonlinear equations governing the mass of ice sheets ζ, the mass of marine and continental marginal ice χ, and the mean ocean temperature θ is forced by a representation of the effects of external earth-orbital variations. With reasonable amplitudes for the eccentricity, obliquity, and precession forcing, the free oscillatory solutions of major period near 100 kyr can be modified in a way that substantially agrees with the δ18O-derived observations of ice mass evolution. In particular, a proper structure, variance spectrum, and “phase lock” of the major variations are obtained over the last 400 kyr. An analysis of the sensitivity of these results to variations in the model parameters and to random perturbations shows that the solution is robust for small changes in all but a few of the equation coefficients. Concomitant variability in the marine ice mass, ocean temperature and net radiation at the top of the atmospher...

Statistical detection of the mid-Pleistocene transition

Using statistical methods we have shown quantitatively that the transition in mean and variance observed inδ18O records during the middle of the Pleistocene was abrupt. By applying these methods to all of the available records spanning the entire Pleistocene it appears that this jump was global and primarily represents an increase in ice mass. At roughly the same time an abrupt decrease in sea surface temperature also occurred, indicative of sudden global cooling. This kind of evidence suggests a possible bifurcation of the climate system that must be accounted for in a complete explanation of the ice ages. Theoretical models including internal dynamics are capable of exhibiting this kind of rapid transition.

Reduction in northward incursions of the South Asian monsoon since ∼1400 AD inferred from a Mt. Everest ice core

[1]xa0A highly resolved Mt. Everest ice core reveals a decrease in marine and increase in continental air masses related to relatively high summer surface pressure over Mongolia, and reduction in northward incursions of the summer South Asian monsoon since ∼1400 AD. Previously published proxy records from lower sites south of the Himalayas indicate strengthening of the monsoon since this time. These regional differences are consistent with a south–north seesaw in convective activity in the Asian monsoon region, and reflect a southward shift in the mean summer position of the monsoon trough since ∼1400 AD. The change in monsoonal circulation at 1400 AD is synchronous with a reduction in solar irradiance and the onset of the LIA. This demonstrates a hemispheric scale circulation reorganization at this time, and the potential for future large shifts in monsoonal circulation.

A first-order global model of late Cenozoic climatic change

The development of a theory of the evolution of the climate of the earth over millions of years can be subdivided into three fundamental, nested, problems: (1) to establish by equilibrium climate models (e.g., general circulation models) the diagnostic relations, valid at any time, between the fast-response climate variables (i.e., the weather statistics) and both the prescribed external radiative forcing and the prescribed distribution of the slow response variables (e.g., the ice sheets and shelves, the deep ocean state, and the atmospheric CO2 concentration); (2) to construct, by an essentially inductive process, a model of the time-dependent evolution of the slow-response climatic variables over time scales longer than the damping times of these variables but shorter than the time scale of tectonic changes in the boundary conditions (e.g., altered geography and elevation of the continents, slow outgassing, and weathering) and ultra-slow astronomical changes such as in the solar radiative output; and (3) to determine the nature of these ultra-slow processes and their effects on the evolution of the equilibrium state of the climatic system about which the above time-dependent variations occur. All three problems are discussed in the context of the theory of the Quaternary climate, which will be incomplete unless it is embedded in a more general theory for the fuller Cenozoic that can accommodate the onset of the ice-age fluctuations. We construct a simple mathematical model for the Late Cenozoic climatic changes based on the hypothesis that forced and free variations of the concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases (notably CO2), coupled with changes in the deep ocean state and ice mass, under the additional pacemaking influence of earth-orbital forcing, are primary determinants of the climate state over this period. Our goal is to illustrate how a single model governing both very long term variations and higher frequency oscillatory variations in the Pleistocene can be formulated with relatively few adjustable parameters.

A wavelet analysis of Plio‐Pleistocene climate indicators: A new view of periodicity evolution

Wavelet analysis offers an alternative to Fourier based time-series analysis, and is particularly useful when the amplitudes and periods of dominant cycles are time dependent. We analyze climatic records derived from oxygen isotopic ratios of marine sediment cores with modified Morlet wavelets. We use a normalization of the Morlet wavelets which allows direct correspondence with Fourier analysis. This provides a direct view of the oscillations at various frequencies, and illustrates the nature of the time-dependence of the dominant cycles.

A 2000-year context for modern climate change

ABSTRACT. Although considerable attention has been paid to the record of temperature change over the last few centuries, the range and rate of change of atmospheric circulation and hydrology remain elusive. Here, eight latitudinally well‐distributed (pole‐equator‐pole), highly resolved (annual to decadal) climate proxy records are presented that demonstrate major changes in these variables over the last 2000 years. A comparison between atmospheric 14C and these changes in climate demonstrates a first‐order relationship between a variable Sun and climate. The relationship is seen on a global scale.

Glacial meltwater cooling of the Gulf of Mexico - GCM implications for Holocene and present-day climates

An atmospheric general circulation model, the NCAR CCM, has been used to investigate the possible effects that reduced Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures (SST) could have on regional and hemispheric climates. δ18O records and terrestrial evidence indicate at least two major glacial meltwater discharges into the Gulf of Mexico subsequent to the last glacial maximum. It is probable that these discharges reduced Gulf of Mexico SST. We have conducted three numerical experiments, with imposed gulf-wide SST coolings of 3°C, 6°C, and 12°C, and find in all three experiments significant reductions in the North Atlantic storm-track intensity, along with a strong decrease in transient eddy water vapor transport out of the Gulf of Mexico. Surface pressures are higher over the North Atlantic, indicating a reduction of the climatological Icelandic low. The region is generally cooler and drier, with a reduction in precipitation that agrees well with evidence from Greenland ice cores. Other statistically significant changes occur across the Northern Hemisphere, but vary between the three experiments. In particular, warmer, wetter conditions are found over Europe for both the 6°C and 12°C SST reductions, but cooler conditions are found for the 3°C reduction. This indicates a dependence, in both the sign and magnitude of the model response, on the magnitude of the imposed SST anomaly. The results suggest that the present-day North Atlantic storm track is dependent on warm Gulf of Mexico SST for much of its intensity. They also suggest that meltwater-induced coolings may help account, in part, for some of the climatic oscillations that occurred during the last glacial/interglacial transition.