Kyung-Min Nam

Global health and economic impacts of future ozone pollution

We assess the human health and economic impacts of projected 2000–2050 changes in ozone pollution using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis - Health Effects (EPPA-HE) model, in combination with results from the GEOS-Chem global tropospheric chemistry model of climate and chemistry effects of projected future emissions. We use EPPA-HE to assess the human health damages (including mortality and morbidity) caused by ozone pollution, and quantify their economic impacts in sixteen world regions. We compare the costs of ozone pollution under scenarios with 2000 and 2050 ozone precursor and greenhouse gas emissions (using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario). We estimate that health costs due to global ozone pollution above pre-industrial levels by 2050 will be

Valuing climate impacts in integrated assessment models: the MIT IGSM

580 billion (year 2000

City Size Distribution as a Function of Socioeconomic Conditions: An Eclectic Approach to Downscaling Global Population

) and that mortalities from acute exposure will exceed 2 million. We find that previous methodologies underestimate costs of air pollution by more than a third because they do not take into account the long-term, compounding effects of health costs. The economic effects of emissions changes far exceed the influence of climate alone.

Optimal Urban Population Size: National vs Local Economic Efficiency

We discuss a strategy for investigating the impacts of climate change on Earth’s physical, biological and human resources and links to their socio-economic consequences. As examples, we consider effects on agriculture and human health. Progress requires a careful understanding of the chain of physical changes—global and regional temperature, precipitation, ocean acidification, polar ice melting. We relate those changes to other physical and biological variables that help people understand risks to factors relevant to their daily lives—crop yield, food prices, premature death, flooding or drought events, land use change. Finally, we investigate how societies may adapt, or not, to these changes and how the combination of measures to adapt or to live with losses will affect the economy. Valuation and assessment of market impacts can play an important role, but we must recognize the limits of efforts to value impacts where deep uncertainty does not allow a description of the causal chain of effects that can be described, much less assigned a likelihood. A mixed approach of valuing impacts, evaluating physical and biological effects, and working to better describe uncertainties in the earth system can contribute to the social dialogue needed to achieve consensus on the level and type of mitigation and adaptation actions.

Spatio-temporal boundary effects on pollution-health costs estimation: the case of PM2.5 pollution in Hong Kong

This study introduces a new method of downscaling global population distribution. Its novelty is that it allows city size distributions to interact with socioeconomic variables. The contribution to the literature is twofold. One is a challenge to the conventional view that the proportionate growth dynamics underlies empirical rank–size regularities. It is shown that the city size distribution of a region can deviate substantially from a log-normal distribution with cross-regional and time variations, and that such variations can be explained by certain socioeconomic conditions that each region confronts at a particular time point. In addition, this study can pave the way for various research projects which need spatial distribution of global population at fine grid cell levels as key input. The model is applicable to the entire globe, including regions for which reliable sub-regional population datasets are limitedly available, and can be extended easily for predictive analysis.

Adaptation in cultural industry under conservation pressure: case study of two Chinese embroidery clusters

This paper explores whether the population size of the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA) in Korea is efficient in terms of the national economy. To undertake this analysis, a recursively dynamic interregional computable general equilibrium (ICGE) model with a population module is developed. In this model, the explicit costs and benefits of population growth are estimated by using the industrial value added and consumer price inflation functions for each region. The counter-factual analysis shows that national population decentralisation away from the SMA is desirable for Korea’s economic growth. Korea’s GDP is estimated to be maximised when the SMA’s national population share is at 39 per cent in the short term and 35 per cent in the long term. However, the SMA government is likely to have incentive to maintain its population at around 40 per cent of the national population, where per capita income at the regional, not national, level is maximised.

Need for Coordination between Greenhouse Gas and Pollution Abatement Regulations: China’s Case and Its Implications for Korea

ABSTRACT In this study, we estimate PM2.5-caused health costs in Hong Kong and examine spatio-temporal boundary effects on the estimated results. During the period between 2012 and 2016, mean annual welfare loss from PM2.5 pollution is estimated to be US

Health damages from air pollution in China

1.5–1.8 billion or 0.5%–0.7% of Hong Kong’s gross domestic product. Premature deaths associated with chronic exposure are the most important health endpoint, accounting for >95% of the total costs. The estimated results are subject to large spatio-temporal boundary effects. On the one hand, disregarding cross-district heterogeneity in air quality and socioeconomic conditions leads to a downward bias of up to 13%, due to spatial correlations among PM2.5 levels, district population, and household incomes. On the other hand, neglecting intra-year variations in PM2.5 concentrations results in overestimation of up to 18%, due to nonlinearity in concentration–response relationships. The estimation bias from coarse analysis units likely further increases in national or global studies, given the magnitude of the spatio-temporal variations involved at these levels.

Measuring welfare loss caused by air pollution in Europe: A CGE analysis

Abstract In this study, we explore how tension between ‘culture’ and ‘industry’ can be effectively dealt with in promoting cultural industry, taking the Chinese embroidery sector as an example. The diverging performance of two leading centers of Chinese embroidery production suggests that local adaptive and networking capabilities are essential in creating a new path out of the tension, and these capabilities are largely determined by local openness/flexibility, entrepreneurship, and linkage capacity. In Changsha, cultural conservatism prevails, and the local embroidery sector largely maintains traditional product styles and target customers, sticking to the historic path. It is in question, however, whether such a strong bias toward the high-culture segment of the industry is good for cultural heritage protection in the long run, given that the industry at standstill has faced increasing challenges in sustaining a solid local pool of skilled labor. In contrast, Suzhou’s local embroidery sector has actively responded to the changing market environment, through increased product segmentation and customization as well as intra/cross-industry collaboration. Such a flexible, scale-up strategy has helped the industry attract local talent and meet the market demand, while maintaining space for high-end artistic products.

Toward integrated assessment of environmental change: air pollution health effects in the USA

In this chapter, I briefly introduce my previous research on the carbon co-benefits of pollution abatement in China and then discuss what key lessons Korea can learn from it. A main finding is that strong cross effects exist between air pollution and carbon mitigation in China. In particular, China could even overachieve its official CO2 intensity targets, in terms of carbon reductions, by simply meeting the existing SO2 and NOx reduction goals. Accordingly, the CO2 intensity targets are not binding and generate unnecessary compliance costs. This result conveys several policy implications for Korea. First, local pollution abatement, given its strong cross effects, may be considered as a carbon mitigation strategy. However, taking full advantage of the cross effects—meeting emission reduction targets at minimal costs—requires a close coordination between air pollution and carbon regulations. Finally, clear and consistent long-term reduction goals and associated policy incentives are necessary to promote economy-wide, forward-looking technology adoption and thus to avoid the potential lock-in effect in energy supply.