Mai Utada

Solid Cancer Incidence among the Life Span Study of Atomic Bomb Survivors: 1958-2009

This is the third analysis of solid cancer incidence among the Life Span Study (LSS) cohort of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, adding eleven years of follow-up data since the previously reported analysis. For this analysis, several changes and improvements were implemented, including updated dose estimates (DS02R1) and adjustment for smoking. Here, we focus on all solid cancers in aggregate. The eligible cohort included 105,444 subjects who were alive and had no known history of cancer at the start of follow-up. A total of 80,205 subjects had individual dose estimates and 25,239 were not in either city at the time of the bombings. The follow-up period was 1958–2009, providing 3,079,484 person-years of follow-up. Cases were identified by linkage with population-based Hiroshima and Nagasaki Cancer Registries. Poisson regression methods were used to elucidate the nature of the radiation-associated risks per Gy of weighted absorbed colon dose using both excess relative risk (ERR) and excess absolute risk (EAR) models adjusted for smoking. Risk estimates were reported for a person exposed at age 30 years with attained age of 70 years. In this study, 22,538 incident first primary solid cancer cases were identified, of which 992 were associated with radiation exposure. There were 5,918 cases (26%) that occurred in the 11 years (1999–2009) since the previously reported study. For females, the dose response was consistent with linearity with an estimated ERR of 0.64 per Gy (95% CI: 0.52 to 0.77). For males, significant upward curvature over the full dose range as well as restricted dose ranges was observed and therefore, a linear-quadratic model was used, which resulted in an ERR of 0.20 (95% CI: 0.12 to 0.28) at 1 Gy and an ERR of 0.010 (95% CI: −0.0003 to 0.021) at 0.1 Gy. The shape of the ERR dose response was significantly different among males and females (P = 0.02). While there was a significant decrease in the ERR with increasing attained age, this decrease was more rapid in males compared to females. The lowest dose range that showed a statistically significant dose response using the sex-averaged, linear ERR model was 0–100 mGy (P = 0.038). In conclusion, this analysis demonstrates that solid cancer risks remain elevated more than 60 years after exposure. Sex-averaged upward curvature was observed in the dose response independent of adjustment for smoking. Findings from the current analysis regarding the dose-response shape were not fully consistent with those previously reported, raising unresolved questions. At this time, uncertainties in the shape of the dose response preclude definitive conclusions to confidently guide radiation protection policies. Upcoming results from a series of analyses focusing on the radiation risks for specific organs or organ families, as well as continued follow-up are needed to fully understand the nature of radiation-related cancer risk and its public health significance. Data and analysis scripts are available for download at: http://www.rerf.or.jp.

Long-term Trends in Incidence and Mortality of Intrahepatic and Extrahepatic Bile Duct Cancer in Japan

Background A report of multiple cases of bile duct cancer at a Japanese printing company raised concern about such cancers. We examined long-term trends in bile duct cancer in Japan. Methods Data from 4 population-based cancer registries were used to calculate incidence between 1985 and 2007, and vital statistics were used to estimate mortality between 1985 and 2011. Age-standardized rates were calculated and analyzed using a joinpoint regression model. Results Among men, the incidence rate of intrahepatic bile duct cancer increased throughout the observation period; among women, it increased until 1996–1998 and remained stable thereafter. The incidence rate of extrahepatic bile duct cancer was stable in men and decreased from 1993–1995 in women. In people aged 30 to 49 years, the incidence rates of intra- and extrahepatic bile duct cancer remained stable or decreased. The mortality rate of intrahepatic bile duct cancer increased in both sexes and in all age groups since 1996, while that of extrahepatic bile duct cancer decreased since 1992. In people aged 30 to 49 years, the mortality rates of intra- and extrahepatic bile duct cancer remained stable and decreased, respectively. Conclusions The incidence and mortality rates of intrahepatic bile duct cancer remained stable or increased throughout the observation period. The incidence rate of extrahepatic bile duct cancer remained stable or decreased, and the mortality rate decreased since 1992. In people aged 30 to 49 years, the incidence and mortality rates of intra- and extrahepatic bile cancer remained stable or decreased.

Incidence of multiple primary cancers and interval between first and second primary cancers

In this retrospective study, we aimed to clarify the risk of developing a second primary cancer and to determine the periods of high risk of second primary cancers. Subjects were all patients who had been diagnosed with a first primary cancer and registered with the Nagasaki Prefecture Cancer Registry between 1985 and 2007. We calculated the standardized incidence ratio (SIR) of second primary cancer according to site and years after diagnosis of the first primary cancer. A second primary cancer developed in 14 167 of 174 477 subjects (8.1%) during a median follow‐up of 1.8 years. The SIR of all cancer was 1.10 (95% confidence interval, 1.08–1.11). Some specific relationships were observed between sites with risk factors in common, such as smoking, drinking, and hormone status. The SIRs were relatively high after approximately 10 years for all sites, and trends differ among cancer sites. We showed that cancer patients are at higher risk of a second primary cancer than the general population. In respect of the risk of a second primary cancer, physicians should be alert for cancers that have risk factors in common with the first primary cancer.

Risk of bile duct cancer among printing workers exposed to 1,2-dichloropropane and/or dichloromethane

Risk of bile duct cancer among printing workers exposed to 1,2‐dichloropropane and/or dichloromethane: Tomotaka Sobue, et al. Department of Environmental Medicine and Population Sciences, Graduate School of Medicine, Osaka University

Comparison between Overall, Cause-specific, and Relative Survival Rates Based on Data from a Population-based Cancer Registry

Three kinds of survival rates are generally used depending on the purpose of the investigation: overall, cause-specific, and relative. The differences among these 3 survival rates are derived from their respective formulas; however, reports based on actual cancer registry data are few because of incomplete information and short follow-up duration recorded on cancer registration. The aim of this study was to numerically and visually compare these 3 survival rates on the basis of data from the Nagasaki Prefecture Cancer Registry. Subjects were patients diagnosed with cancer and registered in the registry between 1999 and 2003. We calculated the proportion of cause of death and 5-year survival rates. For lung, liver, or advanced stage cancers, the proportions of cancer-related death were high and the differences in survival rates were small. For prostate or early stage cancers, the proportions of death from other causes were high and the differences in survival rates were large. We concluded that the differences among the 3 survival rates increased when the proportion of death from other causes increased.

A randomised controlled trial of the resistive heating blanket versus the convective warming system for preventing hypothermia during major abdominal surgery.

We compared resistive heating (RH) and upper-body convective warming (CW) in 70 patients (RH 33, CW 31, 6 excluded) undergoing major abdominal surgery. The effect of RH was not inferior to that of CW for the time-weighted average core temperature, and the lower limit of 95% CW was greater than −0.5°C. Resistive heating showed no inferiority in maintaining core temperature compared with convective warming.

Cancer incidence and mortality in Osaka, Japan: future trends estimation with an age-period-cohort model.

In previous studies we predicted future trends in cancer incidence for each prefecture in order to plan cancer control. Those predictions, however, did not take into account the characteristics of each prefecture. We therefore used the results of age-period-cohort analysis of incidence and mortality data of Osaka, and estimated the incidence and mortality of cancers at all sites and selected sites. The results reflect the characteristics of Osaka, which has and is expected to have large number of patients with liver cancer. We believe our results to be useful for planning and evaluating cancer control activities in Osaka. It would be worthwhile to base the estimation of cancer incidence and mortality in each prefecture on each population-based cancer registry.

Initial Report for the Radiation Effects Research Foundation F1 Mail Survey

To study the full health effects of parental radiation exposure on the children of the atomic bomb survivors, the Radiation Effects Research Foundation developed a cohort of 76,814 children born to atomic bomb survivors (F1 generation) to assess cancer incidence and mortality from common adult diseases. In analyzing radiationassociated health information, it is important to be able to adjust for sociodemographic and lifestyle variations that may affect health. In order to gain this and other background information on the F1 cohort and to determine willingness to participate in a related clinical study, the F1 Mail Survey Questionnaire was designed with questions corresponding to relevant health, sociodemographic, and lifestyle indicators. Between the years 2000 and 2006, the survey was sent to a subset of the F1 Mortality Cohort. A total of 16,183 surveys were completed and returned: 10,980 surveys from Hiroshima residents and 5,203 from Nagasaki residents. The response rate was 65.6%, varying somewhat across parental exposure category, city, gender, and year of birth. Differences in health and lifestyle were noted in several variables on comparison across city and gender. No major differences in health, lifestyle, sociodemographics, or disease were seen across parental exposure categories, though statistically significant tests for heterogeneity and linear trend revealed some possible changes with dose. The data described herein provide a foundation for studies in the future.

Predicting Preoperative Hemodynamic Changes Using the Visual Analog Scale

PURPOSE This study aimed to investigate how both visual analog scale cutoff scores and State-Trait Anxiety Inventory scores relate to hemodynamic changes in patients entering the operating theater. DESIGN A prospective observational study. METHODS The study subjects included 130 prospectively enrolled patients who were scheduled for abdominal surgery under combined epidural-general anesthesia and who underwent preoperative anxiety level measurements using both scales. FINDINGS The heart rate and systolic blood pressure on entering the operating theater were significantly higher than those at baseline in the high and low/moderate anxiety groups. Variations in heart rate and systolic blood pressure were significantly higher, whereas peripheral blood flow was significantly lower in the high anxiety group compared with the low/moderate anxiety group. CONCLUSIONS Using the visual analog scale to measure anxiety can improve our understanding of the hemodynamic changes that occur when patients enter the operating theater.