Antônio Carvalho Campos

The dynamics of farm milk price formation in Brazil

Dairy is a highly relevant segment of the Brazilian agribusiness economy. However, this segment has changed significantly after deregulation Thus, it is worthwhile to know what the changes are in the spatial integration of the market and in milk price formation at the farm level after deregulation. The methodology is a modification of Gonzalez-Rivera & Helfand (2001), which is compounded in extension of the market, pattern of integration, and degree of integration. The extension of the market is determined through the measure of self-sufficiency index, unit root test, and Johansen test. The last one is focused on the searching for a common trend between the time series. The pattern of interdependence is studied using the Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG). Lastly, the degree of integration is measured by the impulse response functions derived from the Bernanke decomposition. As a result, we found that the milk market in Brazil is composed by Goias, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais, Parana, Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, and Sao Paulo. We also discovered that these markets have small speed of adjustment to shocks and there is no leader in milk price formation.

Determinantes dos investimentos diretos estrangeiros no Brasil, 1980-2004

Este trabalho teve o objetivo de investigar em que medidas o ingresso dos Investimentos Diretos Estrangeiros (IDE) no Brasil respondeu as mudancas nos niveis de seus principais determinantes no periodo de 1980 a 2004. Apos identificar que as series estudadas eram nao estacionarias, optou-se pela utilizacao do conceito de co-integracao, sendo estimado um Modelo de Correcao de Erros Vetorial (Vec Model). Os coeficientes estimados foram estatisticamente significativos e apresentaram os sinais esperados. Constatou-se que as variaveis as quais o ingresso de IDE apresentou maior sensibilidade sao o risco-Brasil, o grau de abertura comercial da economia e a taxa de inflacao brasileira.

Investimento direto estrangeiro e o desempenho das exportações brasileiras

Brazil, in the 1990s, assumed a remarkable position as a host of foreign direct investment. It is worth mentioning that the service sector received the highest proportion of foreign investment. This market seeking strategy was responsible for the growth of the Brazilian imports. The results are confirmed by the performance of foreign enterprises into different groups of activities. Those enterprises with majority of foreign capital have increased their imports the most from 1995 to 2000. Therefore, during the 1995-2000 period, this study does not support the view that foreign investment has directly improved the performance of the Brazilian exporting sector.

The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Brazil and Mexico: An Empirical Analysis☆

Abstract This paper analyzes the foreign direct investment determinants in Brazil and Mexico during the period 1990 to 2010, in order to identify common and divergent characteristics that affect FDIs attraction. For this purpose, it was constructed an analytical model estimated using the Vector Error Correction Model (VEC). From the results, it was noted that in Brazil the main multinationals’ strategy is the market seeking - linked to the size of the domestic market-, and, in Mexico, the dominant strategy seems to be efficiency seeking, related to the importance of trade liberalization and the historical flows to attract FDI.

Impactos dos subsídios agrícolas dos Estados Unidos na expansão do agronegócio brasileiro

In the forums of multilateral negotiations of the World Trade Organization (WTO) there has been a strong debate which tries to eliminate the agricultural subventions in the developed countries. However, the United States has increased the amount of these subsidies causing distortions in the world agricultural trade. Therefore, the purpose of this research has been to evaluate these American subsidies impacts (Loan Deficiency Payments) given between 2002 and 2007 upon the Brazilian agribusiness growth. The findings allow to deduce that the reduction of the subsidies in the United States might promote the growth of the Brazilian agribusiness production and might produce trade surplus in the trade balance in this sector as well as the growth of both exports and imports. Hence the cuts in these subsidies would contribute to a bigger competitiveness of the Brazilian exports and would generate opportunities to the agribusiness growth.

Choques na taxa de câmbio real e o saldo da balança comercial agropecuária brasileira: evidências da Curva J entre 1994 e 2007

The aim of this work is to analyze the effect of shocks in the real exchange rate in long and short-run on the Brazilian agricultural trade balance after the deployment of Plano Real. The used methodological framework was an application of Johansen’s (1991) multivariate analysis. Results indicate that two relations of long-run exist between the agricultural trade balance and the domestic income regarding the foreign income and variations in the real exchange rate. It was verified that, in the long-run, an increase of 1% in the exchange rate and in the external income leads respectively to an expansion of 2.04% and 1.95% in the trade balance. Our empirical findings reveal that the Marshall-Lerner condition holds that, in the long-run, the quantum effects must surpass price effects, increasing the trade balance. However, in the short-run, the hypothesis of an existence of the J Curve was rejected.

Modelos de cointegração com um ou dois limiares: uma aplicação para o preço do frango inteiro resfriado em mercados atacadistas no Brasil

A maioria dos estudos de integracao de mercados que utiliza a tecnica de cointegracao com threshold nao se preocupa em testar qual o numero de regimes de ajustamento de precos e o mais adequado. Neste estudo, utiliza-se um procedimento para determinar o numero de regimes estatisticamente indicado para diferentes mercados regionais de carne de frango no Brasil, no periodo de janeiro de 1998 a junho de 2007. Os resultados mostram que, para um grupo de mercados, o modelo com dois regimes e o mais indicado, enquanto para os demais mercados, o modelo com tres regimes e o que melhor se ajusta. Constata-se a presenca de significativas barreiras a transmissao de choques de precos entre os mercados, o que provavelmente resulta de custos de transacao nao despreziveis na comercializacao da carne de frango......Most studies about market integration that use threshold cointegration do not usually test the number of regimes of price adjustment. In this study, we use a testing procedure to determine the number of statistically significant regimes for regional markets of poultry in Brazil in the period of January 1998 to June 2007. Results show that, for some markets, two regimes are adequate, whereas for others, the model should have three regimes. We also conclude that there are important barriers to price transmission among the markets which may come from the existence of high transaction costs regarding trades involving poultry.

TRANSMISSÃO INTER-REGIONAL DE PREÇOS NO MERCADO BRASILEIRO DE SOJA

This study estimates the price transmission elasticities between pairs of soybean prices for the states of Mato Grosso and Parana; Mato Grosso and Rio Grande do Sul; and Parana and Rio Grande do Sul in order to test the validity of the Law of One Price among those markets. The data correspond to the monthly average soybean prices for those states, extracted from the Center of Advanced Studies for Applied Economy (CEPEA) of ESALQ / USP, over the January, 2001 to February, 2008 period. The analytical framework includes tests for unitary root and Johansen´s co-integration, the estimation of impulse-response function, the decomposition of the variance of the forecasting error and the vector error correction model (VEC). The results indicate that the variations of prices in the long run, occurred in Rio Grande do Sul, are almost fully transmitted to the soybean prices in Parana and Mato Grosso. Thus, those markets could be considered perfectly integrated if the hypothesis test of perfect integration between those markets was rejected under the restrictions imposed on the relationship coefficient in the long run. Therefore, the Law of the One Price was not perfectly validated for those soybean markets.

DETERMINANTES DAS EXPORTAÇÕES AGROPECUÁRIAS BRASILEIRAS E SUA RELAÇÃO COM O INVESTIMENTO DIRETO ESTRANGEIRO

The present study aims to evaluate the relationship of interdependence between the Brazilian agricultural exports, foreign direct investment in the agricultural export sector, world income and the exchange rate, and to identify which of these variables has really influenced the performance ofBrazils agricultural exports. For this, we estimated a standard VAR model, from which was conducted the Granger Causality Test and the variance decomposition of forecast error. The analysis shows that the foreign income is an important part of the variance of the Brazilian agricultural exports, FDI in the sector has not obtained a relevant participation and that the exchange rate variable, through their effects on foreign income, had an indirect influence on agricultural exports. These results converge on the importance of direct foreign capital inflow, in the agricultural sector, be directed to create infrastructure and new production units, not allowing that the entry of foreign investment in this sector continues to be characterized as a process of internationalization of production of certain agroindustrial chains.

TRANSMISSÃO DE PREÇOS ENTRE MERCADOS REGIONAIS DE CARNE DE FRANGO NO BRASIL

Custos de transacao nao-despreziveis restringem a transmissao de choques de precos entre mercados. O objetivo deste trabalho foi analisar os efeitos desses custos sobre o processo de transmissao de precos no mercado brasileiro de carne de frango inteiro resfriado, no periodo de 1998 a 2007, por meio da tecnica Threshold Cointegration. Os resultados indicam presenca de significativas barreiras a transmissao de precos entre os mercados, as quais, provavelmente, surgem em decorrencia dos custos de transacao. Periodo relativamente longo de tempo e necessario para que os choques de precos sejam eliminados. Constatou-se, tambem, que o processo de transmissao de precos era assimetrico.