Margaret Singh

Energy and Environmental Impacts of Electric Vehicle Battery Production and Recycling

Electric vehicle batteries use energy and generate environmental residuals when they are produced and recycled. This study estimates, for 4 selected battery types (advanced lead-acid, sodium-sulfur, nickel-cadmium, and nickel-metal hydride), the impacts of production and recycling of the materials used in electric vehicle batteries. These impacts are compared, with special attention to the locations of the emissions. It is found that the choice among batteries for electric vehicles involves tradeoffs among impacts. For example, although the nickel-cadmium and nickel-metal hydride batteries are similar, energy requirements for production of the cadmium electrodes may be higher than those for the metal hydride electrodes, but the latter may be more difficult to recycle.

Oil Independence: Achievable National Goal or Empty Slogan?

Oil independence has been a goal of U.S. energy policy for the past 30 years, yet the term has never been rigorously defined. A rigorous, measurable definition is proposed: to reduce the costs of oil dependence to less than 1% of gross domestic product in the next 20 to 25 years, with 95% probability. A simulation model incorporating the possibility of oil supply disruptions and other sources of uncertainty is used to test whether two alternative energy policy strategies—business as usual (BAU) and an interpretation of the strategy proposed by the National Commission on Energy Policy (NCEP)—can achieve oil independence for the United States. BAU does not produce oil independence. The augmented NCEP strategy comes close to achieving oil independence for the U.S. economy within the next 20 to 25 years, but more effort is needed to achieve full independence. The success of the strategy appears to be robust regardless of how the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries responds to it. Expected annual savings are estimated to exceed

Total Energy Cycle Energy Use and Emissions of Electric Vehicles

250 billion per year by 2030.

ASSESSMENT OF CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS FOR ALTERNATIVE FUELS INFRASTRUCTURE UNDER THE PARTNERSHIP FOR A NEW GENERATION OF VEHICLES PROGRAM

A total energy cycle analysis (TECA) of electric vehicles (EVs) was recently completed. The EV energy cycle includes production and transport of fuels used in power plants to generate electricity, electricity generation required to charge EV batteries, EV operation, and vehicle and battery manufacture. The key assumptions and results of the EVTECA are summarized. The total energy requirements of EVs are estimated to be 24 to 35 percent lower than those of the conventional, gasoline-fueled vehicles that they replace, whereas the reductions in total oil use are even greater: 55 to 85 percent. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are 24 to 37 percent lower with EVs. EVs reduce total emissions of several criteria air pollutants [volatile organic compounds (VOCs), carbon monoxide (CO), and nitrogen oxides] but increase total emissions of others [sulfur oxide (SOx), total suspended particulates, and lead] over the total energy cycle. Regional emissions except possibly those of SOx are generally reduced with EVs. The limitations of the EVTECA are discussed, and its results are compared with those of other evaluations of EVs. In general, many of the results (particularly the results for oil use, GHGs, VOCs, CO, SOx, and lead) of the analysis are consistent with those of other evaluations.

Multi-path transportation futures study: Results from Phase 1

An assessment of the capital requirements associated with six different fuels in light-duty vehicles being developed by the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles to achieve tripled fuel economy is presented. The six fuels include two petroleum-based fuels (reformulated gasoline and low-sulfur diesel) and four alternative fuels (methanol, ethanol, dimethyl ether, and hydrogen). Estimates of the cumulative capital needs for establishing fuel production and distribution infrastructure to accommodate the fuel needs of tripled fuel economy (3X) vehicles are developed. Two levels of fuel volume—11 000 m3 (70,000 barrels) per day and 254 000 m3 (1.6 million barrels) per day—were established for meeting 3X-vehicle fuel demand. As expected, infrastructure capital needs for the high fuel demand level are much higher than for the low fuel demand level. Between fuel production infrastructure and distribution infrastructure, capital needs for the former far exceed those for the latter. Among the four alternative fuels, hydrogen bears the largest capital needs for production and distribution infrastructure.

What FutureCar MPG Levels and Technology Will be Necessary

Presentation reporting Phase 1 results, 3/9/2007. Projecting the future role of advanced drivetrains and fuels in the light vehicle market is inherently difficult, given the uncertainty (and likely volatility) of future oil prices, inadequate understanding of likely consumer response to new technologies, the relative infancy of several important new technologies with inevitable future changes in their performance and costs, and the importance — and uncertainty — of future government marketplace interventions (e.g., new regulatory standards or vehicle purchase incentives). The Multi-Path Transportation Futures (MP) Study has attempted to improve our understanding of this future role by examining several scenarios of vehicle costs, fuel prices, government subsidies, and other key factors. These are projections, not forecasts, in that they try to answer a series of “what if” questions without assigning probabilities to most of the basic assumptions.

ISSUES AND COSTS ASSOCIATED WITH TRANSITION TO ALTERNATIVE TRANSPORTATION FUELS AND VEHICLES

The potential peaking of world conventional oil production and the possible imperative to reduce carbon emissions will put great pressure on vehicle manufacturers to produce more efficient vehicles, on vehicle buyers to seek them out in the marketplace, and on energy suppliers to develop new fuels and delivery systems. Four cases for stabilizing or reducing light vehicle fuel use, oil use, and/or carbon emissions over the next 50 years are presented. Case 1--Improve mpg so that the fuel use in 2020 is stabilized for the next 30 years. Case 2--Improve mpg so that by 2030 the fuel use is reduced to the 2000 level and is reduced further in subsequent years. Case 3--Case 1 plus 50% ethanol use and 50% low-carbon fuel cell vehicles by 2050. Case 4--Case 2 plus 50% ethanol use and 50% low-carbon fuel cell vehicles by 2050. The mpg targets for new cars and light trucks require that significant advances be made in developing cost-effective and very efficient vehicle technologies. With the use of alternative fuels that are low in carbon, oil use and carbon emissions can be reduced even further.

Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study: Vehicle Characterization and Scenario Analyses. Appendix E. Other NEMS-MP Results or the Base Case and Scenarios

Key issues and barriers that must be overcome for the successful introduction of alternative-fuel vehicles are summarized. A host of market and institutional barriers faced by vehicle purchasers, vehicle manufacturers, fuel suppliers, and the vehicle service industry are broadly described. Although specific estimates of the costs of overcoming these barriers are highly uncertain, an initial estimate of the general magnitude of these transition costs is presented. This is done by analyzing the transition to a specific alternative-fuel vehicle market penetration for the year 2010. Transition costs are shown to be substantial.

Regional Analysis of Potential Impacts of Electric and Hybrid Vehicles on Electric Utilities

This appendix examines additional findings beyond the primary results reported in the report for Phase 2 of the Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study.

Feebates, rebates and gas-guzzler taxes: a study of incentives for increased fuel economy

This paper analyzes the impact of electric and hybrid vehicle (EHV) charging requirements on electric utilities. The impact for the five EHV scenarios examined generally is small, with total EHV electricity consumption in the HIGH scenarios representing approx. 3% of projected US electricity demand in 2000. However, in several areas, EHV electricity consumption in the HIGH scenarios represents a sizable fraction of electricity demand in 2000 and would have to be included in utility planning. Based on 1979 fuel prices, the total marginal cost of electricity (excluding taxes) for off-peak EHV charging ranges from