Mark Pelling

Small island developing states: natural disaster vulnerability and global change

Abstract This paper sets out an examination of natural disaster amongst small island developing states (SIDS), and presents a framework for assessing the interaction of global pressures and local dynamics in the production of human vulnerability. Change at the global level is found to be a source of new opportunities as well as constraints on building local resilience to natural disaster. Much depends on the orientation of the state in global economic and political systems. The United Nations is a key global actor with relevance to shaping vulnerabilityin island states, and the impact of the UN Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction is reviewed. It is concluded that this is a critical time for SIDS which must contend with ongoing developmental pressures in addition to growing pressures from risks associated with global environmental change and economic liberalisation that threaten their physical and economic security.

Shadow spaces for social learning: a relational understanding of adaptive capacity to climate change within organisations

Recent UK government policy on climate change, and wider policy movement within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, emphasise the building of adaptive capacity. But what are the institutional constraints that shape capacity to build adaptive organisations? The authors synthesise theory from social learning and institutional aspects of multilevel environmental governance to help unpack the patterns of individual and collective action within organisations that can enhance or restrict organisational adaptive capacity in the face of abrupt climate change. Theoretical synthesis is grounded by empirical work with a local dairy farmers group and two supporting public sector bodies that are both local actors in their own rights and which also shape the operating environment for other local actors (the Environment Agency and the Welsh Assembly and Assembly-sponsored public bodies). Providing space within and between local organisations for individuals to develop private as well as officially sanctioned social relationships is supported as a pathway to enable social learning. It is also a resource for adaptation that requires little financial investment but does call for a rethinking of the personal skills and working routines that are incentivised within organisations.

Framing vulnerability, risk and societal responses: the MOVE framework

The paper deals with the development of a general as well as integrative and holistic framework to systematize and assess vulnerability, risk and adaptation. The framework is a thinking tool meant as a heuristic that outlines key factors and different dimensions that need to be addressed when assessing vulnerability in the context of natural hazards and climate change. The approach underlines that the key factors of such a common framework are related to the exposure of a society or system to a hazard or stressor, the susceptibility of the system or community exposed, and its resilience and adaptive capacity. Additionally, it underlines the necessity to consider key factors and multiple thematic dimensions when assessing vulnerability in the context of natural and socio-natural hazards. In this regard, it shows key linkages between the different concepts used within the disaster risk management (DRM) and climate change adaptation (CCA) research. Further, it helps to illustrate the strong relationships between different concepts used in DRM and CCA. The framework is also a tool for communicating complexity and stresses the need for societal change in order to reduce risk and to promote adaptation. With regard to this, the policy relevance of the framework and first results of its application are outlined. Overall, the framework presented enhances the discussion on how to frame and link vulnerability, disaster risk, risk management and adaptation concepts.

Disaster politics: tipping points for change in the adaptation of sociopolitical regimes

Calls from the climate change community and a more widespread concern for human security have reawakened the interest of geographers and others in disaster politics. A legacy of geographical research on the political causes and consequences of disaster is reviewed and built on to formulate a framework for the analysis of post-disaster political space. This is constructed around the notion of a contested social contract. The Marmara earthquake, Turkey, is used to illustrate the framework and provide empirical detail on the multiple scales and time phasing of post-disaster political change. Priorities for a future research agenda in disaster politics are proposed.

From Resilience to Transformation: the Adaptive Cycle in Two Mexican Urban Centers

Climate change is but one expression of the internal contradictions of capitalism that include also economic inequality and political alienation. Seen in this way analysis of human responses to climate change must engage with social relations of power. We explore the potential for resilience theory to meet this challenge by applying a framework that integrates the adaptive cycle heuristic and structuration theory to place power at the heart of the analysis and question the transformational qualities of social systems facing climate change. This theoretical frame is applied to Mahahual and Playa del Carmen, two rapidly expanding towns on Mexicos Caribbean coast. The resilience lens is successful in highlighting internal contradictions that maintain social relations of rigidity above flexibility in the existing governance regimes and development pathway. This generates a set of reinforcing institutions and actions that support the status quo while simultaneously undermining long-term flexibility, equitable and sustainable development. One outcome is the placing of limits on scope for adaptation and mitigation to climate change which are externalized from everyday life and development planning alike.

Adaptation and transformation

Transformation as an adaptive response to climate change opens a range of novel policy options. Used to describe responses that produce non-linear changes in systems or their host social and ecological environments, transformation also raises distinct ethical and procedural questions for decision-makers. Expanding adaptation to include transformation foregrounds questions of power and preference that have so far been underdeveloped in adaptation theory and practice. We build on David Harvey’s notion of activity space to derive a framework and research agenda for climate change adaptation seen as a political decision-point and as an opportunity for transformation, incremental adjustment or resistance to change in development pathway. Decision-making is unpacked through the notion of the activity space into seven coevolving sites: the individual, technology, livelihoods, discourse, behaviour, the environment and institutions. The framework is tested against practitioner priorities to define an agenda that can make coherent advances in research and practice on climate change adaptation.

Participation, social capital and vulnerability to urban flooding in Guyana

The tension between international agencies, national and local institutions of the Global South has received much recent attention. This paper contributes to the debate by contrasting contemporary participatory models of management for the built environment with local experience of social capacity building and vulnerability to local flooding. It draws on field data collected in 1995-96 and is set within the contexts of recent structural adjustment and democratisation in Guyana. Identified vulnerabilities to flood hazard reveal that social and political assets play key roles in shaping access to local, national and international resources for environmental management. Despite recent structural reforms, and a rhetoric of participatory democracy, it is found that marginalized groups with limited social resources (women, children, the aged, the economically poor, petty-agriculturalists and squatters) continue to be excluded from local participatory decision-making in environmental management, and that the top-down construction of community has enabled local and national political elites to capture institutional structures designed to facilitate local empowerment and sustainable environmental management in coastal Guyana.

The political ecology of flood hazard in urban Guyana

Abstract Some 90% of the Guyanese population are at risk from contemporary flood hazard and the potential impacts of climate change and sea-level rise. Such risks are not the product of physical systems alone, and by using a political ecology frame the geography of flood hazard in urban environments can be seen to coevolve with political, social and economic systems. These systems are explored by a historical review which traces the roots of present vulnerability to the colonial experience, and an analysis of contemporary vulnerabilities which draws from a peri-urban and an urban case study. The case studies show that the current fashion in international donor agencies to fund ‘community sponsored development’ has missed an opportunity to enhance security through grassroots empowerment, and rather that those community organisations associated with this system have been co-opted by political elites reproducing embedded distributions of power and vulnerability.

From everyday hazards to disasters: the accumulation of risk in urban areas

Many disasters take place in urban areas, affecting millions of people each year through loss of life, serious injury and loss of assets and livelihoods. Poorer groups are generally most affected. The impact of these disasters and their contribution to poverty are underestimated, as is the extent to which rapidly growing and poorly managed urban development increases the risks. But urban specialists do not see disasters and disaster prevention as being within their remit. At the same time, few national and international disaster agencies have worked with urban governments and community organizations to identify and act on the urban processes that cause the accumulation of disaster risk in and around urban areas. This paper summarizes the discussions from a workshop funded by UNDP on the links between disasters and urban development in Africa, highlighting the underestimation of the number and scale of urban disasters, and the lack of attention to the role of urban governance. It notes the difficulties in getting action in Africa, since the region’s problems are still perceived as “rural” by disaster and development specialists, even though two-fifths of its population live in urban areas. It emphasizes the need for an understanding of risk that encompasses events ranging from disasters to everyday hazards and which understands the linkages between them – in particular, how identifying and acting on risks from “small” disasters can reduce risks from larger ones. It also stresses the importance of integrating such an understanding into poverty reduction strategies.

Positioning resilience for 2015: the role of resistance, incremental adjustment and transformation in disaster risk management policy

Resilience is a ubiquitous term in disaster risk management and is an increasingly prominent concept in early discussions focused on elaborating the post-2015 international policy landscape. Riddled with competing meanings and diverse policy implications, however, it is a concept caught between the abstract and operational. This paper provides a review of the rise to prominence of the concept of resilience and advances an elaboration of the related concepts of resistance, incremental adjustment and transformation. We argue that these concepts can contribute to decision-making by offering three distinct options for risk management policy. In order to deliberately and effectively choose among these options, we suggest that critical reflexivity is a prerequisite, necessitating improved decision-making capacity if varied perspectives (including those of the most vulnerable) are to be involved in the selection of the best approach to risk management.