Matthias Garschagen

Enhancing the Relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Research

This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social–environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance.

Scenarios for vulnerability: opportunities and constraints in the context of climate change and disaster risk

Most scientific assessments for climate change adaptation and risk reduction are based on scenarios for climatic change. Scenarios for socio-economic development, particularly in terms of vulnerability and adaptive capacity, are largely lacking. This paper focuses on the utility of socio-economic scenarios for vulnerability, risk and adaptation research. The paper introduces the goals and functions of scenarios in general and reflects on the current global debate around shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). It examines the options and constraints of scenario methods for risk and vulnerability assessments in the context of climate change and natural hazards. Two case studies are used to contrast the opportunities and current constraints in scenario methods at different scales: the global WorldRiskIndex, based on quantitative data and indicators; and a local participatory scenario development process in Jakarta, showing a qualitative approach. The juxtaposition of a quantitative approach with global data and a qualitative-participatory local approach provides new insights on how different methods and scenario techniques can be applied in vulnerability and risk research.

Exploring the relationships between urbanization trends and climate change vulnerability

There is increasing scientific and political interest in the links between urbanization and human vulnerability to climate change. However, our literature review shows that the existing scholarship has largely focused on exposure resulting from urbanization, while other dimensions of urban vulnerability such as sensitivity or capacity to cope and adapt have been insufficiently represented or understood. Furthermore, most attention has been given to the negative effects of urbanization, while opportunities for vulnerability reduction have been underemphasized. Therefore, this paper takes a broader perspective to explore key relationships between urbanization, economic development and socio-economic vulnerability on a global scale. Using data with national resolution, we applied a clustering approach to identify ten country groups sharing similar patterns of urbanization and national income. We then explored associations between these country groups and selected indicators of exposure, sensitivity, coping capacity, and adaptive capacity drawing upon data from the World Risk Index. Our findings suggest that countries with rapid urbanization and economic transformation face significant challenges with respect to sensitivity and the lack of capacities. Additionally, these challenges tend to be greater the lower the income of the respective country. Yet, at the same time, urbanization can be a main driver for enhancing response capacity. The analysis suggests that urbanization can, hence, have nuanced effects on overall vulnerability. We argue that climate change science needs to be more balanced in terms of acknowledging and examining the different possible pathways of vulnerability effects related to urbanization. The country group analysis can provide a first entry point.

Resilience and organisational institutionalism from a cross-cultural perspective: an exploration based on urban climate change adaptation in Vietnam

Resilience theory has gained considerable prominence with regard to the management of social-ecological systems and more recently climate change adaptation. Yet, how resilience is precisely understood, how its institutionalisation works and how organisations can operationalise principles for achieving resilience often remains vague. Therefore, the paper explores how institutional and organisational theory can enhance the understanding on resilience. Linking organisational institutionalism to resilience theory, the paper analyses in particular how resilience thinking can diffuse and translate into organisational action, and which challenges and barriers may exist. Empirical research on formal urban climate change adaptation in Vietnam is used to explore the important role of distinctive institutional features in a given culture, region or sector for shaping this process. It is argued that such context-specific institutional framework conditions are often underemphasised, thereby, hampering the transferability as well as operationalisation and implementation of resilience propositions. Relevant aspects include epistemological, ontological and normative dimensions. Linking the case study to neoinstitutional theory, recommendations are developed for increasing the intercultural transferability of resilience thinking into organisational practices.

Boost resilience of small and mid-sized cities

Smaller settlements are growing faster than megacities — and they need more protection from extreme events, write Joern Birkmann and colleagues.

Socio-Economic Development in the Mekong Delta: Between the Prospects for Progress and the Realms of Reality

Socio-economic development in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta is shaped by a complex web of interacting and dynamic trends. Based on the analysis of statistical data, special reports, planning documents and scientific literature, the chapter examines the key dimensions of such trends, paying particular attention to agricultural transformation, industrialization, migration and urbanization. It is argued that changes in these fields have been producing ambiguous economic net-effects and socially stratified development outcomes over the last decades. On the one hand, the agricultural sector in the Mekong Delta has been experiencing profound production gains due to de-collectivization, expansion, intensification and diversification. This has contributed to overall poverty reduction in the Delta and to the economic progress of the entire country. On the other hand, the Mekong Delta lags behind the national average in terms of many development indicators in the socio-economic sphere (e.g. education levels or housing conditions). Under stress from multiple economic and environmental pressures and risks, small-scale farmers increasingly have difficulties securing a minimum level of profitability and a stable livelihood base. Rising inequalities, high incidences of landlessness, and labour migration, notably into urban areas, are among the most significant consequences. At the same time, industrial development falls short of earlier expectations. The Delta’s secondary and tertiary sectors are presently unable to sufficiently absorb the former agricultural labour force. As a result, strong outmigration occurs, most importantly to Ho Chi Minh City and its neighbouring provinces. Guided by development theory we argue that next to the neoclassical expansion of conventional capital stocks for fostering endogenous growth potentials, development in the Mekong Delta heavily depends on institutional factors, enabling social and economic development. Aspects such as the need for improved access to land or for extended education and professional training, more integrated planning, and intensified promotion of economic innovations are discussed in detail.

Vulnerability, Coping and Adaptation to Water Related Hazards in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta

This chapter deals with the conceptualization, identification and assessment of the vulnerability of different social groups to water related hazards in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta. The Mekong Delta is globally seen as one of the key hotspots of climate change related risks due to its exposure to floods, salinization and potential sea level rise. In order to underline the multifaceted nature of vulnerability to natural hazards and climate change the paper outlines vulnerability profiles of different households and socio-economic groups in selected hazard prone areas, notably in rural communities exposed to high floods, coastal communities exposed to saline intrusion and urban communities exposed to urban and tidal flooding. The different locations selected for the assessment of vulnerability allow comparing how different local context situations and hazard phenomena might influence specific coping and adaptation strategies. The socio-economic transformation processes and policy reforms that have affected all three locations are examined in terms of their influence on vulnerability and capacities. The chapter provides a contribution to a further enhancement of methods, data bases and quality criteria for moving from an impact oriented risk assessment to a forward-looking vulnerability assessment that can inform future adaptation strategies. In this regard the chapter makes a contribution for linking disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA) discourses. Particularly, the analysis of vulnerabilities to creeping-changes has often not been sufficiently addresses and incorporated in DRR strategies in Vietnam.

Transitions between risk management regimes in cities

Ongoing climate change is encouraging cities to reevaluate their risk management strategies. Urban communities increasingly are being forced to respond to climate shifts with actions that promote resistance, resilience, or even larger scale transformations. Our objective is to present a conceptual framework that facilitates examination of how the transition from one type of risk management strategy or regime to another takes place. The research framework is built around a set of assumptions regarding the process of transition between risk management regimes. The framework includes five basic conceptual elements: (1) risk management regimes, (2) development pathways, (3) activity spheres, (4) activity spaces, and (5) root, contextual, and proximate drivers. The interaction among these elements and the potential for transition between four different possible regime states including resistance, resilience, transformation, and collapse are presented. The framework facilitates and guides analysis on whether and how transition is emergent, constrained, or accelerated in specific contexts. A case study of post-Hurricane Sandy New York is used to illustrate the framework and its overall effectiveness.

Risky Change? Vietnam’s urban flood risk governance between climate dynamics and transformation

Vietnams cities are not only rapidly transforming along with the countrys politico-economic change but are also recognized by various studies as being increasingly exposed to natural hazards and the projected impacts of climate change. This results in substantial challenges for urban disaster risk governance which are, however, not well understood scientifically and underemphasized politically. Against this background, the paper traces the dynamics in urban vulnerability and explores how the responsibilities and capacities for risk reduction and adaptation are negotiated and shared between state and non-state actors within the countrys changing political economy. The city of Can Tho, the demographic and economic centre of the highly flood- and typhoon-prone Mekong Delta, serves as an in-depth case study, drawing on 12 months of empirical research by the author. The findings suggest that the transformation process has not only yielded ambiguous and socially stratified vulnerability effects amongst urban residents; it has also resulted in significant shifts in the way that different stakeholders frame and attribute risk management. Despite the continued paternalistic rhetoric of the party-state apparatus as caretaker, considerable mismatches between state and non-state adaptation action can be observed, potentially undermining the effectiveness of both realms. The findings therefore call for a paradigm shift in Vietnams urban disaster risk governance. Future approaches need to go beyond the adjustment of physical infrastructure. Rather, the institutional configuration of risk governance itself needs to be adapted in order to mediate and integrate different types of risk reduction measures. These unfold across the increasingly divergent range of urban actors and their interests in terms of spatial scales, temporal scales, normative motivations, and capacities.

Urban Climate Change Adaptation in the Context of Transformation: Lessons from Vietnam

The imperative of adapting cities to risks associated with climate change will reveal the strong potential of political and administrative action at the level of local urban governments. Action at this level facilitates adaptation solutions that are closely linked to the specific needs, wants and capacities of local communities and economies. At the same time, the need to adapt to climate related impacts creates new, and in many cases, unprecedented challenges for local governments, often exceeding their current capacities in terms of risk awareness, expert knowledge, access to information, finance, or legal responsibility. This paradox is most apparent in emerging economies that have recently undergone, or are currently experiencing, political and economic transformations, including (re-)orientation towards market-oriented economies, administrative liberalisation, decentralisation, dynamic urbanisation and changing socio-political paradigms. Drawing on empirical research based on coastal and delta cities in Vietnam, focusing particularly on the example of Can Tho City in the Mekong Delta, this paper analyses the challenges local urban governments face with respect to formulating and implementing climate change adaptation strategies for their city in the context of transformation. The paper argues that challenges are particularly evident in the fields of urban growth and expansion, administrative reform and decentralisation, the fragmentation of sector responsibilities, the broadening of the actor spectrum and planning and management paradigms. Lessons learned can be utilised for other local urban governments experiencing similar conditions. Knowledge gaps and future research needs are also explored.