Torsten Welle

Framing vulnerability, risk and societal responses: the MOVE framework

The paper deals with the development of a general as well as integrative and holistic framework to systematize and assess vulnerability, risk and adaptation. The framework is a thinking tool meant as a heuristic that outlines key factors and different dimensions that need to be addressed when assessing vulnerability in the context of natural hazards and climate change. The approach underlines that the key factors of such a common framework are related to the exposure of a society or system to a hazard or stressor, the susceptibility of the system or community exposed, and its resilience and adaptive capacity. Additionally, it underlines the necessity to consider key factors and multiple thematic dimensions when assessing vulnerability in the context of natural and socio-natural hazards. In this regard, it shows key linkages between the different concepts used within the disaster risk management (DRM) and climate change adaptation (CCA) research. Further, it helps to illustrate the strong relationships between different concepts used in DRM and CCA. The framework is also a tool for communicating complexity and stresses the need for societal change in order to reduce risk and to promote adaptation. With regard to this, the policy relevance of the framework and first results of its application are outlined. Overall, the framework presented enhances the discussion on how to frame and link vulnerability, disaster risk, risk management and adaptation concepts.

Scenarios for vulnerability: opportunities and constraints in the context of climate change and disaster risk

Most scientific assessments for climate change adaptation and risk reduction are based on scenarios for climatic change. Scenarios for socio-economic development, particularly in terms of vulnerability and adaptive capacity, are largely lacking. This paper focuses on the utility of socio-economic scenarios for vulnerability, risk and adaptation research. The paper introduces the goals and functions of scenarios in general and reflects on the current global debate around shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). It examines the options and constraints of scenario methods for risk and vulnerability assessments in the context of climate change and natural hazards. Two case studies are used to contrast the opportunities and current constraints in scenario methods at different scales: the global WorldRiskIndex, based on quantitative data and indicators; and a local participatory scenario development process in Jakarta, showing a qualitative approach. The juxtaposition of a quantitative approach with global data and a qualitative-participatory local approach provides new insights on how different methods and scenario techniques can be applied in vulnerability and risk research.

The World Risk Index – An Approach to Assess Risk and Vulnerability on a Global Scale

The demand for information and understanding on natural hazard related risk on a global scale has grown in recent years. Such information is crucial for stakeholders who are working in the field of disaster risk reduction, spatial planning and (re-)insurance. This article provides a new approach to assess risk and vulnerability towards natural hazards on country scale and allows the comparison of countries at global scale. The concept of the WorldRiskIndex focuses on the understanding of risk which is defined as the interaction of physical hazards and the vulnerability of exposed elements. The exposure to natural hazards was assessed by using five indicators that describe the expsoure of people towards earthquakes, cyclones, floods, droughts and sea level rise. Whereas vulnerability consists of susceptibility, coping capacity and adaptive capacity was calculated on the basis of 23 indicators which comprise social, economic and environmental conditions of a society. The method and the results of the WorldRiskIndex were validated by using statistical analysis such as reliability, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The results of the WorldRiskIndex were mapped and classified by means of a GIS system to show different patterns of exposure, vulnerability and risk on global scale. The global perspective of risk clearly shows that the vulnerability of a society or a country is not the same as exposure to natural hazards.

Boost resilience of small and mid-sized cities

Smaller settlements are growing faster than megacities — and they need more protection from extreme events, write Joern Birkmann and colleagues.

The WorldRiskIndex 2016: Reveals the Necessity for Regional Cooperation in Vulnerability Reduction

Extreme events do not necessarily trigger extreme impacts. Exposure and vulnerability levels often decide whether hazards and extreme events lead to disasters or severe suffering or not. Measuring and assessing different levels of exposure, vulnerability and risk is therefore crucial in order to inform decision making and to provide guidance for defining priorities for risk reduction and adaptation. The WorldRiskIndex (WRI) is an approach to assess global exposure, vulnerability and risk patterns based on national scale resolution data. The new results of the WRI 2016 underscore that risk of natural hazards and climate change is particularly high in Oceania, Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and the Caribbean as well as Central America. The assessment for 171 countries reveals important improvements in some countries, such as Namibia, however, in other countries such as Brunei, Darussalam and Serbia risk has increased, particularly due to higher susceptibility and lower coping and adaptive capacities to deal with extreme events and natural hazards. The analysis of global patterns of risk shows that not only the physical exposure to extreme events or natural phenomena but also the societal context conditions in countries like Vanuatu, Niger, Haiti and Afghanistan are key drivers of risk and therefore efforts for risk reduction and adaptation at the local and national level need to also address aspects such as poverty and corruption. The persistence of high risk in various countries in Africa and Oceania also suggests that it is likely that these countries might not be able to effectively reduce risks solely on their own but rather need regional approaches and institutions for risk reduction and adaptation.

Vulnerability assessment to heat waves, floods, and earthquakes using the MOVE framework: test case Cologne, Germany

The MOVE framework was used in order to assess vulnerability toward heat waves, floods, and earthquakes in an urban area. It focused mainly on the social dimension of vulnerability for the smallest administrative unit within the City of Cologne (city quarters) with respect to heat waves and floods using specifically designed indicators. Reference is also made about the ecological dimension of flood risk of Cologne which is mainly relevant at the regional scale. Furthermore, the institutional vulnerability of different urban authorities dealing with risk reduction and risk governance is assessed with respect to the three hazards considered. The results derived from the spatial analysis of the social dimension of risk to heat waves and floods show different patterns of vulnerability mainly defined by the exposure and provide a first base of spatial information which could serve as a good communication tool of risk for several authorities in the Cologne Municipality. Ecosystems play a role at the river basin scale as risk in Cologne is related to land use and wetlands reclamation upstream but the environment and its services seem not to get much affected at the local, urban scale due to floods. Heat waves and earthquakes are less considered in risk governance processes compared to floods.

Extreme Events, Critical Infrastructures, Human Vulnerability and Strategic Planning: Emerging Research Issues

The importance of critical infrastructures and strategic planning in the context of extreme events, climate change and urbanization has been underscored recently in international policy frameworks, such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 (UNISDR (United Nations/International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction) 2015), and the new Paris climate agreement (UNFCCC (United Nations — Framework Convention on Climate Change) 2015) as well as the New Urban Agenda (UN-HABITAT 2016). This paper outlines key research challenges in addressing the nexus between extreme weather events, critical infrastructure resilience, human vulnerability and strategic planning. Using a structured expert dialogue approach (particularly based on a roundtable discussion funded by the German National Science Foundation (DFG)), the paper outlines emerging research issues in the context of extreme events, critical infrastructures, human vulnerability and strategic planning, providing perspectives for inter- and transdisciplinary research on this important nexus. The main contribution of the paper is a compilation of identified research gaps and needs from an interdisciplinary perspective including the lack of integration across subjects and mismatches between different concepts and schools of thought.

Vulnerability, Resilience and Transformation of Urban Areas in the Coastal Megacity Lagos: Findings of Local Assessments and a Household Survey in Highly Exposed Areas

Coastal urban regions in low-lying areas in developing countries are often hotspots of climate change related risks and therefore the analysis of different characteristics of vulnerability, resilience and transformation is an important prerequisite for planning and decision making. Even though the concepts of resilience and transformation have been discussed for some time, they often remain still very abstract. Against this background the following paper aims to illustrate how different characteristics of vulnerability: susceptibility, exposure and adaptation from resilience to transformative change can be assessed in practice at the level of individual households and different city districts. The household survey was conducted in four low-income, at risk areas in the coastal megacity of Lagos. It reveals important differences between the case study locations in terms of perceived capacities and actual responses of households to extreme events and creeping hazards. The analysis of behavioral changes undertaken after extreme events underscores that experience of loss and damage is an important stimulus for people to change their behavior. Moreover perception of actual and future risk management capacities and the performance of government institutions influences risk management regimes at the household level. It was found that at risk populations experienced both, inaction from government and individual households. This is a corrective to the majority literature that focuses on proactive local or government action. In fact, these examples of success may be quite rare and were not found in the four settlements studied in this research. The survey is part of a larger international project regarding the Transformation and Resilience of Urban Coasts (TRUC (2016). Transformation fo urban coasts Available at www.bel_truc.org) funded by the Belmont Forum and the DFG in particular in terms of the research in Lagos.

Measuring the Unmeasurable: Comparative Assessment of Urban Vulnerability for Coastal Megacities — New York, London, Tokyo, Kolkata and Lagos

The following paper presents an approach to measure the vulnerability of urban megacities with a comparative approach across cities in the Global North and South. The assessment of city vulnerability is key in order to inform risk management and adaptation strategies that are needed to build resilience against extreme events, natural hazards or consequences of climate change. While the New Urban Agenda (UN Habitat 2016) underscores the necessity for inclusive, sustainable and resilient urban development, the findings of the vulnerability assessment in the five selected coastal megacities that were part of the TRUC project — Kolkata, Lagos, London, New York and Tokyo — show that next to resource deficiencies and poverty, issues of governance also need to be addressed if we really aim to increase the coping capacities of urban population to deal with extreme events and natural hazards. While this is a major challenge for the selected coastal megacities in the Global South, the analysis reveals that in terms of adaptive capacities also, megacities in the Global North, such as New York and London, face major challenges and rank nearly on a similar level as Kolkata. Even though such assessments provide only a first overview, it is evident that effective risk management approaches and positive transformative change that can include long-term as well as immediate risk management concerns will not only require improvements at the local level but also significant changes in sub-national and national context conditions. This is particularly true in terms of fighting corruption and increasing the reliability and trustworthiness of local and national institutions and their regulations.

Theoretical framework for the assessment of vulnerability to natural hazards and climate change [in Europe]

Assessment of Vulnerability to Natural Hazards covers the vulnerability of human and environmental systems to climate change and eight natural hazards: earthquakes, floods, landslides, avalanches, forest fires, drought, coastal erosion, and heat waves