Roald A.A. Suurs

Cumulative causation in biofuels development : a critical comparison of the Netherlands and Sweden

Supporting the development and diffusion of sustainable innovations has become a dominant topic on the political agenda of many countries. However, this has proven to be a difficult task. To increase insight in such processes, this paper takes biofuel technologies in the mobility sector as the topic of a comparative case study. Various national governments have supported innovation trajectories around biofuels. We analyse, assess and compare two such trajectories as they have developed so far: one in the Netherlands and one in Sweden. A Technological Innovation System (TIS) approach is applied. A TIS is constituted by actors, networks and institutions, that are to be gradually constructed around a technology. We analyse whether governments and entrepreneurs have succeeded in developing seven key processes, or system functions, necessary for the development and diffusion of biofuel technologies. By analysing the build-up of system functions over time we identify virtuous and vicious forms of cumulative causation. The Dutch and Swedish TISs for biofuels are followed from 1990 to 2005. Our comparison shows that, due to the fulfilment of system functions and the emergence of cumulative causation, the Swedish TIS has reached a market expansion and broad social implementation of biofuels, whereas the Dutch TIS has established considerably less.

Assessing transition trajectories towards a sustainable energy system: A case study on the Dutch transition to climate-neutral transport fuel chains

Summary This paper proposes a method for the ex ante evaluation of technological trajectories. As a case we study the Dutch transport energy system and its transition to climate neutrality. Two technological trajectories are proposed: (i) a sequence of transition steps based on radical infrastructural change, and (ii) a sequence of steps oriented towards incremental innovation on the side of the vehicle. The system is approached from a multi-actor perspective, taking into account the multiplicity of views and interests of actors involved. Based on interviews a quick scan is made in terms of their Willingness to Participate (WTP). We find that on long term goals, a positive WTP and a high degree of consent are the case. For the short term the opposite is found. Management should therefore be directed at facilitating short term innovations: in the case of an incremental strategy, by stimulating market development; and in case of a radical strategy, by providing finance and institutional legitimation.