Melinda Marquis

Forecasting the Wind to Reach Significant Penetration Levels of Wind Energy

Advances in atmospheric science are critical to increased deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) sources. For VRE sources, such as wind and solar, to reach high penetration levels in the nations electric grid, electric system operators and VRE operators need better atmospheric observations, models, and forecasts. Improved meteorological observations through a deep layer of the atmosphere are needed for assimilation into numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The need for improved operational NWP forecasts that can be used as inputs to power prediction models in the 0–36-h time frame is particularly urgent and more accurate predictions of rapid changes in VRE generation (ramp events) in the very short range (0–6 h) are crucial. We describe several recent studies that investigate the feasibility of generating 20% or more of the nations electricity from weather-dependent VRE. Next, we describe key advances in atmospheric science needed for effective development of wind energy and approaches to a...

Solar Forecasting: Methods, Challenges, and Performance

The deployment of solar-based electricity generation, especially in the form of photovoltaics (PVs), has increased markedly in recent years due to a wide range of factors including concerns over greenhouse gas emissions, supportive government policies, and lower equipment costs. Still, a number of challenges remain for reliable, efficient integration of solar energy. Chief among them will be developing new tools and practices that manage the variability and uncertainty of solar power.

Recent Trends in Variable Generation Forecasting and Its Value to the Power System

The rapid deployment of wind and solar energy generation systems has resulted in a need to better understand, predict, and manage variable generation. The uncertainty around wind and solar power forecasts is still viewed by the power industry as being quite high, and many barriers to forecast adoption by power system operators still remain. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, public, private, and academic organizations, two projects to advance wind and solar power forecasts. Additionally, several utilities and grid operators have recognized the value of adopting variable generation forecasting and have taken great strides to enhance their usage of forecasting. In parallel, power system markets and operations are evolving to integrate greater amounts of variable generation. This paper will discuss the recent trends in wind and solar power forecasting technologies in the U.S., the role of forecasting in an evolving power system framework, and the benefits to intended forecast users.

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public–Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

AbstractThe Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public–private research program, the goal of which is to improve the accuracy of short-term (0–6 h) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that included the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collection of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models and, second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the United States (the upper Great Plains and Texas) and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, several lidars and surface flux stations, 184 instrumented tall towers, and over 400 nacelle anemome...

The POWER Experiment: Impact of Assimilation of a Network of Coastal Wind Profiling Radars on Simulating Offshore Winds in and above the Wind Turbine Layer

AbstractDuring the summer of 2004 a network of 11 wind profiling radars (WPRs) was deployed in New England as part of the New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS). Observations from this dataset are used to determine their impact on numerical weather prediction (NWP) model skill at simulating coastal and offshore winds through data-denial experiments. This study is a part of the Position of Offshore Wind Energy Resources (POWER) experiment, a Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored project that uses National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) models for two 1-week periods to measure the impact of the assimilation of observations from 11 inland WPRs. Model simulations with and without assimilation of the WPR data are compared at the locations of the inland WPRs, as well as against observations from an additional WPR and a high-resolution Doppler lidar (HRDL) located on board the Research Vessel Ronald H. Brown (RHB), which cruised the Gulf of Maine during the NEAQS experiment. Model evaluation in the ...

Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy

What: more than 100 participants, including representatives of academia, business, and government, discussed the nexus of weather and climate with the energy sector When: 17–21 January 2010 Where: atlanta, georgia t hough the relevance of weather to the energy industry’s predictions of energy demand (load) has long been recognized, only recently has the crucial role of meteorological information in the industry’s predictions of supply (source) been appre ciated. As increasing amounts of renewable energy are being brought onto the electric grid, the need for improved weather observations and forecasts across a range of time scales is growing. At this meeting, discussions centered on creative ways to obtain new measurements, improved models, and other informa tion required to support the instantaneous and con tinuous requirement to balance supply and demand in both traditional and renewable energy. A town-hall meeting, whose keynote speech was delivered by AMS President Tom Karl, kicked off this First Conference by outlining some of the key meteorological problems hindering greater use of renewable energy and the need for collaboration among private, public, and academic sectors. The conference continued with participants discussing the value and speed of delivery of accurate forecasts of temperature, humidity, precipitation, wind speeds, and cloud cover, which influence energy demand for heating, cooling, and lighting, as well as the timing of certain industrial and manufacturing processes that depend on certain weather conditions. Participants attempted to bridge the gap between meteorology and the energy industry by discussing the information that those in the two respective fields need from the other. Meteorologists had the opportunity to learn about unique and challenging aspects of the energy trading market. This market’s incredible volatility, in which energy prices can change by a factor of as much as 3.8 within one day, as well as its possibility for negative prices, meaning that traders actually sometimes pay for others to take excess electricity to keep demand and supply balanced, leads to the prime importance of accurate weather forecasts. Deviations from the day-ahead forecast can lead to sudden and severe changes in market conditions and prices; millions of dollars are made and lost within a period of an hour, based on weather forecasts. The paucity of relevant observations for improving forecasts of winds at turbine heights (~100 m) for onshore and offshore wind power, and of clouds (insolation) and aerosols for solar power, led to discussions of how to fill these data gaps. Techniques using remote sensing by ground-based wind profilers, radars, and AFFILIATION: Marquis—noaa earth System research laboratory CORRESPONDING AUTHOR : melinda marquis, noaa/eSrl, 325 Broadway, Boulder, Co 80305 e-mail: melinda.marquis@noaa.gov

Wide-Area Planning of Electric Infrastructure: Assessing Investment Options for Low-Carbon Futures

Electric infrastructure worldwide has evolved significantly over the last decade, as nations increase the renewable share of their generation portfolio and build transmission to move energy from the resources to the load centers. Since 2007, the United States has increased its percentage of electric energy generated from wind and solar from lower than 1% to 7.5%, Europe from approximately 3% to over 13%, and China from 1% to 5%.

Earth Observing System snow and ice products for observation and modeling

Snow and ice are the key components of the Earths cryosphere, and their influence on the Earths energy balance is very significant due at least in part to the large areal extent and high albedo characterizing these features. Large changes in the cryosphere have been measured over the last century and especially over the past decade, and remote sensing plays a pivotal role in documenting these changes. Many of NASAs Earth Observing System (EOS) products derived from instruments on the Terra, Aqua, and Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) satellites are useful for measuring changes in features that are associated with climate change. The utility of the products is continually enhanced as the lengths of the time series increase.

Monitoring Wind Flow in Complex Terrain for Improvement of Turbine Rotor-Layer Wind Forecasts

Wind energy encounters challenges due to variability in the wind resource. The paper presents the wind flow variability from Doppler lidar measurements and NWP models forecasts in the complex terrain of Columbia River Gorge.

Assessment of NWP Forecast Models in Simulating Offshore Winds through the Lower Boundary Layer by Measurements from a Ship-Based Scanning Doppler Lidar

AbstractEvaluation of model skill in predicting winds over the ocean was performed by comparing retrospective runs of numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecast models to shipborne Doppler lidar measurements in the Gulf of Maine, a potential region for U.S. coastal wind farm development. Deployed on board the NOAA R/V Ronald H. Brown during a 2004 field campaign, the high-resolution Doppler lidar (HRDL) provided accurate motion-compensated wind measurements from the water surface up through several hundred meters of the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL). The quality and resolution of the HRDL data allow detailed analysis of wind flow at heights within the rotor layer of modern wind turbines and data on other critical variables to be obtained, such as wind speed and direction shear, turbulence, low-level jet properties, ramp events, and many other wind-energy-relevant aspects of the flow. This study will focus on the quantitative validation of NWP models’ wind forecasts within the lower MABL by com...