Mengling Liu

Arsenic exposure from drinking water and mortality from cardiovascular disease in Bangladesh: prospective cohort study

Objective To evaluate the association between arsenic exposure and mortality from cardiovascular disease and to assess whether cigarette smoking influences the association. Design Prospective cohort study with arsenic exposure measured in drinking water from wells and urine. Setting General population in Araihazar, Bangladesh. Participants 11 746 men and women who provided urine samples in 2000 and were followed up for an average of 6.6 years. Main outcome measure Death from cardiovascular disease. Results 198 people died from diseases of circulatory system, accounting for 43% of total mortality in the population. The mortality rate for cardiovascular disease was 214.3 per 100 000 person years in people drinking water containing <12.0 µg/L arsenic, compared with 271.1 per 100 000 person years in people drinking water with ≥12.0 µg/L arsenic. There was a dose-response relation between exposure to arsenic in well water assessed at baseline and mortality from ischaemic heart disease and other heart disease; the hazard ratios in increasing quarters of arsenic concentration in well water (0.1-12.0, 12.1-62.0, 62.1-148.0, and 148.1-864.0 µg/L) were 1.00 (reference), 1.22 (0.65 to 2.32), 1.35 (0.71 to 2.57), and 1.92 (1.07 to 3.43) (P=0.0019 for trend), respectively, after adjustment for potential confounders including age, sex, smoking status, educational attainment, body mass index (BMI), and changes in urinary arsenic concentration since baseline. Similar associations were observed when baseline total urinary arsenic was used as the exposure variable and for mortality from ischaemic heart disease specifically. The data indicate a significant synergistic interaction between arsenic exposure and cigarette smoking in mortality from ischaemic heart disease and other heart disease. In particular, the hazard ratio for the joint effect of a moderate level of arsenic exposure (middle third of well arsenic concentration 25.3-114.0 µg/L, mean 63.5 µg/L) and cigarette smoking on mortality from heart disease was greater than the sum of the hazard ratios associated with their individual effect (relative excess risk for interaction 1.56, 0.05 to 3.14; P=0.010). Conclusions Exposure to arsenic in drinking water is adversely associated with mortality from heart disease, especially among smokers.

A prospective study of arsenic exposure, arsenic methylation capacity, and risk of cardiovascular disease in Bangladesh.

Background: Few prospective studies have evaluated the influence of arsenic methylation capacity on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Objective: We evaluated the association of arsenic exposure from drinking water and arsenic methylation capacity with CVD risk. Method: We conducted a case–cohort study of 369 incident fatal and nonfatal cases of CVD, including 211 cases of heart disease and 148 cases of stroke, and a subcohort of 1,109 subjects randomly selected from the 11,224 participants in the Health Effects of Arsenic Longitudinal Study (HEALS). Results: The adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for all CVD, heart disease, and stroke in association with a 1-SD increase in baseline well-water arsenic (112 µg/L) were 1.15 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.30), 1.20 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.38), and 1.08 (95% CI: 0.90, 1.30), respectively. aHRs for the second and third tertiles of percentage urinary monomethylarsonic acid (MMA%) relative to the lowest tertile, respectively, were 1.27 (95% CI: 0.85, 1.90) and 1.55 (95% CI: 1.08, 2.23) for all CVD, and 1.65 (95% CI: 1.05, 2.60) and 1.61 (95% CI: 1.04, 2.49) for heart disease specifically. The highest versus lowest ratio of urinary dimethylarsinic acid (DMA) to MMA was associated with a significantly decreased risk of CVD (aHR = 0.54; 95% CI: 0.34, 0.85) and heart disease (aHR = 0.54; 95% CI: 0.33, 0.88). There was no significant association between arsenic metabolite indices and stroke risk. The effects of incomplete arsenic methylation capacity—indicated by higher urinary MMA% or lower urinary DMA%—with higher levels of well-water arsenic on heart disease risk were additive. There was some evidence of a synergy of incomplete methylation capacity with older age and cigarette smoking. Conclusions: Arsenic exposure from drinking water and the incomplete methylation capacity of arsenic were adversely associated with heart disease risk.

Circulating Inflammation Markers and Risk of Epithelial Ovarian Cancer

Background: Factors contributing to chronic inflammation appear to be associated with increased risk of ovarian cancer. The purpose of this study was to assess the association between circulating levels of inflammation mediators and subsequent risk of ovarian cancer. Methods: We conducted a case-control study of 230 cases and 432 individually matched controls nested within three prospective cohorts to evaluate the association of prediagnostic circulating levels of inflammation-related biomarkers (IL-1β, IL-2, IL-4, IL-5, IL-6, IL-10, IL-12p40, IL-12p70, IL-13, TNFα, IL-1Ra, sIL-1RII, sIL-2Ra, sIL-4R, sIL-6R, sTNF-R1, and sTNF-R2) measured using Luminex xMap technology with risk of ovarian cancer. Results: We observed a trend across quartiles for IL-2 (ORQ4 vs. Q1: 1.57, 95% CI: 0.98–2.52, P = 0.07), IL-4 (ORQ4 vs. Q1: 1.50, 95% CI: 0.95–2.38, P = 0.06), IL-6 (ORQ4 vs. Q1: 1.63, 95% CI: 1.03–2.58, P = 0.03), IL-12p40 (ORQ4 vs. Q1: 1.60, 95% CI: 1.02–2.51, P = 0.06), and IL-13 (ORQ4 vs. Q1: 1.42, 95% CI: 0.90–2.26, P = 0.11). Trends were also observed when cytokines were modeled on the continuous scale for IL-4 (P trend = 0.01), IL-6 (P trend = 0.01), IL-12p40 (P trend = 0.01), and IL-13 (P trend = 0.04). ORs were not materially different after excluding cases diagnosed less than 5 years after blood donation or when limited to serous tumors. Conclusions and Impact: This study provides the first direct evidence that multiple inflammation markers, specifically IL-2, IL-4, IL-6, IL-12, and IL-13, may be associated with risk of epithelial ovarian cancer, and adds to the evidence that inflammation is involved in the development of this disease. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 20(5); 799–810. ©2011 AACR.

Reproducibility of serum cytokines and growth factors

BACKGROUND In most studies, circulating biomarkers are usually assessed from a single sample, assuming that this single measurement represents the long-term biomarker status of the individual. Such an assumption is rarely tested although it may not be valid for all biomarkers. The objective of this study was to investigate the temporal reproducibility of a panel of cytokines and growth factors. METHODS Thirty-five postmenopausal women with two annual visits and 30 premenopausal women with three annual visits were randomly selected from the participants in an existing prospective cohort. A total of 23 serum cytokines, nine growth factors and C-reactive protein (CRP) were measured using the Luminex xMap technology. In addition, for eight biomarkers, regular and high sensitivity (hs) assays were compared. RESULTS The biomarkers with adequate (>60%) detection rates and acceptable (> or =0.55) intra-class correlation coefficients (ICCs) were: hsIL-1beta, IL-1RA, hsIL-2, hsIL-4, hsIL-5, hsIL-6, hsIL-10, IL-12p40, hsIL-12p70, hsTNF-alpha, TNF-R1, TNF-R2, CRP, HGF, NGF, and EGFR. The remaining biomarkers either had low temporal reproducibility or were undetectable in more than 40% of samples. CONCLUSIONS The results suggest that 16 of the 41 biomarkers measured with Luminex technology showed sufficient sensitivity and temporal reproducibility in sera.

Arsenic Exposure From Drinking Water, Arsenic Methylation Capacity, and Carotid Intima-Media Thickness in Bangladesh

We conducted a cross-sectional study to evaluate the interrelationships between past arsenic exposure, biomarkers specific for susceptibility to arsenic exposure, and carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) in 959 subjects from the Health Effects of Arsenic Longitudinal Study in Bangladesh. We measured cIMT levels on average 7.2 years after baseline during 2010-2011. Arsenic exposure was measured in well water at baseline and in urine samples collected at baseline and during follow-up. Every 1-standard-deviation increase in urinary arsenic (357.9 µg/g creatinine) and well-water arsenic (102.0 µg/L) concentration was related to a 11.7-µm (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.8, 21.6) and 5.1-µm (95% CI: -0.2, 10.3) increase in cIMT, respectively. For every 10% increase in monomethylarsonic acid (MMA) percentage, there was an increase of 12.1 µm (95% CI: 0.4, 23.8) in cIMT. Among participants with a higher urinary MMA percentage, a higher ratio of urinary MMA to inorganic arsenic, and a lower ratio of dimethylarsinic acid to MMA, the association between well-water arsenic and cIMT was stronger. The findings indicate an effect of past long-term arsenic exposure on cIMT, which may be potentiated by suboptimal or incomplete arsenic methylation capacity. Future prospective studies are needed to confirm the association between arsenic methylation capacity and atherosclerosis-related outcomes.

Association between arsenic exposure from drinking water and proteinuria: results from the Health Effects of Arsenic Longitudinal Study

BACKGROUND Proteinuria has been recognized as a marker for an increased risk of chronic renal disease. It is unclear whether arsenic (As) exposure from drinking water is associated with proteinuria. METHODS We evaluated the association between As exposure from drinking water and proteinuria in 11,122 participants in the Health Effects of Arsenic Longitudinal Study (HEALS). Proteinuria was detected by urinary dipstick tests at baseline and at 2-year intervals. As exposure variables included baseline well As and changes in urinary As during follow-up modelled as time-dependent variables in the analyses. RESULTS At baseline, well As was positively related to prevalence of proteinuria; prevalence odds ratios (PORs) for proteinuria in increasing quintiles of well As (≤ 7, 8-39, 40-91, 92-179 and 180-864 µg/l) were 1.00 (ref), POR 0.99 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.77-1.27], POR 1.23 (95% CI 0.97-1.57), POR 1.50 (95% CI 1.18-1.89) and POR 1.59 (95% CI 1.26-2.00) (P for trend <0.01). Hazard ratios for incidence of proteinuria were POR 0.83 (95% CI 0.67-1.03) and POR 0.91 (95% CI 0.74-1.12) for participants with a decreasing level of >70 and 17-70 µg/l in urinary As over time, respectively, and were POR 1.17 (95% CI 0.97-1.42) and POR 1.42 (95% CI 1.16-1.73) for participants with an increasing level of 16-68 and >68 µg/l in urinary As over time, respectively, compared with the group with relatively little changes in urinary As as the reference group (urinary As -16 to 15 µg/l). CONCLUSION The findings suggest that there are adverse effects of As exposure on the risk of proteinuria and the effects are modifiable by recent changes in As exposure.

Reliability of tumor markers, chemokines, and metastasis-related molecules in serum

There is a growing interest in the role that cancer biomarkers, metastasis-related molecules, and chemokines may play in the development and progression of various cancers. However, few studies have addressed the reliability of such biomarkers in healthy individuals over time. The objective of this study was to investigate the temporal reliability of multiple proteins in serum samples from healthy women who donated blood over successive years. Thirty five, postmenopausal women with two, repeated annual visits, and thirty, premenopausal women with three, repeated annual visits were randomly selected among eligible subjects from an existing, prospective cohort. Multiplexing Luminex xMAPTM technology was used to measure the levels of 55 serum proteins representing cancer antigens, chemokines, angiogenic and anti-angiogenic factors, proteases, adipokines, apoptotic molecules, and other markers in these women. The biomarkers with high detection rates (> 60%) and acceptable reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient, ICCs > or = 0.55) using xMAPTM method were: cancer antigens: AFP, CA 15-3, CEA, CA-125, SCC, SAA; growth factors/related molecules: ErbB2, IGFBP-1; proteases and adhesion molecules: MMP-1, 8, 9, sE-selectin, human kallikreins (KLK) 8,10, ICAM-1, VCAM-1, chemokines: fractalkine, MCP-1,2, RANTES, MIP-1alpha, MIP-1beta, Eotaxin, GRO-alpha, IP-10; inhibitors of angiogenesis: angiostatin and endostatin; adipokines leptin and resistin; apoptotic factor: Fas, and other proteins mesothelin, myeloperoxidase (MPO), and PAI-1. The rest of the biomarkers under investigation either had ICCs less than 0.55 or had low levels of detection (< 60%). These included cancer antigens: CA 19-9, CA 72-4, MICA, S100, TTR, ULBP1, ULBP2, ULBP3; proteases: MMP 2, 3, 7, 12, 13; chemokines: MCP-3, MIF, MIG; adipokines: leptin and resistin; apoptotic factors: FasL, DR5, Cyfra 21-1; and inhibitors of angiogenesis and other markers: thrombospondin and heat shock protein (HSP) 27. In conclusion, 34 out of the 55 biomarkers investigated were present in detectable levels in > 60% of the samples, and with an ICC > or = 0.55, indicating that a single serum measurement can be used in prospective epidemiological studies using the xMAPTM method.

Premenopausal serum androgens and breast cancer risk: a nested case-control study

IntroductionProspective epidemiologic studies have consistently shown that levels of circulating androgens in postmenopausal women are positively associated with breast cancer risk. However, data in premenopausal women are limited.MethodsA case-control study nested within the New York University Womens Health Study was conducted. A total of 356 cases (276 invasive and 80 in situ) and 683 individually-matched controls were included. Matching variables included age and date, phase, and day of menstrual cycle at blood donation. Testosterone, androstenedione, dehydroandrosterone sulfate (DHEAS) and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) were measured using direct immunoassays. Free testosterone was calculated.ResultsPremenopausal serum testosterone and free testosterone concentrations were positively associated with breast cancer risk. In models adjusted for known risk factors of breast cancer, the odds ratios for increasing quintiles of testosterone were 1.0 (reference), 1.5 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.9 to 2.3), 1.2 (95% CI, 0.7 to 1.9), 1.4 (95% CI, 0.9 to 2.3) and 1.8 (95% CI, 1.1 to 2.9; Ptrend = 0.04), and for free testosterone were 1.0 (reference), 1.2 (95% CI, 0.7 to 1.8), 1.5 (95% CI, 0.9 to 2.3), 1.5 (95% CI, 0.9 to 2.3), and 1.8 (95% CI, 1.1 to 2.8, Ptrend = 0.01). A marginally significant positive association was observed with androstenedione (P = 0.07), but no association with DHEAS or SHBG. Results were consistent in analyses stratified by tumor type (invasive, in situ), estrogen receptor status, age at blood donation, and menopausal status at diagnosis. Intra-class correlation coefficients for samples collected from 0.8 to 5.3 years apart (median 2 years) in 138 cases and 268 controls were greater than 0.7 for all biomarkers except for androstenedione (0.57 in controls).ConclusionsPremenopausal concentrations of testosterone and free testosterone are associated with breast cancer risk. Testosterone and free testosterone measurements are also highly reliable (that is, a single measurement is reflective of a womans average level over time). Results from other prospective studies are consistent with our results. The impact of including testosterone or free testosterone in breast cancer risk prediction models for women between the ages of 40 and 50 years should be assessed. Improving risk prediction models for this age group could help decision making regarding both screening and chemoprevention of breast cancer.

Reproducibility of Serum Pituitary Hormones in Women

Endogenous pituitary hormones are commonly used in clinical and epidemiologic studies and some of them are thought to influence the risk of several diseases in women. In most studies, endogenous levels of pituitary hormones are usually assessed at a single point in time, assuming that this single measurement represents the long-term biomarker status of the individual. Such an assumption is rarely tested and may not always be valid. This study examined the reproducibility of the following pituitary hormones: adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH), growth hormone, follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), luteinizing hormone (LH), thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH), and prolactin, measured using the Luminex xMap method in sera of healthy premenopausal and postmenopausal women. The study included 30 premenopausal women with three yearly samples and 35 postmenopausal women with two repeated yearly samples randomly selected from an existing prospective cohort. Analysis of intraclass correlation coefficients suggested higher reproducibility in postmenopausal women compared with premenopausal women for the following hormones: FSH (0.72 and 0.37, respectively), LH (0.83 and 0.44, respectively), and growth hormone (0.60 and 0.35, respectively). The intraclass correlation coefficients were relatively high and similar between postmenopausal and premenopausal women for ACTH (0.95 and 0.94, respectively), TSH (0.85 and 0.85, respectively), and prolactin (0.72 and 0.69, respectively). This study found that serum concentrations of FSH, LH, and growth hormone are stable in postmenopausal women and that ACTH, TSH, and prolactin are stable in both premenopausal and postmenopausal women, suggesting that a single measurement may reliably categorize average levels over at least a 2-year period. (Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2008;17(8):1880–3)

A Monte Carlo approach for change-point detection in the Cox proportional hazards model

Detecting a time lag of treatment effect or identifying change points in a hazard function is of great interest and importance in survival analysis. The testing procedures hereto are primarily based on analytical approximations for the asymptotic null distribution of either the likelihood ratio test or the score test. In the presence of random censoring and/or covariates, however, the justification for the limiting distribution often requires some technical assumptions and conditions that are difficult to verify in practice. Moreover, a satisfactory asymptotic theory for testing the existence of multiple change points in hazard function has not emerged. In this paper, we consider maximal score tests for detecting change point(s) in the Cox proportional hazards model with censored data. We propose to use a simple Monte Carlo approach for assessing the statistical significance of tests. The proposed approach is applicable for testing a single change point in the Cox model with covariates and sample stratifications over various types of candidate regions, including discrete time-point sets or disjoint intervals. We also show that the proposed test statistics and the Monte Carlo procedure are well applicable under situations with multiple change points. Simulation studies and an analysis of a real data from a randomized cancer trial are conducted to demonstrate the finite-sample performance of the proposed approach.