Michael A. McNeil

Impacts of US federal energy efficiency standards for residential appliances

This study estimated energy, environmental, and consumer impacts of US federal residential energy efficiency standards taking effect in the 1988–2007 period. These standards have been the subject of in-depth analyses conducted as part of the US Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) standards rulemaking process. This study drew on those analyses, but updated key data and developed a common framework and assumptions for all of the products. We estimate that the considered standards will reduce residential primary energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 8–9% in 2020 compared to the levels expected without any standards. The standards will save a cumulative total of 26–32 EJ (25–30 quads) by the year 2015, and 63 EJ (60 quads) by 2030. The estimated cumulative net present value of consumer benefit amounts to nearly US

Energy Use in China: Sectoral Trends and Future Outlook

80 billion by 2015, and grows to US

Global Potential of Energy Efficiency Standards and Labeling Programs

130 billion by 2030. The overall benefit/cost ratio of cumulative consumer impacts in the 1987–2050 period is 2.75:1. The cumulative cost of the DOE’s program to establish and implement the standards is in the range of US

Global Energy Assessment (GEA): Energy End-Use: Buildings

200–US

Residential and Transport Energy Use in India: Past Trend and Future Outlook

250 million.

India Energy Outlook: End Use Demand in India to 2020

This report provides a detailed, bottom-up analysis of energy consumption in China. It recalibrates official Chinese government statistics by reallocating primary energy into categories more commonly used in international comparisons. It also provides an analysis of trends in sectoral energy consumption over the past decades. Finally, it assesses the future outlook for the critical period extending to 2020, based on assumptions of likely patterns of economic activity, availability of energy services, and energy intensities. The following are some highlights of the studys findings: * A reallocation of sector energy consumption from the 2000 official Chinese government statistics finds that: * Buildings account for 25 percent of primary energy, instead of 19 percent * Industry accounts for 61 percent of energy instead of 69 percent * Industrial energy made a large and unexpected leap between 2000-2005, growing by an astonishing 50 percent in the 3 years between 2002 and 2005. * Energy consumption in the iron and steel industry was 40 percent higher than predicted * Energy consumption in the cement industry was 54 percent higher than predicted * Overall energy intensity in the industrial sector grew between 2000 and 2003. This is largely due to internal shifts towards the most energy-intensive sub-sectors, an effect which more than counterbalances the impact of efficiency increases. * Industry accounted for 63 percent of total primary energy consumption in 2005 - it is expected to continue to dominate energy consumption through 2020, dropping only to 60 percent by that year. * Even assuming that growth rates in 2005-2020 will return to the levels of 2000-2003, industrial energy will grow from 42 EJ in 2005 to 72 EJ in 2020. * The percentage of transport energy used to carry passengers (instead of freight) will double from 37 percent to 52 percent between 2000 to 2020,. Much of this increase is due to private car ownership, which will increase by a factor of 15 from 5.1 million in 2000 to 77 million in 2020. * Residential appliance ownership will show signs of saturation in urban households. The increase in residential energy consumption will be largely driven by urbanization, since rural homes will continue to have low consumption levels. In urban households, the size of appliances will increase, but its effect will be moderated by efficiency improvements, partially driven by government standards. * Commercial energy increases will be driven both by increases in floor space and by increases in penetration of major end uses such as heating and cooling. These increases will be moderated somewhat, however, by technology changes, such as increased use of heat pumps. * Chinas Medium- and Long-Term Development plan drafted by the central government and published in 2004 calls for a quadrupling of GDP in the period from 2000-2020 with only a doubling in energy consumption during the same period. A bottom-up analysis with likely efficiency improvements finds that energy consumption will likely exceed the goal by 26.12 EJ, or 28 percent. Achievements of these goals will there fore require a more aggressive policy of encouraging energy efficiency.

Assessment of the Impacts of Standards and Labeling Programs inMexico (four products).

E RNEST O RLANDO L AWRENCE B ERKELEY N ATIONAL L ABORATORY Global Potential of Energy Efficiency Standards and Labeling Programs Michael A. McNeil, Virginie E. Letschert and Stephane de la Rue du Can Environmental Energy Technologies Division June 2008 This work was supported by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry and the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan through the Collaborative Labeling and Appliance Standards Program under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231

Business Case for Energy Efficiency in Support of Climate Change Mitigation, Economic and Societal Benefits in China

Executive Summary Buildings are key to a sustainable future because their design, construction, operation, and the activities in buildings are significant contributors to energy-related sustainability challenges – reducing energy demand in buildings can play one of the most important roles in solving these challenges. More specifically: The buildings sector and peoples activities in buildings are responsible for approximately 31% of global final energy demand, approximately one-third of energy-related CO 2 emissions, approximately two-thirds of halocarbon, and approximately 25–33% of black carbon emissions. Several energy-related problems affecting human health and productivity take place in buildings, including mortality and morbidity due to poor indoor air quality or inadequate indoor temperatures. Therefore, improving buildings and their equipment offers one of the entry points to addressing these challenges. More efficient energy and material use, as well as sustainable energy supply in buildings, are critical to tackling the sustainability-related challenges outlined in the GEA. Recent major advances in building design, know-how, technology, and policy have made it possible for global building energy use to decline significantly. A number of lowenergy and passive buildings, both retrofitted and newly constructed, already exist, demonstrating that low level of building energy performance is achievable. With the application of on-site and community-scale renewable energy sources, several buildings and communities could become zero-net-energy users and zero-greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters, or net energy suppliers. Recent advances in materials and know-how make new buildings that use 10–40% of the final heating and cooling energy of conventional new buildings cost-effective in all world regions and climate zones.

Assessment of historic trend in mobility and energy use in India transportation sector using bottom-up approach

The main contribution of this report is to characterize the underlying residential and transport sector end use energy consumption in India. Each sector was analyzed in detail. End-use sector-level information regarding adoption of particular technologies was used as a key input in a bottom-up modeling approach. The report looks at energy used over the period 1990 to 2005 and develops a baseline scenario to 2020. Moreover, the intent of this report is also to highlight available sources of data in India for the residential and transport sectors. The analysis as performed in this way reveals several interesting features of energy use in India. In the residential sector, an analysis of patterns of energy use and particular end uses shows that biomass (wood), which has traditionally been the main source of primary energy used in households, will stabilize in absolute terms. Meanwhile, due to the forces of urbanization and increased use of commercial fuels, the relative significance of biomass will be greatly diminished by 2020. At the same time, per household residential electricity consumption will likely quadruple in the 20 years between 2000 and 2020. In fact, primary electricity use will increase more rapidly than any other major fuel -- even more than oil, in spite of the fact that transport is the most rapidly growing sector. The growth in electricity demand implies that chronic outages are to be expected unless drastic improvements are made both to the efficiency of the power infrastructure and to electric end uses and industrial processes. In the transport sector, the rapid growth in personal vehicle sales indicates strong energy growth in that area. Energy use by cars is expected to grow at an annual growth rate of 11percent, increasing demand for oil considerably. In addition, oil consumption used for freight transport will also continue to increase .

Business Case for Energy Efficiency in Support of Climate Change Mitigation, Economic and Societal Benefits in the United States

Integrated economic models have been used to project both baseline and mitigation greenhouse gas emissions scenarios at the country and the global level. Results of these scenarios are typically presented at the sectoral level such as industry, transport, and buildings without further disaggregation. Recently, a keen interest has emerged on constructing bottom up scenarios where technical energy saving potentials can be displayed in detail (IEA, 2006b; IPCC, 2007; McKinsey, 2007). Analysts interested in particular technologies and policies, require detailed information to understand specific mitigation options in relation to business-as-usual trends. However, the limit of information available for developing countries often poses a problem. In this report, we have focus on analyzing energy use in India in greater detail. Results shown for the residential and transport sectors are taken from a previous report (de la Rue du Can, 2008). A complete picture of energy use with disaggregated levels is drawn to understand how energy is used in India and to offer the possibility to put in perspective the different sources of end use energy consumption. For each sector, drivers of energy and technology are indentified. Trends are then analyzed and used to project future growth. Results of this report provide valuable inputs to the elaboration of realistic energy efficiency scenarios.