Stephane de la Rue du Can

Energy Use in China: Sectoral Trends and Future Outlook

This report provides a detailed, bottom-up analysis of energy consumption in China. It recalibrates official Chinese government statistics by reallocating primary energy into categories more commonly used in international comparisons. It also provides an analysis of trends in sectoral energy consumption over the past decades. Finally, it assesses the future outlook for the critical period extending to 2020, based on assumptions of likely patterns of economic activity, availability of energy services, and energy intensities. The following are some highlights of the studys findings: * A reallocation of sector energy consumption from the 2000 official Chinese government statistics finds that: * Buildings account for 25 percent of primary energy, instead of 19 percent * Industry accounts for 61 percent of energy instead of 69 percent * Industrial energy made a large and unexpected leap between 2000-2005, growing by an astonishing 50 percent in the 3 years between 2002 and 2005. * Energy consumption in the iron and steel industry was 40 percent higher than predicted * Energy consumption in the cement industry was 54 percent higher than predicted * Overall energy intensity in the industrial sector grew between 2000 and 2003. This is largely due to internal shifts towards the most energy-intensive sub-sectors, an effect which more than counterbalances the impact of efficiency increases. * Industry accounted for 63 percent of total primary energy consumption in 2005 - it is expected to continue to dominate energy consumption through 2020, dropping only to 60 percent by that year. * Even assuming that growth rates in 2005-2020 will return to the levels of 2000-2003, industrial energy will grow from 42 EJ in 2005 to 72 EJ in 2020. * The percentage of transport energy used to carry passengers (instead of freight) will double from 37 percent to 52 percent between 2000 to 2020,. Much of this increase is due to private car ownership, which will increase by a factor of 15 from 5.1 million in 2000 to 77 million in 2020. * Residential appliance ownership will show signs of saturation in urban households. The increase in residential energy consumption will be largely driven by urbanization, since rural homes will continue to have low consumption levels. In urban households, the size of appliances will increase, but its effect will be moderated by efficiency improvements, partially driven by government standards. * Commercial energy increases will be driven both by increases in floor space and by increases in penetration of major end uses such as heating and cooling. These increases will be moderated somewhat, however, by technology changes, such as increased use of heat pumps. * Chinas Medium- and Long-Term Development plan drafted by the central government and published in 2004 calls for a quadrupling of GDP in the period from 2000-2020 with only a doubling in energy consumption during the same period. A bottom-up analysis with likely efficiency improvements finds that energy consumption will likely exceed the goal by 26.12 EJ, or 28 percent. Achievements of these goals will there fore require a more aggressive policy of encouraging energy efficiency.

Global Potential of Energy Efficiency Standards and Labeling Programs

E RNEST O RLANDO L AWRENCE B ERKELEY N ATIONAL L ABORATORY Global Potential of Energy Efficiency Standards and Labeling Programs Michael A. McNeil, Virginie E. Letschert and Stephane de la Rue du Can Environmental Energy Technologies Division June 2008 This work was supported by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry and the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan through the Collaborative Labeling and Appliance Standards Program under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231

Residential and Transport Energy Use in India: Past Trend and Future Outlook

The main contribution of this report is to characterize the underlying residential and transport sector end use energy consumption in India. Each sector was analyzed in detail. End-use sector-level information regarding adoption of particular technologies was used as a key input in a bottom-up modeling approach. The report looks at energy used over the period 1990 to 2005 and develops a baseline scenario to 2020. Moreover, the intent of this report is also to highlight available sources of data in India for the residential and transport sectors. The analysis as performed in this way reveals several interesting features of energy use in India. In the residential sector, an analysis of patterns of energy use and particular end uses shows that biomass (wood), which has traditionally been the main source of primary energy used in households, will stabilize in absolute terms. Meanwhile, due to the forces of urbanization and increased use of commercial fuels, the relative significance of biomass will be greatly diminished by 2020. At the same time, per household residential electricity consumption will likely quadruple in the 20 years between 2000 and 2020. In fact, primary electricity use will increase more rapidly than any other major fuel -- even more than oil, in spite of the fact that transport is the most rapidly growing sector. The growth in electricity demand implies that chronic outages are to be expected unless drastic improvements are made both to the efficiency of the power infrastructure and to electric end uses and industrial processes. In the transport sector, the rapid growth in personal vehicle sales indicates strong energy growth in that area. Energy use by cars is expected to grow at an annual growth rate of 11percent, increasing demand for oil considerably. In addition, oil consumption used for freight transport will also continue to increase .

India Energy Outlook: End Use Demand in India to 2020

Integrated economic models have been used to project both baseline and mitigation greenhouse gas emissions scenarios at the country and the global level. Results of these scenarios are typically presented at the sectoral level such as industry, transport, and buildings without further disaggregation. Recently, a keen interest has emerged on constructing bottom up scenarios where technical energy saving potentials can be displayed in detail (IEA, 2006b; IPCC, 2007; McKinsey, 2007). Analysts interested in particular technologies and policies, require detailed information to understand specific mitigation options in relation to business-as-usual trends. However, the limit of information available for developing countries often poses a problem. In this report, we have focus on analyzing energy use in India in greater detail. Results shown for the residential and transport sectors are taken from a previous report (de la Rue du Can, 2008). A complete picture of energy use with disaggregated levels is drawn to understand how energy is used in India and to offer the possibility to put in perspective the different sources of end use energy consumption. For each sector, drivers of energy and technology are indentified. Trends are then analyzed and used to project future growth. Results of this report provide valuable inputs to the elaboration of realistic energy efficiency scenarios.

Development of Energy Balances for the State of California

Analysts assessing energy policies and energy modelers forecasting future trends need to have access to reliable and concise energy statistics. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory evaluated several sources of California energy data, primarily from the California Energy Commission and the U.S. Energy Information Administration, to develop the California Energy Balance Database (CALEB). This database manages highly disaggregated data on energy supply, transformation, and end-use consumption for each type of energy commodity from 1990 to the most recent year available (generally 2001) in the form of an energy balance, following the methodology used by the International Energy Agency. This report presents the data used for CALEB and provides information on how the various data sources were reconciled. CALEB offers the possibility of displaying all energy flows in numerous ways (e.g.,physical units, Btus, petajoules, different levels of aggregation), facilitating comparisons among the different types of energy commodities and different end-use sectors. In addition to displaying energy data, CALEB can also be used to calculate state-level energy-related carbon dioxide emissions using the methodology of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Business Case for Energy Efficiency in Support of Climate Change Mitigation, Economic and Societal Benefits in China

E RNEST O RLANDO L AWRENCE B ERKELEY N ATIONAL L ABORATORY Business Case for Energy Efficiency in Support of Climate Change Mitigation, Economic and Societal Benefits in China Michael A. McNeil, Nicholas Bojda, Jing Ke, Yining Qin, Stephane de la Rue du Can, David Fridley, Virginie E. Letschert and James E. McMahon Environmental Energy Technologies Division August 18, 2011 This work was supported by the International Copper Association through the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

Business Case for Energy Efficiency in Support of Climate Change Mitigation, Economic and Societal Benefits in the United States

This study seeks to provide policymakers and other stakeholders with actionable information towards a road map for reducing energy consumption in the most cost-effective way. A major difference between the current study and some others is that we focus on individual equipment types that might be the subject of policies - such as labels, energy performance standards, and incentives - to affect market transformation in the short term, and on high-efficiency technology options that are available today. The approach of the study is to assess the impact of short-term actions on long-term impacts. “Short term” market transformation is assumed to occur by 2015, while “long-term” energy demand reduction impacts are assessed in 2030. In the intervening years, most but not all of the equipment studied will turn over completely. The 15-year time frame is significant for many products however, indicating that delay of implementation postpones impacts such as net economic savings and mitigation of emissions of carbon dioxide. Such delays would result in putting in place energy-wasting technologies, postponing improvement until the end of their service life, or potentially resulting in expensive investment either in additional energy supplies or in early replacement to achieve future energy or emissions reduction targets.

Strategies for Low Carbon Growth In India: Industry and Non Residential Sectors

This report analyzed the potential for increasing energy efficiency and reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) in the non-residential building and the industrial sectors in India. The first two sections describe the research and analysis supporting the establishment of baseline energy consumption using a bottom up approach for the non residential sector and for the industry sector respectively. The third section covers the explanation of a modeling framework where GHG emissions are projected according to a baseline scenario and alternative scenarios that account for the implementation of cleaner technology.

Spatial Disaggregation of CO2 Emissions for the State of California

This report allocates Californias 2004 statewide carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fuel combustion to the 58 counties in the state. The total emissions are allocated to counties using several different methods, based on the availability of data for each sector. Data on natural gas use in all sectors are available by county. Fuel consumption by power and combined heat and power generation plants is available for individual plants. Bottom-up models were used to distribute statewide fuel sales-based CO2 emissions by county for on-road vehicles, aircraft, and watercraft. All other sources of CO2 emissions were allocated to counties based on surrogates for activity. CO2 emissions by sector were estimated for each county, as well as for the South Coast Air Basin. It is important to note that emissions from some sources, notably electricity generation, were allocated to counties based on where the emissions were generated, rather than where the electricity was actually consumed. In addition, several sources of CO2 emissions, such as electricity generated in and imported from other states and international marine bunker fuels, were not included in the analysis. California Air Resource Board (CARB) does not include CO2 emissions from interstate and international air travel, in the official California greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory, so those emissions were allocated to counties for informational purposes only. Los Angeles County is responsible for by far the largest CO2 emissions from combustion in the state: 83 Million metric tonnes (Mt), or 24percent of total CO2 emissions in California, more than twice that of the next county (Kern, with 38 Mt, or 11percent of statewide emissions). The South Coast Air Basin accounts for 122 MtCO2, or 35percent of all emissions from fuel combustion in the state. The distribution of emissions by sector varies considerably by county, with on-road motor vehicles dominating most counties, but large stationary sources and rail travel dominating in other counties. The CO2 emissions data by county and source are available upon request.

Improving the Carbon Dioxide Emission Estimates from the Combustion of Fossil Fuels in California

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel combustion account for 80 percent of California greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The first part of this report evaluates accounting for CO2 emissions in the existing state inventory based on the California Energy Balance database (CALEB). The estimated uncertainty for total CO2 emissions ranges between -21 and +37 million metric tons (Mt), or -6% and +11% of total CO2 emissions. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) GHG inventory did not use CALEB data for all combustion estimates and therefore the range in uncertainty estimated in this report does not apply to the CARB’s GHG inventory. Additional data sources used by CARB in the development of its GHG inventory are summarized in this report for consideration in future updates to CALEB. The second part of this report allocates California’s 2004 statewide CO2 emissions from fuel combustion to the 58 counties in the state and describes them through figures, maps, and graphs.