Michel Schilperoord

Spatial models of political competition with endogenous political parties.

Two important human action selection processes are the choice by citizens of parties to support in elections and the choice by party leaders of policy ‘packages’ offered to citizens in order to attract this support. Having reviewed approaches analysing these choices and the reasons for doing this using the methodology of agent-based modelling, we extend a recent agent-based model of party competition to treat the number and identity of political parties as an output of, rather than an input to, the process of party competition. Party birth is modelled as an endogenous change of agent type from citizen to party leader, which requires describing citizen dissatisfaction with the history of the system. Endogenous birth and death of parties transforms into a dynamic system even in an environment where all agents have otherwise non-responsive adaptive rules. A key parameter is the survival threshold, with lower thresholds leaving citizens on average less dissatisfied. Paradoxically, the adaptive rule most successful for party leaders in winning votes makes citizens on average less happy than under other policy-selection rules.

Modelling societal transitions with agent transformation

Transition models explain long-term and large-scale processes fundamentally changing the structure of a societal system. Our concern is that most transition models are too static. Although they capture a move of focus from static equilibria to transitions between dynamic equilibria, they are still rooted in an “equilibriumist” approach. Improvement is possible with agent-based models that give attention to endogenous system processes called “transformation processes”. These models can render far more dynamic pictures of societal systems in transition, and are no longer remote from descriptions in the emerging transition literature.

Towards a Prototype Policy Laboratory for Simulating Innovation Networks

This paper presents an approach for designing and building a computational laboratory for research and innovation policy simulation, centred around the SKIN model. The aim of the paper is to bring together empirical and computational research for policy use. The SKIN model will be embedded in a workflow and an interfacing infrastructure that supports rich user interaction with the lab’s simulation database.