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Crescimento econômico em economias emergentes selecionadas: Brasil, Rússia, Índia, China (BRIC) e África do Sul

Economic growth in selected emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China (BRIC) and South Africa The paper investigates on theoretical and empirical grounds the main determinants of economic growth for Brazil, Russia, India, China (BRIC) and South Africa. The empirical results from the variance decomposition analysis (VDA) for the real GDP growth reveal a primary role played by the investment rate and inflation to explain economic growth in these countries, but other factors, such as the real interest rate (Brazil, India and South Africa), the real effective exchange rate (China and India), FDI flows (China and South Africa) and population growth (India and Russia) are also important, regardless of their lower relative contribution.

Exportações e crescimento nas economias africanas

This paper analyzes the relationship between exports and the African economies real per capita GDP growth rate. It is based on the argument that not only volume, but also the exports composition is relevant to explain economic growth. In the African countries case, the export basket is very concentrated in primary goods, with a high share of oil, minerals and agricultural products. In this sense, our objective consists in investigate whether the type of exported product also contributes to African growth. To do this, the paper uses the panel data methodology for 52 countries in Africa in the period 1990-2014. The results suggest positive export effects on the African countries growth in the period. However, only oil and mineral exports are relevant, while agricultural products do not seem to contribute to the PIB per capita growth of those economies.

INDÚSTRIA E CRESCIMENTO: UMA ANÁLISE DE PAINEL PARA OS ESTADOS BRASILEIROS

The main goal of this work is to develop an empirical investigation for the Brazilian States real per capita GDP growth from 1992 to 2009 using panel data and fixed/random effect and GMM estimation. The econometric results indicate the existence of a positive and significant relation for industry and manufactory industry GDP, the relative participation of the industry in the valued added, but not for the relative participation of the manufactory industry for State GDP growth. The average schooling years have a positive impact on State GDP growth and there is evidence that States with higher (lower) current and capital expenditures in average have lower (higher) GDP growth rates. Finally, State export performance and inflation are not statistically significant to explain differences in growth rates.

Indústria e crescimento econômico: evidências para países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento

The work develops an empirical investigation on the relevance of industry / GDP, manufacture / GDP and industrial employment / total employment on long run growth using panel data. The results indicate the existence of a direct and significant relation for industry (manufacture) share to GDP and industrial employment for long run growth. The annual impact on growth of a 10% increase, over a five year period, in the industry share to GDP (manufacture share to GDP) ranges from 0.19% to 0.32% (0.2% to 0.4%) and for the industrial employment / total employment it varies from 0.3% to 0.5%.

Tipos de commodities, taxa de câmbio e crescimento econômico: evidências da maldição dos recursos naturais para o Brasil

The natural resource curse literature argues that commodities exports promote lower economic growth rates. This paper suggests that this result depends on the type of commodity analyzed. This paper uses Vector Autoregressive and Impulse Response Functions to investigate the existence of negative effects between food, raw materials, minerals and energy exports on Brazilian economic growth and real exchange rate, based in period 2000-2011. The results indicate some evidence of the natural resources curse in Brazil, since food, raw materials and minerals contribute to explain the lower rates of economic growth and exchange rate appreciation. However, such evidence is weak because they occur with some lag and have short duration.

Política monetária, crise financeira e Estado: uma abordagem keynesiana

O presente trabalho discute a teoria monetaria da producao de Keynes e o papel a ser desempenhado pelo Estado na economia capitalista moderna e empresarial, principalmente em momentos de crise generalizada, como a do mercado subprime dos Estados Unidos, vivenciada no periodo recente. Para isso, o trabalho descreve a abordagem da economia monetaria keynesiana e apresenta a posicao favoravel do economista britânico com relacao a acao do Estado na economia capitalista, dada a sua incapacidade de autorregulacao. Com base nas repercussoes da crise financeira recente, propoe-se uma discussao sobre a posicao assumida pelo Estado para amenizar os efeitos perversos da crise. Nesse sentido, o trabalho analisa se as ferramentas que o governo vem utilizando na implementacao das politicas economicas pensadas no contexto da crise financeira internacional tem uma fundamentacao keynesiana. Os principais resultados apontam indicios de uma politica economica de carater mais expansionista, fundadas em politicas de liquidez, reducao de impostos e elevacao dos gastos. Conclui-se que, em condicoes de instabilidade, e preciso considerar um papel mais ativo do Estado no enfrentamento da crise e na reversao da desconfianca dos agentes economicos. Palavras-chave: Keynes, Estado, crise internacional.