Mustafa Yeter

Overlapping Political Budget Cycles in the Legislative and the Executive

We advance the literature on political budget cycles by testing separately for cycles in expenditures for elections in the legislative and the executive. Using municipal data, we can separately identify these cycles and account for general year effects. For the executive branch, we show that it is important whether the incumbent re-runs. To account for the potential endogeneity associated with this decision, we apply a unique instrumental variables approach based on age and pension eligibility rules. We find sizable and significant effects in expenditures before council elections and before joint elections when the incumbent re-runs.

Cultural Influences on the Fertility Behaviour of First- and Second-Generation Immigrants in Germany

Based on a 1% sample of the German population, we study how fertility rates in the country of origin — a proxy for cultural imprint — influence the fertility outcomes of first- and second-generation female immigrants. We use both total fertility rates in the year of migration and a new measure of completed cohort fertility rates in the countries of origin as well as direct survey measures of fertility norms. Our large data set allows us to focus on a relatively narrow range for age at migration and to estimate models that rely on within-country variation only, leading to more credible identification. We find a statistically significant, sizeable and robust effect of country-of-origin fertility rates on fertility outcomes. The effect is strongest for the first generation and becomes weaker, though still statistically significant, for “generation 1.5�? (migrants arriving as children) and the second generation. It is stronger for women with low education and for women who live with a partner from the same country of origin.