Paolo Agnolucci

Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health

The 2015 Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change has been formed to map out the impacts of climate change, and the necessary policy responses, in order to ensure the highest attainable stand ...

A review of Chinese CO2 emission projections to 2030: the role of economic structure and policy

The projections of 89 scenarios from 12 different models for the CO2 emissions of China to 2030 are reviewed, along with wider examinations of lessons from the history of energy forecasting in OECD countries, and of the Chinese macroeconomic situation. Even by 2030, emissions in the scenarios span a factor of almost 2.5, indicating significant range and uncertainty. Statistical analysis of Kaya components suggests the carbon intensity of energy supply to be the strongest determining factor. However, most scenarios assume that industry1 continues to account for more than 50% of total final energy demand. This is in contrast both to historical examples, which have consistently shown economies shifting from energy-intensive industrial bases to service-based structures as income per capita rises, and to recent Chinese policy statements, which reflect a similar ambition. It is also highly salient that major failures in energy and emissions projections can frequently be accounted for in retrospect by failures to anticipate such major economic structural shifts. In conclusion, while the future trajectory of Chinese emissions remains profoundly uncertain, the potential for a significant Chinese macroeconomic transition and its implications for the scale and structure of energy demand will be a crucial factor, to which energy-climate models must pay far more attention. Policy relevance The dramatic growth of Chinese emissions since 2000 has become a major factor in global emission prospects and the international political agenda. Many models project rapid continued emissions growth, but an apparent halt in Chinese emissions in 2014 has amplified debate. Projections and policy need to recognise fundamental uncertainties in emission prospects, because in addition to energy/climate-specific policies, they depend on the progress in Chinese macroeconomic reforms, which are poorly represented in the models we survey. Global projections, the international process, and the design of Chinas own policies (most obviously, its national cap-and-trade system) need to cope with the possibility of continued growth to peaking in 2030 (the central commitment in Chinas Intended Nationally Determined Contribution), but must also be prepared to exploit and encourage the possibilities of low-carbon development and much earlier peaking.

Towards a sustainable hydrogen economy: Optimisation-based framework for hydrogen infrastructure development

This work studies the development of a sustainable hydrogen infrastructure that supports the transition towards a low-carbon transport system in the United Kingdom (UK). The future hydrogen demand is forecasted over time using a logistic diffusion model, which reaches 50% of the market share by 2070. The problem is solved using an extension of SHIPMod, an optimisation-based framework that consists of a multi-period spatially-explicit mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) formulation. The optimisation model combines the infrastructure elements required throughout the different phases of the transition, namely economies of scale, road and pipeline transportation modes and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, in order to minimise the present value of the total infrastructure cost using a discounted cash-flow analysis. The results show that the combination of all these elements in the mathematical formulation renders optimal solutions with the gradual infrastructure investments over time required for the transition towards a sustainable hydrogen economy.

Technological transitions and Strategic Niche Management: the case of the hydrogen economy

There is considerable interest in the prospects for a large-scale transition to hydrogen as an energy source. This paper assesses these prospects through consideration of technological transition theory and especially the likelihood of hydrogen use becoming widespread through Strategic Niche Management (SNM). The paper shows that current niches show few signs of the characteristics that are necessary for niche expansion to the extent required, and concludes that at present hydrogen technologies still need substantial R&D support resulting in a number of scientific breakthroughs before they will become viable in competitive markets.

New lessons for technology policy and climate change: investment for innovation

The direction of UK energy policy requires a renewed impetus if the goal of climate change stabilization is to be met. Cost is not the main issue: a transformation to a low-carbon energy system may be no more expensive than meeting future energy demands with fossil fuels. Institutional barriers are preventing the large-scale adoption of the necessary technologies. New institutions to promote low-carbon technologies have not yet led to investment on the necessary scale. Further changes to the operation of the UK electricity markets to create a ‘level playing field’ for small-scale and intermittent generation are necessary. UK policy can contribute to international agreements following on from the Kyoto Accord, which also need to address the institutional barriers to energy technology development and transfer.

The causal impact of economic growth on material use in Europe

ABSTRACT Several scholars and policy-makers have claimed that Europe, and Western Europe in particular, has managed to ‘decouple’ economic growth from material use. We identify and address one major limitation in the existing literature – failure to take the endogeneity of economic growth into account. Based on a panel data-set of 32 European countries from 2000 to 2014, we estimate the causal impact of gross domestic product (GDP) on domestic material consumption (DMC) applying an instrumental variable approach. We use the number of storm occurrences as an instrument for GDP, which we show is both relevant and valid. Our results provide new evidence that increasing the GDP growth rate causes the DMC growth rate to increase for Western Europe, whereas the effect is insignificant for the Eastern European economies and Europe as a whole. As our results partly question current wisdom on the achievements of ‘decoupling’, especially among European policy-makers, we offer two explanations that are consistent with these results.

Towards a sustainable hydrogen economy: role of carbon price for achieving GHG emission targets

Abstract This work studies the role of carbon price in the development of a sustainable hydrogen infrastructure that satisfies the concerted greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets in the United Kingdom (UK) for the next decades. In particular, the optimal design of a hydrogen infrastructure for the transport sector in the UK that leads a transition towards a sustainable hydrogen economy is sought. The problem is solved with an optimisation-based framework consisting of a multi-period spatially-explicit mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) formulation. The future hydrogen demand is predicted according to a logistic diffusion model that reaches the 50% of the market share in 2070. Additionally, UK carbon price policies that penalise carbon emissions are incorporated into the economic objective function to be minimised, which consists of the total cost for constructing and operating the infrastructure. By comparing the CO2 emissions obtained in the optimisation problem with the carbon budgets set by the UK Government to succeed in the 2050 European GHG emission directives, it is possible to determine the pertinence of carbon prices.

Designing optimal infrastructures for delivering hydrogen to consumers

Abstract The design of future hydrogen infrastructure must take into account spatial planning and the geographic positioning of production facilities in relation to demand. A state-of-the-art review of hydrogen supply chain models reveals that there are important trade-offs between centralized production, with more extensive delivery infrastructure, and decentralized production, which has lower distribution costs but higher production costs. This chapter presents the results of a UK scenario case study of hydrogen deployment using a state-of-the-art spatially explicit model, resulting in key insights for prospective hydrogen system planners.