Paulo de Andrade Jacinto

Causalidade entre renda e saúde: uma análise através da abordagem de dados em painel com os estados do Brasil

This paper aims to analyze causality relationship between income and health, seeking to control the potential differences of this relation over the Brazilian territory. Three tests for Granger causality in panel data, proposed respectively by Holtz-Eakin et al. (1988), Granger and Huang (1997) and Hurlin (2005, 2007), are applied to a database of Brazilian states over the period 1981-2007. The main results show that conclusions can be misleading when they are based on the causality tests with homogeneous structure parameters. And so, the test proposed by Hurlin (2005, 2007), which controls the different types of heterogeneity, indicates that in Brazil the evidence is clearer for causality in direction from health to income.

Efeitos das condições macroeconômicas sobre a saúde no Brasil

OBJETIVO: Analisar a relacao entre condicoes macroeconomicas e saude no Brasil. METODOS: Para analisar o impacto do emprego e a renda sobre a mortalidade, utilizou-se um painel de dados para o Brasil em nivel estadual para o periodo de 1981-2002. Como proxy para saude, foram utilizadas as informacoes sobre a taxa de mortalidade obtidas do Sistema de Informacoes sobre Mortalidade (SIM). Para as condicoes macroeconomicas, foram empregadas as variaveis emprego e renda media e para os aspectos socioeconomicos, considerou-se a taxa de analfabetismo. Os efeitos das variaveis foram estimados por modelos estatico e dinâmico a fim de analisar duas hipoteses: 1) a hipotese de Ruhm, que sugere que elevadas taxas de emprego e de renda estao associadas com maior taxa de mortalidade e 2) a hipotese de Brenner, que indica que elevadas taxas de emprego e de renda estao relacionadas a menores taxas de mortalidade. RESULTADOS: A relacao entre a taxa de mortalidade (proxy utilizada para a saude) com as condicoes macroeconomicas (mensurada por meio da taxa de emprego) se mostrou negativa. As estimativas indicaram que a taxa de mortalidade total foi maior nos periodos de recessao economica, sugerindo que a medida que as condicoes macroeconomicas melhoram, aumentando o nivel de emprego na economia, ocorreu uma queda na taxa de mortalidade. A estimativa para a relacao entre a taxa de analfabetismo (proxy utilizada para o nivel educacional) e a taxa de mortalidade mostrou o papel que maiores niveis de escolaridade tem na melhora da saude. CONCLUSOES: Os resultados encontrados a partir do modelo estatico e dinâmico para a relacao entre a taxa de mortalidade e as condicoes macroeconomicas favorecem a aceitacao da hipotese de Brenner, em que elevadas taxas de emprego estao relacionadas a menores taxas de mortalidade.OBJECTIVE To analyze the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and health in Brazil. METHODS The analysis of the impact of employment and income on mortality in Brazil was based on panel data from Brazilian states between 1981 and 2002. Mortality rates obtained from the national mortality database was used as a proxy for health status, whereas the variables employment, income, and illiteracy rates were used as proxies for macroeconomic and socioeconomic conditions. Static and dynamic models were applied for the analysis of two hypotheses: a) there is a positive relationship between mortality rates and income and employment, as suggested by Ruhm; b) there is a negative relationship between mortality rates and income and employment, as suggested by Brenner. RESULTS There was found a negative relationship between mortality rates (proxy for health) and macroeconomic conditions (measured by employment rate). The estimates indicated that the overall mortality rate was higher during economic recession, suggesting that as macroeconomic conditions improved, increasing employment rates, there was a decrease in the mortality rate. The estimate for the relationship between illiteracy (proxy for education level) and mortality rate showed that higher levels of education can improve health. CONCLUSIONS The results from the static and dynamic models support Brenners hypothesis that there is a negative relationship between mortality rates and macroeconomic conditions.

Effects of macroeconomic conditions on health in Brazil

OBJETIVO: Analisar a relacao entre condicoes macroeconomicas e saude no Brasil. METODOS: Para analisar o impacto do emprego e a renda sobre a mortalidade, utilizou-se um painel de dados para o Brasil em nivel estadual para o periodo de 1981-2002. Como proxy para saude, foram utilizadas as informacoes sobre a taxa de mortalidade obtidas do Sistema de Informacoes sobre Mortalidade (SIM). Para as condicoes macroeconomicas, foram empregadas as variaveis emprego e renda media e para os aspectos socioeconomicos, considerou-se a taxa de analfabetismo. Os efeitos das variaveis foram estimados por modelos estatico e dinâmico a fim de analisar duas hipoteses: 1) a hipotese de Ruhm, que sugere que elevadas taxas de emprego e de renda estao associadas com maior taxa de mortalidade e 2) a hipotese de Brenner, que indica que elevadas taxas de emprego e de renda estao relacionadas a menores taxas de mortalidade. RESULTADOS: A relacao entre a taxa de mortalidade (proxy utilizada para a saude) com as condicoes macroeconomicas (mensurada por meio da taxa de emprego) se mostrou negativa. As estimativas indicaram que a taxa de mortalidade total foi maior nos periodos de recessao economica, sugerindo que a medida que as condicoes macroeconomicas melhoram, aumentando o nivel de emprego na economia, ocorreu uma queda na taxa de mortalidade. A estimativa para a relacao entre a taxa de analfabetismo (proxy utilizada para o nivel educacional) e a taxa de mortalidade mostrou o papel que maiores niveis de escolaridade tem na melhora da saude. CONCLUSOES: Os resultados encontrados a partir do modelo estatico e dinâmico para a relacao entre a taxa de mortalidade e as condicoes macroeconomicas favorecem a aceitacao da hipotese de Brenner, em que elevadas taxas de emprego estao relacionadas a menores taxas de mortalidade.OBJECTIVE To analyze the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and health in Brazil. METHODS The analysis of the impact of employment and income on mortality in Brazil was based on panel data from Brazilian states between 1981 and 2002. Mortality rates obtained from the national mortality database was used as a proxy for health status, whereas the variables employment, income, and illiteracy rates were used as proxies for macroeconomic and socioeconomic conditions. Static and dynamic models were applied for the analysis of two hypotheses: a) there is a positive relationship between mortality rates and income and employment, as suggested by Ruhm; b) there is a negative relationship between mortality rates and income and employment, as suggested by Brenner. RESULTS There was found a negative relationship between mortality rates (proxy for health) and macroeconomic conditions (measured by employment rate). The estimates indicated that the overall mortality rate was higher during economic recession, suggesting that as macroeconomic conditions improved, increasing employment rates, there was a decrease in the mortality rate. The estimate for the relationship between illiteracy (proxy for education level) and mortality rate showed that higher levels of education can improve health. CONCLUSIONS The results from the static and dynamic models support Brenners hypothesis that there is a negative relationship between mortality rates and macroeconomic conditions.

A closer look at the skilled labor demand increase in Brazil

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to evaluate skilled labor demand determinants in Brazil, considering alternatives explanations: changes in relative wages, non-homothetic technology output growth and skill-biased technical change. Design/methodology/approach - This study relies on a rich and unique matched employer-employee data set for manufacturing sector, from 1996 to 2003. The analysis considers a translog functional form labor demand system estimated using seemingly unrelated regression and instrumental variables to control for possible measurement errors and wages and output endogeneity. Findings - The demand function estimates suggest that: labor demand underlying technology is non-homothetic, research and development investment is biased toward skilled workers, the non-homothetic technology is not skill biased so output changes contributed positively for skilled labor increase, relative wages played a significant role and international trade has little explanatory power explaining labor demand shifts. Originality/value - This is the first paper that considers alternative explanations for the increase in the demand of skilled workers for manufacturing in Brazil simultaneously: changes in relative wages, output changes with non-homothetic technology, skill-biased technical change and, to a lesser extent, international trade. The study challenges current empirical evidence that considers trade and trade liberalization as the main factor explaining labor demand shifts.

Crescimento pró-pobre ou empobrecedor? Uma análise para os estados brasileiros, no período 1995-2011

This paper aims to assess whether the Brazilian states showed a pro-poor nature growth, i.e., a growth accompanied by a reduction in income inequality and increased levels of average income. The method used was the one proposed by Duclos (2009), which allows for more robust results for the class of pro-poor measures under different poverty lines. Two different periods, 1995-2003 and 2003-2011, based on the PNAD microdata, were considered. The results indicated that there was an improvement in the welfare of the poor in the whole period, with greater emphasis on the sub-period 2003-2011. Evidence shows that, since 2003, there has beena significant change in the quality of economic growth, which has greatly benefited the poor population of the urban area. However this movement has been accompanied by an increase in the number of states whose growth has brought the impoverishment of the poor population in the rural areas.

FATORES QUE INFLUENCIAM O DESEMPENHO ESCOLAR NO ESTADO DO RIO GRANDE DO SUL: UMA ANÁLISE COM REGRESSÕES QUANTÍLICAS

In the past few decades, education has been highlighted by the economic literature as an important mean for growth and economic development. The present study aims to identify the determinants for school achievements at Rio Grande do Sul state for the year 2007 through quantile regression estimation. To that end, two different analysis are made, one considering average grades; and another more desegregated, considering individual students proficiency and intra-state regional heterogeneity. The first analysis showed that teachers, students and school director’s characteristics are the prime determinant for average school performance. In regard to individual achievements, socio-economic matters revealed significant effect. Furthermore, significant regional differences on school performance were observed, indicating that to participate in a particular Council of Regional Development impacts individual proficiency.

Uma retomada da discussão sobre a sustentabilidade da política fiscal do Rio Grande do Sul

This paper investigates the sustainability of the fiscal policy in the state of Rio Grande do Sul for two periods: 1970 to 1997 and 1970 to 2003. From 1970 to 2003, the fiscal policy was characterized by primary deficits and the accumulation of public debt. Regardless of the deterioration of its tax situation, the State never determined the non-payment of its public debt, which suggests the sustainability of the fiscal policy during the two periods. Co-integration tests support the evidence of sustainability during the periods in question.

Efectos de las condiciones macroeconómicas sobre la salud en Brasil

OBJETIVO: Analisar a relacao entre condicoes macroeconomicas e saude no Brasil. METODOS: Para analisar o impacto do emprego e a renda sobre a mortalidade, utilizou-se um painel de dados para o Brasil em nivel estadual para o periodo de 1981-2002. Como proxy para saude, foram utilizadas as informacoes sobre a taxa de mortalidade obtidas do Sistema de Informacoes sobre Mortalidade (SIM). Para as condicoes macroeconomicas, foram empregadas as variaveis emprego e renda media e para os aspectos socioeconomicos, considerou-se a taxa de analfabetismo. Os efeitos das variaveis foram estimados por modelos estatico e dinâmico a fim de analisar duas hipoteses: 1) a hipotese de Ruhm, que sugere que elevadas taxas de emprego e de renda estao associadas com maior taxa de mortalidade e 2) a hipotese de Brenner, que indica que elevadas taxas de emprego e de renda estao relacionadas a menores taxas de mortalidade. RESULTADOS: A relacao entre a taxa de mortalidade (proxy utilizada para a saude) com as condicoes macroeconomicas (mensurada por meio da taxa de emprego) se mostrou negativa. As estimativas indicaram que a taxa de mortalidade total foi maior nos periodos de recessao economica, sugerindo que a medida que as condicoes macroeconomicas melhoram, aumentando o nivel de emprego na economia, ocorreu uma queda na taxa de mortalidade. A estimativa para a relacao entre a taxa de analfabetismo (proxy utilizada para o nivel educacional) e a taxa de mortalidade mostrou o papel que maiores niveis de escolaridade tem na melhora da saude. CONCLUSOES: Os resultados encontrados a partir do modelo estatico e dinâmico para a relacao entre a taxa de mortalidade e as condicoes macroeconomicas favorecem a aceitacao da hipotese de Brenner, em que elevadas taxas de emprego estao relacionadas a menores taxas de mortalidade.OBJECTIVE To analyze the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and health in Brazil. METHODS The analysis of the impact of employment and income on mortality in Brazil was based on panel data from Brazilian states between 1981 and 2002. Mortality rates obtained from the national mortality database was used as a proxy for health status, whereas the variables employment, income, and illiteracy rates were used as proxies for macroeconomic and socioeconomic conditions. Static and dynamic models were applied for the analysis of two hypotheses: a) there is a positive relationship between mortality rates and income and employment, as suggested by Ruhm; b) there is a negative relationship between mortality rates and income and employment, as suggested by Brenner. RESULTS There was found a negative relationship between mortality rates (proxy for health) and macroeconomic conditions (measured by employment rate). The estimates indicated that the overall mortality rate was higher during economic recession, suggesting that as macroeconomic conditions improved, increasing employment rates, there was a decrease in the mortality rate. The estimate for the relationship between illiteracy (proxy for education level) and mortality rate showed that higher levels of education can improve health. CONCLUSIONS The results from the static and dynamic models support Brenners hypothesis that there is a negative relationship between mortality rates and macroeconomic conditions.

Dinâmica do emprego e custos de ajustamento na indústria do Rio Grande do Sul

We evaluate the structure of adjustment costs in manufacturing employment using Brazilian firm data. While quadratic adjustment costs are widely used this type of costs are not compatible with the extensive within sector gross job flows. Following Varejao and Portugal (2007), we use survival analysis as an empirical tool, as previous results associate non-convex adjustment costs with inactivity time dependent exit probabilities. Our estimates using quarterly firm level data from manufacturing industries, from 1991 to 2004 soundly reject time independent exit probabilities from labor adjustment inactivity, a result that is compatible with non-convex adjustment costs.